Our Professional NBA Tips, Analysis & Staking Plan 4/6

Results:

• 101.60 Units Profit
• 15.8% ROI

• View Results Spreadsheets

Blazers vs Nuggets

Oh Nurkic. His fouling honestly holds the key to the rest of this series. Blazers starters are absolutely spanking the Nuggets with a +10.4 net rating but it all falls apart when Nurkic gets himself into foul trouble as they just have no other viable option. He’s been super productive against this awful Nuggets D with a 17.0/14.1/3.6 per 36 line, and as I mentioned last game the Blazers are now matching his minutes with Jokic which should lead to somewhere between 36-40 (of course, all importantly, providing he stays out of foul trouble). They may get a friendlier whistle at home today and it’s also worth noting that Nurk knows the importance of staying out of foul trouble so hopefully he can eliminate the stupid fouls he gets away from protecting the rim. Should cruise past this line if he does play the minutes and has so much upside.

• Jusuf Nurkic over 27.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.80 with B365 – 1.1 units
• Jusuf Nurkic over 34.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 4.00 with TAB – 0.4 units

Always feels a touch dirty betting guys after career nights, but Monte looked too good to pass up on. I’ve given up on trusting Malone to do the right thing but it is glaringly obvious to me how much better the Nuggets offence looked with Monte on the court and it’s been like that all series long. He’s better than both Facu and Rivers so it’s been annoying to see him play less than those two, but the big breakout could force Malone’s hand. Think he plays 30+ here. Will likely be Facu’s minutes he replaces, so he’s a nice under bet also.

• Monte Morris over 19.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.92 with Sportsbet – 0.7 units
• Morris over 19.5 PRA / Facu UNDER 16.5 PRA @ 3.25 with B365 – 0.3 units

Lakers vs Suns

I don’t think Drummond starts here, which opens up a ton of minutes downside. Having a bit on in case I’m right.

• Andre Drummond UNDER 15.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 4.00 with Sportsbet – 0.2 units

Staking Plan – 2.7 units out

• Jusuf Nurkic over 27.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.80 with B365 – 1.1 units
• Jusuf Nurkic over 34.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 4.00 with TAB – 0.4 units
• Monte Morris over 19.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.92 with Sportsbet – 0.7 units
• Morris over 19.5 PRA / Facu UNDER 16.5 PRA @ 3.25 with B365 – 0.3 units
• Andre Drummond UNDER 15.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 4.00 with Sportsbet – 0.2 units

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