Our Professional NBA Tips, Analysis & Staking Plan 4/2

Season Results:

• 125 Wins / 194 Losses
• 88.65 Units Profit
• +48.11% ROI
• View Results Spreadsheets

**Been caught up with some stuff this morning so apologies for the limited write ups.

OKC vs Rockets 12:10pm AEST

Can’t work out why this line isn’t bigger. Shai is an absolutely massive loss for this Thunder team as he initiates almost all of their offence with a league 2nd 23.4 drives per game (Luka 24.1). They are seriously going to struggle creating any offence against this Rockets team who have the #1 ranked defence by a considerable margin at 103.6 (2nd Lakers 104.9) since the Harden trade. The On/Off splits tell the story with Shai as OKC go from a 108.4 offensive rating with him on the court all the way down to 94.9 when he’s off. George Hill has a lot of overlap with Shai so that may have some bearing on these numbers, but they have a 111.4 offensive rating with him on the court which drops to 99.7 with him off, and he’s out here as well. They played just 2 days ago and Rockets won by 30 points with Shai in the lineup. Rockets won’t shoot over 50% from 3 again but I think they’ll win this one on the defensive end.

• Houston Rockets -6.5 @ 1.97 with Sportsbet – 2 units

Knicks vs Bulls 12:10pm AEST

“It’s very hard to trust Thibs but this is too good a spot for Quickley to ignore and he is absolutely scorching at the moment with 3 25 point games over his last 4 including a 31 point career high. His usage has skyrocketed at 32.9% with is 7th in the league sitting in between Trae Young and Damian Lillard. He isn’t playing many minutes and that probably won’t change here but he has another shot at a huge night. He has been awesome in the PNR this season in the 82nd percentile while completing 44.8% of his plays. As mentioned last time Bulls played against Dame, they have by far the worst PNR handler defence in the league allowing 1.08 PPP with a big gap to second in the Wolves at 0.98. They are also allowing 4.4 more points per game than the Wizards in second”

Write up from last game above. Same matchup and although he just scraped in for us, it was extremely encouraging to see him play a season high 30 minutes. His minutes the last 4 are 22,24,27,30 so they are trending in the right direction. Feel pretty confident about his minutes here and gets the good matchup again so if he gets going early could be in for a big night.

• Immanuel Quickley over 19.5 Points + Assists @ 1.95 with Sportsbet – 1.2 units
• Immanuel Quickley over 19.5 Points @ 3.60 with Sportsbet – 0.2 units
• Immanuel Quickley over 24.5 Points @ 11.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units

“Think we have to come back to him here as even though the matchup isn’t great, the role is too good to ignore. He continues to absolutely smash when he’s playing the centre spot at 35.4 points per 36 (no young) and 26.0 per 36 (with young). I was a little surprised to see him getting some straight C minutes against Kanter last game but should have a much easier time of it here as Mitch Rob, Noel, Taj don’t pose anywhere near as much of an offensive threat. Awesome to see him play 35 minutes in 2 of the last 3 games.”

Write up from last game above. Going to keep riding him. Has been so good in his centre minutes as mentioned and has played 30+ minutes in 7 of his last 8 games. Back to back 30 points games and is oozing confidence right now.

• Lauri Markkanen over 19.5 Points @ 2.00 with B365 – 1.2 units
• Lauri Markkanen over 24.5 Points @ 4.30 with B365 – 0.3 units

Spurs vs Timberwolves 12:40pm AEST

He’s a favourite of mine and everything has lined up perfectly for him here. His minutes have been quite inconsistent this season but with no Gay or Aldridge today, he should be a lock for mid 30s in a matchup as good as it gets. Has a really strong 20.7/10.3/2.5 per 36 line sans Aldridge. Some weird variance across the board with his lines so am just going to take his points line.

• Keldon Johnson over 14.5 Points @ 1.80 with Topsport – 1.4 units

Yet to really see extended minutes this season from him, but Pop doesn’t really have any other choice today with Aldridge, Gay and Eubanks all out. He has a strong 9.4/11.1/3.5 per 36 line this season and gets the gun matchup against the Wolves who allow the most rebounds to opposing centres on the season.

• Jakob Poeltl over 7.5 Rebounds @ 1.77 with Topsport – 1.2 units

Staking Plan – 7.6 units out

• Houston Rockets -6.5 @ 1.97 with Sportsbet – 2 units
• Immanuel Quickley over 19.5 Points + Assists @ 1.95 with Sportsbet – 1.2 units
• Immanuel Quickley over 19.5 Points @ 3.60 with Sportsbet – 0.2 units
• Immanuel Quickley over 24.5 Points @ 11.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units
• Lauri Markkanen over 19.5 Points @ 2.00 with B365 – 1.2 units
• Lauri Markkanen over 24.5 Points @ 4.30 with B365 – 0.3 units
• Keldon Johnson over 14.5 Points @ 1.80 with Topsport – 1.4 units
• Jakob Poeltl over 7.5 Rebounds @ 1.77 with Topsport – 1.2 units
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