Our Professional NBA Tips, Analysis & Staking Plan 4/1

Season Results:

• 26 Wins / 47 Losses
• 6.03 Units Profit
• +13.77% ROI

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Nuggets vs Timberwolves 11:10am AEST

MPJ is out again tomorrow in health protocols and we got a small sample of how the rotation would shake out without him in their game against the Suns. Jamal went off with a huge 31/4/5 line in a massive 40 minutes. Jokic battled foul trouble throughout so I would say that had a bit of bearing on Jamal’s 40 mins, but I feel pretty good about him playing 36-38 if Wolves can keep it close. I don’t usually like targeting guys which these lines where there’s big blowout potential, but this spot is too good to ignore for him. It’s just an 85 minute sample, but he’s got a 2.7% usage bump without MPJ (up to a team high 28.1%) this season putting up 27.7 points per 36. Gets a cupcake matchup today against the awful Wolves backcourt who have given up the most points to PGs this season. They are ranked 9th in pace and 28th in defensive rating.

• Jamal Murray over 22.5 Points @ 1.87 with TAB – 1 unit

Wolves have been blown out 3 straight games, so he hasn’t seen above 28 minutes but he led them in minutes last game and was second the game prior. He also led their team in minutes in their win agains the Jazz getting up to 38, so if we get a full game here I wouldn’t be surprised to see him get back into the mid to high 30s. The first blow-out loss was on a b2b against the Lakers, then they had to verse the Clippers before coming up against a Wizards team who shot 55% from the field and 48% from 3 against them. I am by no means saying this Wolves team is good because they aren’t, just they’ve had an unfavourable few matchups and may be able to stick around with this Denver team who are dead last in defence so far with a 116.2 rating. He’s had a 23.1% usage over the last 3 (since KAT has gone down) and has covered this line in 4 of the 5 games averaging 22.2 points per 36 which included an 8 point stinker against the Lakers.

• Malik Beasley over 15.5 Points @ 1.82 with Sportsbet – 1 unit

Spurs vs Jazz 11:10am AEST

Give me all the Keldon shares. They absolutely love him in SA and for good reason. He’s coming off his best game of the season against the defending champion Lakers where he went off with 26/10. His shot chart is a thing of beauty with almost everything either around the rim or from 3. The Spurs have had a pretty tough schedule to start the season coming up against Toronto, Pelicans, Lakers x2 from their 5 games – all teams I expect will finish in the top 10 in defence this season. Then looking into those matchups he’s personally had to deal with Siakam, Zion, AD/Lebron. Jazz are a good defensive team, but he gets a better personal matchup and this line is low considering he’s covered it 4/5 games this season with the tough matchups. If you want to take alts, the upside is probably with his 3’s.

• Keldon Johnson over 20.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.88 with Topsport – 1 unit

Mavs vs Bulls 12:10pm AEST

Very keen here. Bulls are once again missing both of their back-up PGs and if we go back 2 games against the Wizards, Lavine had a nice game with 22/6/7 in 34:53. He was in little bit of foul trouble which led to Coby leading the team in minutes at 40, but we’ve seen a willingness to play Lavine big minutes as he had 38 the game prior. I was originally going to take Coby dimes (which am also having a little on) but from that game it looks like Coby got a little lucky with 10 dimes from 12 potentials whereas Lavine had just 7 from his 16 potentials (playing 6 less minutes). Getting a better price on Lavine, and the minutes should even out. Feel much better with Doncic doubtful.

• Zach Lavine over 4.5 Assists @ 1.96 with Sportsbet – 1.1 units
• Zach Lavine over 5.5 Assists @ 3.00 with TAB – 0.4 units
• Zach Lavine over 7.5 Assists @ 8.00 with TAB – 0.1 units
• Coby White over 7.5 Assists @ 6.20 with TAB – 0.2 units
• Coby White over 9.5 Assists @ 17.00 with TAB – 0.1 units

Been on OK start to the season for him averaging 15.2 points per game, but his minutes have been down due to the blowouts they’ve been involved with. That 15.2 comes up to 19.0 per 36 and it was great to see his minute upside with a team high 38:33 in their latest matchup against the Heat. It is a high line, but he gets the gun matchup against the Bulls and has a pretty crazy 9.1% usage bump without Luka on the floor, the next highest bump is Kleber at 4.9%. It has only been 37 minutes, but in that time he put up 27/5/3. He’s going to be busy as the number one option. You can probably wait until Luka is confirmed out as the prices are already baked in, but the downgrade to doubtful makes it seem extremely unlikely he’ll be playing here.

• Tim Hardaway Jr over 20.5 Points @ 1.87 with TAB – 1 unit

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Staking Plan – 5.9 units out.

• Jamal Murray over 22.5 Points @ 1.87 with TAB – 1 unit
• Malik Beasley over 15.5 Points @ 1.82 with Sportsbet – 1 unit
• Keldon Johnson over 20.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.88 with Topsport – 1 unit
• Zach Lavine over 4.5 Assists @ 1.96 with Sportsbet – 1.1 units
• Zach Lavine over 5.5 Assists @ 3.00 with TAB – 0.4 units
• Zach Lavine over 7.5 Assists @ 8.00 with TAB – 0.1 units
• Coby White over 7.5 Assists @ 6.20 with TAB – 0.2 units
• Coby White over 9.5 Assists @ 17.00 with TAB – 0.1 units
• Tim Hardaway Jr over 20.5 Points @ 1.87 with TAB – 1 unit
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