Our Professional NBA Tips, Analysis & Staking Plan 31/1

Season Results:

• 108 Wins / 159 Losses
• 88.40 Units Profit
• +57.54% ROI
• View Results Spreadsheets

Bulls vs Blazers 12:10pm AEST

I don’t think Dame could find himself in a better spot all season. He hasn’t seen a massive tick up in production or usage this season without CJ, but he is ticking along very nicely with 30+ in 4 of his last 5 (35+ in 3 of them) and gets the dream matchup today. He is 3rd in the league at 12.4 possessions completed as the PNR handler per game and 3rd in PPP in those (only including anyone who has 5.0+ per game, Kawhi 1st, Harden 2nd) at 1.15. The Bulls have got a few guys back which may help them a little bit if they want to try something new but to this point they have been getting absolutely roasted by PNR handlers at a league high 25.7 PPG and a league high 1.05 PPP (Dallas 2nd 1.00). They are also allowing a league high 56.0 eFG%. Dame averaged 44.3 points in the 4 games CJ missed last season and they are coming off back to back losses and 3 of their last 4 so am looking for him to be extra aggressive here in the perfect matchup.

• Damian Lillard over 32.5 Points @ 1.88 with Topsport – 1.3 units
• Damian Lillard over 39.5 Points @ 4.20 with B365 – 0.2 units
• Damian Lillard over 49.5 Points @ 19.00 with TAB – 0.1 units

Huge spot for Lauri today. We bet up on him a few games back against the Hornets and he came through for us (just). He’s since had a pair of very rough matchups against the Celtics and Lakers which has kept his line down but am ready to dive back in here. He is a massive winner of WCJ getting hurt, as the Bulls have gone to the Lauri/Young front-court in which time Lauri has put up 25.2 Pts per 36. He’s also receiving a little bit of time as a straight 5 with no Gafford/Young/WCJ where he has been super smash receiving a 10.1% usage bump up to 32.8% and scoring 32.3 Pts per 36. He gets a nice matchup where he can play centre against the second unit here vs Giles or maybe Stotts goes with the Melo/Covington front-court which works too. Either way there will be ample opportunity for Donovan to use Lauri as the 5 in this one where he has been awesome. Portland have been roasted by centres allowing the 5th most points. He’s covered this in 4 of his last 5 (12 v Lakers) and has shown some upside with games of 29 and 23 in that span.

• Lauri Markkanen over 17.5 Points @ 1.94 with Topsport – 1.2 units
• Lauri Markkanen over 19.5 Points @ 2.60 with B365 – 0.4 units
• Lauri Markkanen over 24.5 Points @ 5.75 with B365 – 0.2 units

Spurs vs Grizzlies 12:40pm AEST

Bit of a shame to see Ja be so passive in his return after the blistering start to the season averaging 36 in his first 2 games. He posted a 37.2% usage rate in the opener, followed up by 32.1% against the Hawks but in his 2 games back has topped out 25.0% vs Phoenix. Both Philly and Phoenix are top 9 in defending the PG position, which could explain a little bit of it as well as just working his way back from injury. Either way, he gets an awesome matchup in this one against the Spurs who allow the 5th most points to PGs. Grizz haven’t played for 2 weeks so this comes with a little bit of risk, but we can safely assume that Ja is fully healthy and ready to go and will be licking his lips after lighting the Spurs up for 44/9 in the season opener. Dejounte is a good on ball defender but they struggle to contain the PNR handler (especially when LA is in the action) allowing the 8th most PPG. Ja thrives in the PNR with the 4th highest frequency in the league making up 52.8% of his possessions. They catch Spurs on a b2b and I expect this game to be close, which sets up for Ja to take over in the 4th.

• Ja Morant over 28.5 Points + Assists @ 1.89 with Sportsbet – 1 unit
• Ja Morant over 29.5 Points @ 7.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units
• Ja Morant over 34.5 Points @ 23.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units

Suns vs Mavs 1:10pm AEST

Big beneficiary of Bookers absence as he’s moved back into the starting lineup and has turned in 3 straight really nice games averaging 25.66 PR covering this comfortably in all of them with 24 being his lowest tally. He’s had a big usage bump up to the second highest on the starters at 20.4% (CP 28.6%) up from 16.2% for the season, and his minutes are as safe as ever. Awesome matchup here against this Mavs team who has just been decimated in both games against the Jazz and have now lost 4 on the trot. Their defence has plummeted to 23rd in the league as well as a league worst rating of 121.2 over the last 2 weeks. He should get his looks and coming off a nice win this team should come out with some confidence. Only took 5 3’s last game, but took 11,13 in the 2 prior and Dallas allow the 8th most non corner 3’s which is where Crowder does most of his work taking 36% of all shots in that range. At such high volume you have to have something on his alts incase he heats up. Mikal is coming off a 20 point game which may get him going but has been really inconsistent over the last few weeks. He’s so talented and this sets up great for him too, so having a little bit on. Has had 2 20 point games in his last 4.

• Jae Crowder over 17.5 Points + Rebounds @ 1.83 with B365 – 1.3 units
• Jae Crowder over 4.5 3 Pointers @ 5.70 with TAB – 0.1 units
• Jae Crowder over 5.5 3 Pointers @ 10.00 with TAB – 0.1 units
• Mikal Bridges over 19.5 Points @ 5.50 with TAB – 0.3 units

Staking Plan – 6.4 units out

• Damian Lillard over 32.5 Points @ 1.88 with Topsport – 1.3 units
• Damian Lillard over 39.5 Points @ 4.20 with B365 – 0.2 units
• Damian Lillard over 49.5 Points @ 19.00 with TAB – 0.1 units
• Lauri Markkanen over 17.5 Points @ 1.94 with Topsport – 1.2 units
• Lauri Markkanen over 19.5 Points @ 2.60 with B365 – 0.4 units
• Lauri Markkanen over 24.5 Points @ 5.75 with B365 – 0.2 units
• Ja Morant over 28.5 Points + Assists @ 1.89 with Sportsbet – 1 unit
• Ja Morant over 29.5 Points @ 7.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units
• Ja Morant over 34.5 Points @ 23.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units
• Jae Crowder over 17.5 Points + Rebounds @ 1.83 with B365 – 1.3 units
• Jae Crowder over 4.5 3 Pointers @ 5.70 with TAB – 0.1 units
• Jae Crowder over 5.5 3 Pointers @ 10.00 with TAB – 0.1 units
• Mikal Bridges over 19.5 Points @ 5.50 with TAB – 0.3 units
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