Our Professional NBA Tips, Analysis & Staking Plan 30/4

Results:

• 89.16 Units Profit
• 16.75% ROI

• View Results Spreadsheets

Pacers vs Nets 9:10am AEST

He’s been good to us over the last week and there’s no reason to think he won’t bounce back here against the Nets. The Pacers are bad right now, really bad but the Nets are without 2 of their big 3 so they should be able to hang around. He’s going to need to play big minutes, and he’s coming off to sub 30 minute games with a day off tomorrow. We are up to a 200 minute sample now for him without Turner and Sabonis and the numbers are great, with a 24.8/8.5/6.3 per 36 line (still sub 40% shooting which can come up). Minutes upside was flashed against OKC where he played 39, if he gets between 36-39 he really should be covering this against the bad Nets defence.

• Malcolm Brogdon over 35.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.83 with B365 – 1.2 units

Mavs vs Pistons 9:10am AEST

He’s a little too inconsistent to bet big on but without Luka he gets a 4.9% usage bump putting up 22.7 points per 36. He can get as hot as anyone and it’s a good matchup today against the Pistons B team.

• Tim Hardaway Jr over 24.5 Points @ 6.50 with Sportsbet – 0.2 units

Thunder vs Pelicans 11:10am AEST

“Looove the spot for Dort here. He’s been resting sporadically and now joins the rest of the team who are on the second night of a b2b, so you have to think he’s going to be a touch more aggressive coming in fresh. He is going to have a date with Marcus Smart which scares me a little bit but the way the Celtics have been switching so much lately it shouldn’t be hard to get someone else onto him with a screen or two. Over his last 132 minutes playing alongside Bazley, Dort has put up a stupid 28/6/3 per 36 line. He’s had 8 straight games over a 21.8% usage (4 of them 25%+), and has covered this fairly comfortably in his last 4 active games with PRA totals of 52,34,35,27. Numbers are up across the board over his last 4: Drives 16.5 (up from 9.3), 3.6 minutes of touch time (up from 2.0), 33.8 front-court touches (up from 24.5), 56.3 touches (up from 38.7), 6.8 potentials (up from 3.2). Role is awesome and with Celtics missing both Kemba and Tatum, OKC should be able to hang here.”

Missed a FT to cash the 25+ last game but did enough to cover and get OKC the win. Don’t think his role has been fully priced in yet. He’s the #1 option and even after a 23.7% usage game, they said the needed to get him the ball more. Which is true, as he spent way too many possessions standing in the corner. Should be busy again here against the bad Pelicans D who will be missing some interior presence without Adams.

• Lu Dort over 24.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.83 with B365 – 1 unit
• Lu Dort over 24.5 Points @ 4.20 with Sportsbet – 0.2 units

Yikes. I did not think he had a minute floor as low as 22, but he does and that is just awesome for a bet here. His numbers take a big hit when he’s playing next to Dort and Bazley putting up just 10.5/4.1/4.5 per 36. I don’t think we can expect as little as 22 minutes, but it’s nice to know that floor is there as Ty Jerome has been playing well. He’s definitely earned himself some extra playing time so we can probably assume about a 28/20 split. He is terribly inefficient and needs volume to produce, so without minutes and with less usage playing next to Dort and Bazley, it’s hard to see him covering this one.

• Theo Maledon UNDER 19.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.80 with B365 – 1.2 units

Staking Plan – 3.8 units out

• Malcolm Brogdon over 35.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.83 with B365 – 1.2 units
• Tim Hardaway Jr over 24.5 Points @ 6.50 with Sportsbet – 0.2 units
• Lu Dort over 24.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.83 with B365 – 1 unit
• Lu Dort over 24.5 Points @ 4.20 with Sportsbet – 0.2 units
• Theo Maledon UNDER 19.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.80 with B365 – 1.2 units
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