Our Professional NBA Tips, Analysis & Staking Plan 30/1
January 30, 2021
Season Results:
- 108 Wins / 159 Losses
- 88.40 Units Profit
- +57.54% ROI
- View Results Spreadsheets
Hornets vs Pacers 11:10am
The Hornets used Zeller on Sabonis for most of the matchup when they met two days ago and for the most part he did a really good job. According to matchup data, he spent 22 partial possessions on him and held him to just 2 points on 1 FGA (he also had 5 dimes and 3 turnovers) so I think it’s fair to assume we’ll see a lot of the same today. Zeller only played 18 minutes in their season opener where he got hurt in the 3rd quarter, so it looked like he would’ve been in the high 20s. Since coming back, he’s played 10,14,18 then a huge jump up with 29 minutes with the starters last time out. He’s always been quite productive, and this season is at 0.87 PRA per minute so if he’s in line for 30 minutes again (which I believe he is, maybe even some more upside) should be clearing this again. Covered comfortably with 10/14/4 last game against them. I think Biyombo could be out of the rotation today.
- Cody Zeller over 19.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.87 with TAB – 1.4 units
Doug Mcdermott exploded last game with a 28/5/0 line on 22! shot attempts. It is definitely an outlier as his previous high for the season was 16 but I am more than happy to come back to him here after Bjorkgren was full of praise for him. He is so active out on the court and Nate was delighted when talking about his off ball cutting ability which is perfect playing next to someone like Sabonis who is demands so much attention and is always willing to give up the ball (10 dimes last game). Borrego said they may double team Sabonis some more which could open up even more lanes for McDermott. Didn’t get going the game prior against Raptors, but before that he had cleared this line in in 5 straight averaging 16.2/4.4/2.8 playing 30+ minutes in 4 of them. He has had 25+ in 3 of his last 6. Did most of his damage inside the arc last game (1-5 from 3), but the Hornets do allow the most wide open 3 pointers in the league and he’s more than capable of getting hot quickly. TAB looks to have taken down their alt PRA lines but if you can get on them the 25+ looks nice. Maybe 1.4/0.2 split.
- Doug McDermott over 17.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.88 with Topsport – 1.6 units
Wizards vs Hawks 11:10am
He’s rolling right now and am happy to ride him in what really is a a great matchup for him. He’s been at 27.8 drives per game over his last 4 which has led to him covering this line in all of them and today gets as good a matchup as any against the 27th ranked defence (27th last 2 weeks also, but almost 3 pts per 100 possessions worse). They give up the 3rd most points to the PNR ball handler which is where Trae does a lot of his damage scoring 14.2 points per game as the PNR handler, which is 2nd in the league (Luka 14.3). They may put Bonga on him who’s a good defender but Trae is rolling right now and if his outside shot keeps falling he should be covering this comfortably.
- Trae Young over 28.5 Points @ 1.95 with TAB – 1 unit
Knicks vs Cavs 11:40am
It’s always interesting hearing what some coaches have to say about training, and Bickerstaff mentioned a few times that one of the main things they were working on were Sexton lob passes. He has the ball in his hands so much (6.1 mins per game) and drives 16.8 times per game (7th in league) so it makes a ton of sense for them to be working on that especially playing with a lob threat such as Allen. He has turned into such a good scorer he demands a little extra attention which should open up some opportunities for him. Not including the 16 minute game against Celtics (had 2 dimes), he’s covered this comfortably in all 4 since returning from injury, with a minimum of 5 and averaging 6.25 (had a 9 dime game). Not the best matchup but line is too low to pass up on. Should see him back in the high 30s minutes.
- Colin Sexton over 3.5 Assists @ 1.87 with TAB – 1.3 units
- Colin Sexton over 5.5 Assists @ 4.60 with TAB – 0.2 units
- Colin Sexton over 7.5 Assists @ 15.00 with TAB – 0.1 units
Nets vs OKC 12:10pm
Think we could be in for a big Kyrie night here. KD has been the top dog in usage since the big 3 got together sitting comfortably ahead at 28.3% (Kyrie 2nd 23.4%) so with him out today I’d expect a lot of that usage to fall to Kyrie. We can pretty safely assume that Harden is going to have Dort on him considering how well he has defended him in the past, so that should open up even more opportunities for Kyrie. It’s only a 41 minute sample, but since the trade Kyrie gets a ridiculous 12.6% usage bump with KD off the floor all the way up to 41.5% which has resulted in a per 36 output of 44.8/1.8/4.4. It’s only a 12 minute sample but Harden and Kyrie will almost certainly be staggered here and in that 12 minutes without Harden or KD Kyrie has a stupid 53.5% usage. Nets awful D means they haven’t been able to put teams away and this OKC team is scrappy so they should be able to hang around here.
- Kyrie Irving over 27.5 Points @ 1.80 with Sportsbet – 1.2 units
Shai has been hard to target this season as I continually underestimate OKC and their ability to hand around in games but this spot is so awesome for him. He’s second in the league in drives at 24.2 per game (Luka 24.8 big drop to 3rd, Ja 20.6) and the Nets allow over 50 drives per game which includes a season high 70 when they last met. He’s in smash mode right now with an unbelievable 27.6 drives per game over his last 7. He is so good and always makes the right play, so this sets up nicely for both him and OKC. He had 31 points against them earlier in the season.
- Shai over 28.5 Points + Assists @ 1.84 with Sportsbet – 1.2 units
- Shai over 29.5 Points @ 6.25 with B365 – 0.2 units
- Shai over 29.5 Points / OKC Win @ 15.00 with B365 – 0.1 units
Could be a fun game to target with a little bet builder on B365.
- Kyrie over 28.5 Points / Shai over 28.5 Points + Assists / Horford over 22.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists / Harden over 10.5 Assists @ 10.00 – 0.2 units
Nuggets vs Spurs 12:40pm
He’s a little hard to trust but I quite like this spot for him today. Pop mentioned several times how he wants him to be aggressive and if he is today then he should be able to fly right by Millsap consistently to get himself to the rim where the Nuggets rank dead last in opponent field goal percentage at 69.9%. Might see some more MPJ at the 4 today and Keldon should be able to have his way with him too.
- Keldon Johnson over 24.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 2.90 with TAB – 0.5 units
- Keldon Johnson over 29.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 6.50 with TAB – 0.2 units
- Keldon Johnson over 34.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 17.00 with TAB – 0.1 units
Jazz vs Mavs 2:10pm
Absolutely spewing I missed this last game as I had a really strong look at it but there was something that turned me off. Anyways, the role without Mitchell is even better than I imagined it would be with a whopping 5.3 minutes of touch time which smashes his season average of 2.3. He had 8 dimes but was a little unlucky with as he had a huge 17 potentials in his 30.3 minutes (sat the final 1:34 in the blowout). Hit shot was falling then so he was more aggressive than usual, so if he doesn’t have the shot going early there could be even more potentials. This play gets even stronger if the Mavs go with KP at the 5 as the Jazz will just torch them in the PNR once again (I will likely have a play on Gobert later on but waiting on line-ups). Getting a great price at the line here.
- Joe Ingles over 5.5 Assists @ 2.20 with Sportsbet – 1.3 units
- Joe Ingles over 6.5 Assists @ 3.10 with Sportsbet – 0.3 units
- Joe Ingles over 7.5 Assists @ 4.80 with TAB – 0.2 units
- Joe Ingles over 9.5 Assists @ 13.00 with TAB – 0.1 units
- Joe Ingles over 11.5 Assists @ 46.00Â with Sportsbet – 0.1 units
Favors out which is great news for Rudy. His minutes have been kept in check this season with just 3 games over 34 minutes, but Quinn clearly is happy to extend him sans Favors as he played 37 last game. KP starting is also great news for Rudy, as Quinn said after the game they are strictly going to run PNR as long as KP is at the 5 which absolutely torched the Mavs last game as he went off for 29/20. Mavs have one of the worst PNR roll man defences in the league allowing 1.18 PPP, and a league worst 10.5 PPG.
- Rudy Gobert over 31.5 Points + Rebounds @ 1.80 with B365 – 1.5 units ((1.95 with sportsbet))
Staking Plan – 12.7 units out
- Cody Zeller over 19.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.87 with TAB – 1.4 units
- Doug McDermott over 17.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.88 with Topsport – 1.6 units
- Trae Young over 28.5 Points @ 1.95 with TAB – 1 unit
- Colin Sexton over 3.5 Assists @ 1.87 with TAB – 1.3 units
- Colin Sexton over 5.5 Assists @ 4.60 with TAB – 0.2 units
- Colin Sexton over 7.5 Assists @ 15.00 with TAB – 0.1 units
- Kyrie Irving over 27.5 Points @ 1.80 with Sportsbet – 1.2 units
- Shai over 28.5 Points + Assists @ 1.84 with Sportsbet – 1.2 units
- Shai over 29.5 Points @ 6.25 with B365 – 0.2 units
- Shai over 29.5 Points / OKC Win @ 15.00 with B365 – 0.1 units
- Kyrie over 28.5 Points / Shai over 28.5 Points + Assists / Horford over 22.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists / Harden over 10.5 Assists @ 10.00 – 0.2 units
- Keldon Johnson over 24.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 2.90 with TAB – 0.5 units
- Keldon Johnson over 29.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 6.50 with TAB – 0.2 units
- Keldon Johnson over 34.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 17.00 with TAB – 0.1 units
- Joe Ingles over 5.5 Assists @ 2.20 with Sportsbet – 1.3 units
- Joe Ingles over 6.5 Assists @ 3.10 with Sportsbet – 0.3 units
- Joe Ingles over 7.5 Assists @ 4.80 with TAB – 0.2 units
- Joe Ingles over 9.5 Assists @ 13.00 with TAB – 0.1 units
- Joe Ingles over 11.5 Assists @ 46.00Â with Sportsbet – 0.1 units
- Rudy Gobert over 31.5 Points + Rebounds @ 1.80 with B365 – 1.5 units
- Click Here To Get Top Odds With TopSport
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