Our Professional NBA Tips, Analysis & Staking Plan 3/9

Jan 27, 2020; Miami, Florida, USA; Miami Heat forward Bam Adebayo (13) dribbles the ball up the court against the Orlando Magic during the second half at American Airlines Arena. Mandatory Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports

Season Results:

• 343 Wins / 223 Losses
• +110.07 Units Of Profit
• 18.58% ROI

Bucks vs Heat 8:30am AEST

Only had the 12 points but was crucial to Miami’s success in G1 playing outstanding defence and finishing with 17 boards & 6 dimes. I really expected Spo to unleash him for the playoffs but he kept his minutes in check in round 1, so it was great to see him with a playoff high 37:47 in the opener. He’s cleared this line in 4/5 of the playoff games and is now averaging 18 boards and 6 dimes over his last two. Only had the 11 potentials for his 6 dimes, but they are playing through him a ton with 48 front-court touches and after a quiet game 1, expect Duncan to get some more looks here. He had 96 shots assisted by Bam in the regular season, and 6 in round 1 (0 in G1).

• Bam over 15.5 Rebounds + Assists @ 1.77 with Beteasy – 1 unit

I was surprised Heat went with Crowder to guard Giannis, as I thought Bam would be the man. I spent this morning re-watching G1 to see why Giannis only got up 12 attempts, and while doing that noticed how much they were using Bam as a help defender on him. Lopez already had a good matchup here with a clear size advantage over Bam but got some really great looks due to Bam over-helping so he could he should get some good looks again. I also wouldn’t be surprised if they went to him in the post a bit more in some half court sets where they struggled to generate quality offence in G1.

• Lopez over 14.5 Points @ 1.88 with Beteasy – 1 unit

I definitely don’t think Miami winning game 1 was a fluke as they matchup so well here. Bucks had a great game from Middleton and also shot 45.7% from 3 and still weren’t able to get the win. Getting a nice enough line here. For Miami to win I imagine they are going to have to score 110+ which means a couple of guys will have to have big scoring games. I don’t think we can expect that to come from Bam who has a tough matchup in the paint so looking elsewhere.

• Heat +5.5 @ 1.92 with Topsport – 0.5 units
• Dragic 25+ Points / Miami win @ 9.00 – 0.1 units
• Jimmy 30+ Points / Miami win @ 9.75 – 0.1 units
• Bam 7+ Assists / Miami win @ 7.00 – 0.1 units

Staking Plan

• Bam over 15.5 Rebounds + Assists @ 1.77 with Beteasy – 1 unit
• Lopez over 14.5 Points @ 1.88 with Beteasy – 1 unit
• Heat +5.5 @ 1.92 with Topsport – 0.5 units
• Dragic 25+ Points / Miami win @ 9.00 – 0.1 units
• Jimmy 30+ Points / Miami win @ 9.75 – 0.1 units
• Bam 7+ Assists / Miami win @ 7.00 – 0.1 units
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