Our Professional NBA Tips, Analysis & Staking Plan 4/3

Season Results:

• 203 Wins / 422 Losses
• 91.07 Units Profit
• +27.09% ROI
• View Results Spreadsheets

Cavs vs Pacers 11:10am AEST

Cavs have played much better of late and a large part of it is Sexton getting back to his early season form. They have the 22nd ranked offence over the last 2 weeks (still bad, but better than the 30th ranked for the season) and have the 14th ranked point differential in that span with a 4-2 record. His usage has come way back up with a 30+ usage in 3 of his last 5 games (2 games with 35+) resulting in him covering this line 4/5 games (23 other). His minutes have been way up as well, playing 40+ in 3 of the games (one OT, but played 39 in regulation). Garland is a little banged up and they always have one of the two on the court, resulting in one of them playing close to 40 each night so expect that to be Sexton here. It’s an interesting matchup, as the Pacers just try to funnel guys into the paint where Turner is waiting (they allow the most shots in the league at the rim, but have the second best opponent FG% at rim) so he shouldn’t have any trouble getting inside and he has a solid mid range game taking 45% of his shots there (87th percentile). Indiana allow the 5th highest FG% to opposing PGs. He had 28 in their previous matchup in Indiana who have been playing surprisingly fast of late with the 11th ranked pace over their last 10.

• Colin Sexton over 24.5 Points @ 1.82 with Topsport – 1 unit

Raptors vs Pistons 11:10am AEST

So much value to be had from on the short-handed Raptors here. Keen to target Lowry who gets a huge usage bump without FVV, Siakam & Anunoby up 7.7% to 29.9%. Has a nice per 36 line of 21.4/3.8/9.7 which would cover this line, but is only shooting 36.8% from the field in that span so there is some extra upside for him. Working with a smaller sample here of just 50 minutes, but if add Powell to the other guys off the court, lowry’s usage jumps up to 32.5% with a 24/4.9/10.6 per 36 line. With Powell and Lowry the two main guys today, I’d expect their minutes to be staggered so we should get some powerplay minutes for Lowry. Very reasonable line here for Lowry who has covered this in both his games since coming back and gets and a fine matchup here against the Pistons who are about average against PGs. Lowry and FVV share the ball handling duties with Freddy leading the team in touch time at 5.9 and Lowry second at 4.9 but it’ll likely be Lowry handling on every possession here which just creates a stack of upside across the board.

• Kyle Lowry over 29.5 Points + Assists @ 1.83 with B365 – 1.3 units
• Kyle Lowry over 11.5 Assists @ 5.50 with TAB – 0.3 units
• Kyle Lowry over 13.5 Assists @ 13.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units
• Kyle Lowry over 29.5 Points @ 6.50 with TAB – 0.2 units
• Kyle Lowry Triple Double @ 10.50 with B365 – 0.1 units

I think it’ll be Davis who starts at SG here, but Bembry should still be set for a 30 minute role as the first guy off the bench as Sergio said he’ll have the back-up PG duties. He has a ton of positional flexibility and he’s a good defender, so there are several paths to minutes for him. We have an 81 minute sample of him without the Raps guys who are out today and he’s been really good with an awesome 14.2/7.5/4.9 per 36 line. I don’t quite trust his offence, so taking the RA as the base bet as we’re getting a huge edge even if he can get to around the 30 minute mark. Getting a little exposure to his upside as there’s so many unknowns in this one with the plethora of guys out.

• DeAndre Bembry over 6.5 Rebounds + Assists @ 1.74 with B365 – 1 unit
• DeAndre Bembry over 5.5 Assists @ 6.00 with TAB – 0.1 units
• DeAndre Bembry over 24.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 8.00 with TAB – 0.1 units

Wolves vs Hornets 12:10pm AEST

“With Beasley out, they Wolves really don’t have many quality players to fill his 33.5 minutes. One way to do so would be to have Rubio and McLaughlin on the court together but Finch hasn’t shown a willingness to do that so the minutes have to come from somewhere else. Culver coming back into the mix helps, but he played just 14 minutes last night and it’s hard to see that be too much higher on the b2b especially as he isn’t very good. Vanderbilt has been awesome the last couple games and should really be headed for a more consistent role moving forward. He is so so active when he’s out there on both ends of the floor, always cutting when Towns or Rubio has the ball and is a really strong rebounder. This line is right on his season average but he’s only averaging 19.3 minutes, and I think he’ll see somewhere in the mid 20s here with 30+ upside. They were admittedly easier matchups against the Bulls and Wizards, but he well and truly covered this line in both with 22 and 23 PR respectively.”

Got burned by him last game in what turned out to be a pretty rough matchup for him. Wolves were playing from behind from the get-go so needed more offence which Vanderbilt doesn’t bring but I’m happy to come back to him in what sets up as a far better matchup. Finch said he is banking on defence to start games and that he likes the Vanderbilt-KAT combo, it’s just hard as he needs more shooting around those two. Hornets have been flying over their last 5 games playing at the leagues 3rd fastest pace which is great for Vanderbilt as he should get a few easier looks in transition. If Wolves can get off to a good start and play from in front then it opens up heaps more minutes for him.

• Jared Vanderbilt over 13.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.88 with Topsport – 1 unit
• Jared Vanderbilt over 19.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 4.25 with TAB – 0.2 units
• Jared Vanderbilt over 24.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 11.00 with TAB – 0.1 units

Ugh. Get KAT the fucking ball… Anthony Edwards is by far the most destructive player in the NBA and he has taken more shots than KAT in 3 straight games?? I don’t think I’ve ever been more frustrated watching basketball than watching Edwards. He has shot 35, 41, 36% in those 3 games btw. Anyways, the role for Edwards is awesome and if he’s going to be taking 20+ shots every night which Finch seems to have no issues with then he’s going to put up stats. Doesn’t really get a much better chance than in a game like today where he there should be plenty of transition chances for him to show off his athleticism. Anybody taking 20+ shots in a game has a decent crack at scoring 30, something he is yet to do so maybe today is the day.

• Anthony Edwards over 28.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.97 with Topsport – 1 unit
• Anthony Edwards over 29.5 Points @ 8.50 with TAB – 0.1 units

Bit of a saver on KAT who surely just has to explode in one of these games soon and it’s a good matchup. Getting a nice price here as he’s obviously more than capable of covering this and should be set for big minutes in a game they can definitely stat competitive in.

• Karl Anthony Towns over 49.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 4.25 with TAB – 0.4 units
• Karl Anthony Towns over 54.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 8.50 with TAB – 0.1 units

Staking Plan – 11.1 units out

• Colin Sexton over 24.5 Points @ 1.82 with Topsport – 1 unit
• Kyle Lowry over 29.5 Points + Assists @ 1.83 with B365 – 1.3 units
• Kyle Lowry over 11.5 Assists @ 5.50 with TAB – 0.3 units
• Kyle Lowry over 13.5 Assists @ 13.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units
• Kyle Lowry over 29.5 Points @ 6.50 with TAB – 0.2 units
• Kyle Lowry Triple Double @ 10.50 with B365 – 0.1 units
• DeAndre Bembry over 6.5 Rebounds + Assists @ 1.74 with B365 – 1 unit
• DeAndre Bembry over 24.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 9.50 with TAB – 0.1 units
• Terrence Davis over 17.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.95 with TAB – 1.2 units
• Terrence Davis over 24.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 6.00 with TAB – 0.3 units
• Jared Vanderbilt over 13.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.88 with Topsport – 1 unit
• Jared Vanderbilt over 19.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 4.25 with TAB – 0.2 units
• Jared Vanderbilt over 24.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 11.00 with TAB – 0.1 units
• Anthony Edwards over 28.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.97 with Topsport – 1 unit
• Anthony Edwards over 29.5 Points @ 8.50 with TAB – 0.1 units
• Karl Anthony Towns over 49.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 4.25 with TAB – 0.4 units
• Karl Anthony Towns over 54.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 8.50 with TAB – 0.1 units
• Draymond Green over 9.5 Assists @ 1.71 with B365 – 1.4 units
• Young/Collins 4+ 3’s @ 1.75 with TAB – 1.2 units
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