Our Professional NBA Tips, Analysis & Staking Plan 3/3

Season Results:

• 203 Wins / 422 Losses
• 91.07 Units Profit
• +27.09% ROI
• View Results Spreadsheets

Wizards vs Grizzlies 11:10am AEST

After going on a streak where he really had his minutes ramped up playing 36+ in 4 straight, he’s been dialled back over the last two playing just 25,26 mins. Wizards are healthy for the most part and they have a ton of options at the 4/5 with Wagner, Lopez, Len, Bertans, Advija and now even Bonga who has come back into the mix. The way Rui was seeing extra minutes was next to Bertans as the 4/5 as they played 57 minutes together in that 4 game stretch (was actually only 3 games, as Bertans missed the 4th against Denver which opened things up for Rui to play his season high 38 minutes). They have however only played 11 minutes next to each other over the last 2 games and I think it’s going to be really hard for them to do so here against JV as the Wiz will likely need a traditional centre out there the majority of the game. Bertans has been scorching hot over his last 2 with 10 triples whereas Rui has gone cold with games of 14 & 9 PRA. He averages 20.3 PRA per game in 30.2 minutes but has stayed under this mark in 11/13 games this season where he has played fewer than 30 minutes. Memphis defence has come around again with the 7th best rating over the last 2 weeks and are sitting at 8th for the season. They give up the fewest rebounds to PFs and are about average in giving up points to the position. Brandon Clarke is a

• Rui Hachimura UNDER 21.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.92 with Topsport – 1 unit

Heat vs Hawks 11:40am AEST

Jimmy is out again here and it was Nunn who made the biggest impact last game filling up the stat sheet with 24/3/7. He did it on fairly high efficiency so it’ll be hard for him to replicate but it sets up nicely for him again. He gets a 2.1% usage bump without Jimmy on the court posting a really strong 19.3/4.4/3.5 per 36 line. Dragic and Herro should both be close to a full go here as they’ve had a chance to work themselves back so there isn’t as much upside but he should get every chance to cover this line in a good matchup. He was really good defensively on Trae so maybe that would be his path to a few more minutes. Had a team high 10 potentials and now has assist totals of 9,7,1(ha),7 over his last 4. He’s a little streaky, but these prices on his 3’s here are wild, as he’s had 3+ in 6 of his last 9 (66%), 4+ in 5 of his last 9 games (55%) and 5+ in 2 of his last 9.

Had his PRA as the base bet but there’s been a steady stream of money for it all the way up to 23.5 so just sticking to the 3s.

• Kendrick Nunn over 1.5 3 Pointers @ 1.67 with Sportsbet – 1 unit
• Kendrick Nunn over 2.5 3 Pointers @ 3.20 with Sportsbet – 0.4 units
• Kendrick Nunn over 3.5 3 Pointers @ 7.50 with Sportsbet – 0.3 units
• Kendrick Nunn over 5.5 Assists @ 5.00 with Sportsbet – 0.2 units
• Kendrick Nunn over 7.5 Assists @ 17.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units

They had 5+ @ 19.00 for a while but it’s since been taken down, definitely worth something if it comes back online.

Nuggets vs Bucks 1:10pm AEST

This is an absolute nightmare of a matchup for the short-handed Nuggets. There aren’t many people in the league that can guard Giannis, but the Nuggets have 2 guys on their roster who can slow him down – unfortunately for them they are both out tomorrow (Millsap /Green). While they’ve been missing guys, most of their depth is in the guard positions so they’ve been running out smaller line-ups with MPJ at the 4. Although there has been a bit of publicity around MPJ’s improved defence (more just effort based, he still gets completely lost and he isn’t very agile) he is absolutely no chance of slowing down Giannis so I’d expect Malone brings Nnaji back into the starting line-up. Although he is a decent defender (70th percentile on post up possessions & 56th percentile on isolation possessions in his lone college season) and he has the sort of physical tools required, it’s a tough guard for any rookie. FWIW, he’s only played 158 minutes this season, and the Nuggets have been 1.8 PP100P worse defensively with him on the court. Giannis is on a tear right now scoring 36+ in 4 straight games (including games against the Clippers and Pels which aren’t ideal for him). It’s no secret the Nuggets defence is bad, but they have the 30th ranked rim percentage in the league allowing a stupid 70.5%. This is where Giannis does most of his damage with 56% of his shots coming at the rim. On the flip side, it’s a tough matchup for Jokic with the Bucks allowing the 3rd lowest FG% to centre’s. Although it should be a better matchup for their perimeter guys like Murray, Jrue should get his minutes bumped up here which will help slow him down. Bucks are at home and Denver have to travel from Chicago on the b2b where all 5 starters played 33+ minutes including Murray up at 35 and Jokic 38. Was tossing up which bet to take so just splitting between the two.

• Giannis Antetokoumpo over 29.5 Points / Bucks win @ 2.10 with Sportsbet – 1.5 units
• Bucks -6.5 @ 1.90 with Sportsbet – 0.5 units

Staking Plan – 6.3 units out

• Rui Hachimura UNDER 21.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.92 with Topsport – 1 unit
• Kendrick Nunn over 1.5 3 Pointers @ 1.67 with Sportsbet – 1 unit
• Kendrick Nunn over 2.5 3 Pointers @ 3.20 with Sportsbet – 0.4 units
• Kendrick Nunn over 3.5 3 Pointers @ 7.50 with Sportsbet – 0.3 units
• Kendrick Nunn over 5.5 Assists @ 5.00 with Sportsbet – 0.2 units
• Kendrick Nunn over 7.5 Assists @ 17.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units
• Giannis Antetokoumpo over 29.5 Points / Bucks win @ 2.10 with Sportsbet – 1.5 units
• Bucks -6.5 @ 1.90 with Sportsbet – 0.5 units
• Immanuel Quickley over 19.5 Points + Assists @ 1.83 with B365 – 1.3 units
• Click Here To Get Top Odds With TopSport