Our Professional NBA Tips, Analysis & Staking Plan 3/2

Season Results:

• 125 Wins / 194 Losses
• 88.65 Units Profit
• +48.11% ROI
• View Results Spreadsheets

Magic vs Raptors 11:10am AEST

Some crazy prices have gone up here.

EDIT: Well, prices are gone so not crazy anymore – I’ve left the prices I originally typed if anybody is interested. Not much value in the alts anymore, especially Cole so just taking the base lines heavy.

EDIT EDIT: Base line’s are gone now too. Bluh. Gone from 4 units out to 0.3 :’). Would advise checking B365 when they put odds up around 9pm tonight. If you can get anything above 1.75 for Fournier 4+ or Cole 5+ smash it.

Since Fultz went down, we have a 13 game sample and in that time we have managed to cash in on AG’s assists so obviously we are all aware of his role. As a reminder, in that span AG was second on the team in touch time at 5.6 minutes per game so that all has to go somewhere. Vooch isn’t a candidate as he’s a far better catch and shoot guy so it will likele be Jordan Bone coming back into the rotation but he really isn’t any good and he’s not very ball dominant (was playing a ton off ball with AG running point) so I’d imagine AGs touch time gets split up between Cole and Fournier. Not too likely, but we may see Fournier used as the backup point. I can’t work out the prices here as Cole has had 6 dimes in 3 straight including the last matchup against the Raps where he had 12 potentials. He leads the team in touch time since Fultz injury at 6.4 minutes and it wouldn’t surprise to see that be somewhere closer to 8 here. Fournier has been third on the team in touch time at 3.0 minutes per game since returning from injury, which will certainly get a bump maybe closer to 5.0. He’s averaging 5.2 assists over his last 6 games with 10.2 potentials in that span. I would go straight to the alts with both of these, but blowout is a bit of a risk. With no Gordon or Fultz this season, Cole is averaging 5.6 dimes per 36 and Fournier is averaging a massive 7.5 in a fairly large 110 minute sample. I’ll probably have a little bit on Raptors 15+ or something around there to try cover a bit of the blowout risk as well, but those lines aren’t up yet.

• Cole Anthony over 4.5 Assists @ 2.18 with Topsport
• Cole Anthony over 5.5 Assists @ 3.30 with Sportsbet
• Cole Anthony over 7.5 Assists @ 9.00 with Sportsbet
• Cole Anthony over 9.5 Assists @ 31.00 with Sportsbet
• Evan Fournier over 3.5 Assists @ 1.83 with Topsport
• Evan Fournier over 5.5 Assists @ 4.33 with Sportsbet
• Evan Fournier over 7.5 Assists @ 14.00 with Sportsbet
• Evan Fournier over 9.5 Assists @ 61.00 with Sportsbet

Edited staking plan:

• Evan Fournier over 7.5 Assists @ 9.00 with TAB – 0.3 units

Hard to go higher than a full unit here as Powell is coming back in which gives Nurse another capable player to fill in some minutes which could mean we see Siakam shift to the 5 for little stretches. Either way, this Raptors centre rotation has gotten a little messy of late and it seems to be quite matchup related. Baynes played a season high 29 minutes last game against the Magic and did a really good job on Vooch holding him to 2-7 for 5 points in 27.1 partial possessions. I think we’ll see some extended run from Baynes here again to back up the season high 29 minutes. The 29 minutes wasn’t a complete shock as he had played 22,23 the 2 games prior. Averaging 13 boards over his last 2, including the 16 rebound game against the same opposition 2 back.

• Aaron Baynes over 7.5 Rebounds @ 2.25 with TAB – 0.4 units
• Aaron Baynes over 9.5 Rebounds @ 4.60 with TAB – 0.3 units
• Aaron Baynes over 11.5 Rebounds @ 11.00 with TAB – 0.2 units
• Aaron Baynes over 13.5 Rebounds @ 21.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units

I touched above that someone has to fill AGs mins, and it’s obvious that Clifford trusts Birch and has been wanting to find him minutes so badly he’s been using him as a 4 as he’s had 12.1 minutes per game of overlap with Vooch. I’m not sure how it plays out, but we may see him push into the 30s and he’s been fairly productive with an 11.4/10.3/2.1 per 36 line.

• Khem Birch over 24.5 Points + Rebounds + Assist @ 7.50 with TAB – 0.2 units

Clippers vs Nets 11:40am AEST

Going up against the Nets gives us the perfect opportunity to bet on the opposing teams studs. I usually would have a tough time backing Kawhi in good matchups because they are a nightly blowout risk and then have a tough time backing him against good teams as it’s usually a bad matchup. Best of both worlds here as it’s a great matchup and a -1.5 spread. Was having his best stretch of the season before going into COVID protocols with 3 straight 30+ games and seemingly hasn’t skipped a beat since coming back with 24 & 28 in blowout wins. Nice way to ease him back into things as he should be in line for big minutes here. We’ve seen Lou stretch him out to 36+ mins 5 times this season including 3 games at 38. As I’ve mentioned before these high total close spread games are a good time to cook a multi, and we have two today.

• Kawhi Leonard over 28.5 Points @ 1.95 with TAB – 1 unit
• Kawhi over 28.5 Points / PG over 24.5 Points / KD over 26.5 Points / Harden over 9.5 Assists @ 11.75 with Sportsbet – 0.3 units

Wizards vs Blazers 12:10pm AEST

They put up 20.5 on some sites for him yesterday but by the time I had gone to write it up was gone. Wouldn’t often take something I’ve missed so much value on but this spot is too good to ignore. He really hasn’t looked good this season but may have turned a corner as he’s been far far better over his last 2 including the 41 points eruption against the Nets. He’s had a 35.8% usage over his last 2 and has been ultra aggressive with 22.5 drives per game which is up from the 16.5 for the season. It’s encouraging to see that his touch time has remained right on his season average, so it’s clear he’s just being super aggressive which should continue today in an awesome matchup for him. Westy relies heavily on getting into the paint with 44% of his shots coming at the rim (91st percentile) and 20% coming from floater range (88th percentile). Portland rank 20th in opponent FG% at the rim and 21st in opponent FG% from floater range (full season, including Nurkic). The on/off splits for Nurkic are pretty wild, as opponent’s have a -3.00% eFG whilst he’s on the court which is 82nd percentile and opponent’s have a +4.4% eFG while Kanter is on the court which is 9th percentile. Opponents also shoot 2.6% better at the rim with Nurkic off and Kanter on as well as a crazy 10.9% swing from floater range. Another total set over 240 with a tight 2.5 spread.

• Russell Westbrook over 23.5 Points @ 1.83 with B365 – 1 unit
• Westbrook over 23.5 Points / Lillard over 32.5 Points / Beal over 32.5 Points / Lillard over 7.5 Assists @ 9.25 with Sportsbet – 0.3 units

Celtics vs Warriors 2:10pm AEST

It’s a shame about the matchup here which probably limits his upside a touch but this role is too good to pass on as I can’t imagine we will be getting anything close to this line next game if things pan out. Wiseman joins Chriss on the sidelines and all of a sudden the Warriors front-court is extremely thin. I expect Paschall to take a lot of Wiseman’s minutes, as Looney’s asthma doesn’t really allow him to play extended minutes. Paschall has been awesome since moving into that back-up C role, with a 6.1% usage bump up to 29.9% and turning in a crazy 25.5/6.9/2.5 line. If we pencil Looney in for 26 minutes, that leaves 22 minutes at the C spot. If Paschall can take the lion share of them as well as playing some PF next to Draymond or Looney then we could see him work into the upper 20s which all of a sudden makes this line look way too low based on his per minute output. Will likely play garbage time too if that eventuates which is always nice.

• Eric Paschall over 15.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.86 with B365 – 1.3 units
• Eric Paschall over 14.5 Points @ 3.65 with B365 – 0.3 units
• Eric Paschall over 19.5 Points @ 14.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units
• Eric Paschall over 2.5 Assists @ 4.25 with B365 – 0.2 units
• Eric Paschall over 3.5 Assists @ 9.00 with TAB – 0.1 units

Staking Plan – 6.1 units out

• Evan Fournier over 7.5 Assists @ 9.00 with TAB – 0.3 units
• Aaron Baynes over 7.5 Rebounds @ 2.25 with TAB – 0.4 units
• Aaron Baynes over 9.5 Rebounds @ 4.60 with TAB – 0.3 units
• Aaron Baynes over 11.5 Rebounds @ 11.00 with TAB – 0.2 units
• Aaron Baynes over 13.5 Rebounds @ 21.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units
• Khem Birch over 24.5 Points + Rebounds + Assist @ 7.50 with TAB – 0.2 units
• Kawhi Leonard over 28.5 Points @ 1.95 with TAB – 1 unit
• Kawhi over 28.5 Points / PG over 24.5 Points / KD over 26.5 Points / Harden over 9.5 Assists @ 11.75 with Sportsbet – 0.3 units
• Russell Westbrook over 23.5 Points @ 1.83 with B365 – 1 unit
• Westbrook over 23.5 Points / Lillard over 32.5 Points / Beal over 32.5 Points / Lillard over 7.5 Assists @ 9.25 with Sportsbet – 0.3 units
• Eric Paschall over 15.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.86 with B365 – 1.3 units
• Eric Paschall over 14.5 Points @ 3.65 with B365 – 0.3 units
• Eric Paschall over 19.5 Points @ 14.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units
• Eric Paschall over 2.5 Assists @ 4.25 with B365 – 0.2 units
• Eric Paschall over 3.5 Assists @ 9.00 with TAB – 0.1 units
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