Our Professional NBA Tips, Analysis & Staking Plan 3/10

Sat 3 Oct 2020, 12:01am AEST - Sportingbase

Season Results:

389 Wins / 264 Losses
+113.53 Units Of Profit
16.48% ROI

Lakers vs Heat 11:00am AEST

Ugh. Was really looking forward to this series, as I really thought it was going to be a long one. Didn’t see too much in G1 that convinced me we were on the wrong side with Miami. Lakers started the game 13-19 (68.4%) from behind the arc and at that point Dragic was done and so were Miami’s chances. Lakers are a 35% 3 point team so it is extremely hard to draw any meaningful conclusion in a half they shot double their season average on very high volume. Miami, the best 3 point shooting team in the league, were just 4-15 on wide open 3’s as well. Obviously we won’t get a chance to see how the series would have played out as even if we do see Bam and Dragic back they won’t be close to themselves as they are both fairly significant injuries. Bookies have had hours to get lines up for Nunn & Olynyk but nothing at the time of writing unfortunately so just sticking with the one bet here. Nunn was the guy I was keen to target, as he would likely be playing garbage time as

Miami are really going to have to lean on Herro here. He was awful in G1, but he was able to create some good looks for himself with half of his shots coming uncontested. He was just 1-10 on pullup’s and we know he is far better than that. It’s a high number for him today, but he’s going to have so much opportunity and he posted a team high 34.6% usage rate in the second half of G1.

Herro over 22.5 Points + Assists @ 1.80 with B365 – 1 unit

*Keep an eye on what lines they put up for Nunn & Olynyk. Without Bam & Dragic, Nunn posted a 23/3/3 per 36 line in 74 minutes. He should flirt with 30 minutes again today and Spo mentioned they could really use his offensive punch. Olynyk is a very under-rated playmaker and he managed to rack up 4 dimes (8 potentials) in just 18 minutes. Might get some sneaky good odds on his assist lines. Should see minimum 24 here.

*No lines for Iggy yet either, who is probably locked in to close to 30 minutes. His PRA line was 8.5 in G1, it will be up here but he should see more playmaking duties and far more opportunities.