Our Professional NBA Tips, Analysis & Staking Plan 28/9

Season Results:

• 375 Wins / 254 Losses
• +113.10 Units Of Profit
• 17.06% ROI

Heat vs Celtics 9:30am AEST

More than happy to go again here. Managed to cover relatively easily last game and took the fewest shots since Toronto G5, as well as missing a few uncharacteristic easy ones near the rim. Should play somewhere between 36-40 again, as Stevens is having trouble playing Kemba due to his defensive deficiencies. He’s covered this in 6 of his last 7 (18 in other) and with his role I think the only thing that beats him here is a poor shooting night. I don’t mind his PRA line either, but his rebounding has been a bit inconsistent. I know a few of you like to go with alts on a lot of my plays, so if you are doing that with Smart take his PRA as his rebounding offers lots of upside.

• Smart over 17.5 Points + Assists @ 1.76 with B365 – 1.25 units

It was hard not to be impressed with Jaylen last game, as he was super aggressive the whole way through and looked great attacking the rim in the first half when everyone else was struggling. I was tossing up between him and Tatum for the second play (really like Tatum too, probably over 30.5 PA) as it’s hard to take both confidently at the big lines but have ultimately settled on Jaylen. He led the team with a 29.3% usage taking 23 shots and has strung together 4 really nice games now, averaging 24/7.5/2.8 in 40.5 minutes.

• Brown over 29.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.89 with Sportsbet – 1 unit

Celtics really took away Bam getting to the rim as he only managed 2 shots there in G5 but was still somewhat effective almost covering this line in an off game for him with a 13/8 line. Unfortunately weren’t able to capitalise on his 8 dimes, something we’ve been on a bit, but once again had 14 potentials so can feel pretty confident about his dimes coming back. The main adjustment Stevens made was dropping Theis back but expect Spo to find ways to take advantage of that if they do it again. Expect big minutes from him again here.

• Bam over 21.5 Points + Assists @ 1.86 with B365 – 1.25 units

I don’t think Boston winning G5 was due to them ‘figuring things out’ I honestly think it just came down to Miami missing shots. Miami were 7-36 from 3 and all those misses resulted in transition opportunities for Boston. I think Miami close it out today. Crowder explosion?  He’s getting great looks. 

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Staking Plan

• Smart over 17.5 Points + Assists @ 1.76 with B365 – 1.25 units
• Brown over 29.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.89 with Sportsbet – 1 unit
• Bam over 21.5 Points + Assists @ 1.86 with B365 – 1.25 units
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