Our Professional NBA Tips, Analysis & Staking Plan 28/4

Results:

• 89.16 Units Profit
• 16.75% ROI

• View Results Spreadsheets

Celtics vs Thunder 9:10am AEST

Looove the spot for Dort here. He’s been resting sporadically and now joins the rest of the team who are on the second night of a b2b, so you have to think he’s going to be a touch more aggressive coming in fresh. He is going to have a date with Marcus Smart which scares me a little bit but the way the Celtics have been switching so much lately it shouldn’t be hard to get someone else onto him with a screen or two. Over his last 132 minutes playing alongside Bazley, Dort has put up a stupid 28/6/3 per 36 line. He’s had 8 straight games over a 21.8% usage (4 of them 25%+), and has covered this fairly comfortably in his last 4 active games with PRA totals of 52,34,35,27. Numbers are up across the board over his last 4: Drives 16.5 (up from 9.3), 3.6 minutes of touch time (up from 2.0), 33.8 front-court touches (up from 24.5), 56.3 touches (up from 38.7), 6.8 potentials (up from 3.2). Role is awesome and with Celtics missing both Kemba and Tatum, OKC should be able to hang here.

• Lu Dort over 23.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.93 with Topsport – 1.2 units
• Lu Dort over 24.5 Points @ 5.50 with Sportsbet – 0.2 units
• Lu Dort over 19.5 Points / OKC WIN @ 10.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units

Hornets vs Bucks 9:10am AEST

Value has evaporated on his 3’s but his points line is still fine for the role he’s in currently. He’s playing huge minutes with 34+ in 4 of his last 5 (Chicago disaster) and he’s been getting the bulk of his minutes at centre where he’s crushed this season. In 246 minutes as the lone centre (with no Hayward or LaMelo) he gets a 3.2% usage bump and is putting up a really strong 19.2 points per 36. I actually really like this matchup for his 3 pointers, as the Bucks primarily play drop coverage with Lopez hanging back so the pick and pop should be there all day. Hornets looked awesome against the Celtics and they are just full of confidence right now so can probably hang with the Bucks who aren’t as dominant on the road. He has 22+ in 4 of the last 5 games.

• PJ Washington over 14.5 Points @ 1.84 with Topsport – 1 unit

Blazers vs Pacers 9:10am AEST

Back here, I highlighted the role last game and it was just as expected so happy to come back here, despite the juice. He had 0 assists in the first half (a few 3 dribble makes and a handful of potentials), but racked up 5 in the second half which was awesome to see just highlighting how capable he is. This game is going to be ridiculously high scoring and there should be a ton of value everywhere. He could go beast mode against this extremely undersized Pacers front-court.

Hmm was going to take his assists line at 1.71 but the more I think about it the more I want to take his PRA. Jakar is 6’7 214 lbs, and Oshae is 6’7 210 – they are going to seriously struggle with Nurkic’s huge 7’0 275 lbs frame. He’s really turned it on over his last couple with 48 and 40 PRA games in just 29 minutes. In that first Memphis game he was matched up with Tillman who is 6’8 240 lbs and Nurk just absolutely killed him with physicality. Should keep it rolling here in a really fast paced matchup.  WCJ had 24 PRA in 20 minutes, Bamba had 26 PRA in 25 minutes, Plumlee had 43 PRA in 28 minutes and Brown had 24 PRA in 16 minutes over the last week.

• Jusuf Nurkic over 28.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.80 with B365 – 1.3 units
• Jufuc Nurkic over 39.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 8.00 with TAB – 0.2 units

Nets vs Raptors 9:40am AEST

He hasn’t been subject to resting like the other Raptors have, but it’s pretty obvious that he is going to get far better looks when he’s out there with FVV and Lowry, two champion guards as opposed to rookie Flynn running the point. He has a 71 minute sample with FVV and Lowry on the court and his per 36 numbers are stellar with 13/9/2.5 which is up big time from the 9.8/7.8/2.0 line with them off and Flynn on. Gets the dream matchup here against the Nets who have just been leaking points to centres at the 8th most over the last month, as well as giving up the 11th most rebounds. Chemistry with Lowry really looks like it’s starting to click.

• Khem Birch over 16.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.88 with Topsport – 1.3 units

Rockets vs Wolves 11:10am AEST

Never one to be happy about players getting hurt or missing time, but it was hard to not be excited about Wall sitting the rest of the season and the timing couldn’t have been better as I have 9 season long fantasy GFs starting this week, with KPJ in every single one of them. He is going to absolutely rip up for the rest of the season and it’s going to be a lot of fun. Little bit of a shame he’s coming off a week out which may put a limit on his minute upside, but he is going to get mid 30s with close to 40 upside assuming he’s stayed in shape as the Rockets just do not have any other guards. The ball will be in his hands a ton and he’s got an awesome 19.8/4.6/9.8 per 36 line without Wall and Augustin on the court this season. Wolves D has massively improved but they are coming into this one on a b2b after 2 big wins so it might be a little bit of a let down spot for them. They still have the 27th ranked D over the last 2 weeks.

• Kevin Porter Jr over 29.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.97 with Topsport – 1 unit
• Kevin Porter Jr over 9.5 Assists @ 3.60 with Sportsbet – 0.2 units

Staking Plan – 6.5 units out

• Lu Dort over 23.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.93 with Topsport – 1.2 units
• Lu Dort over 24.5 Points @ 5.50 with Sportsbet – 0.2 units
• Lu Dort over 19.5 Points / OKC WIN @ 10.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units
• PJ Washington over 14.5 Points @ 1.84 with Topsport – 1 unit
• Jusuf Nurkic over 28.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.80 with B365 – 1.3 units
• Jufuc Nurkic over 39.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 8.00 with TAB – 0.2 units
• Khem Birch over 16.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.88 with Topsport – 1.3 units
• Kevin Porter Jr over 29.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.97 with Topsport – 1 unit
• Kevin Porter Jr over 9.5 Assists @ 3.60 with Sportsbet – 0.2 units
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