Our Professional NBA Tips, Analysis & Staking Plan 28/2

Season Results:

• 203 Wins / 422 Losses
• 91.07 Units Profit
• +27.09% ROI
• View Results Spreadsheets

Wolves vs Wizards 11:10am AEST

3 dimes in the first quarter then picked up some very questionable fouls last game which always throws off a players rhythm. We were probably lucky to cash the assist bet with how things ended up panning out. Rough timing for Finch with Beasley’s suspension but the early signs on KAT are so so strong. He is going to play him big minutes, and he’s going to be involved in everything when he’s out there. He was on track to play 39 minutes in the game against the Bucks, then foul trouble really kept him limited but he still worked up to 31 minutes before fouling out. He’s averaging 25/8 in the two games since Finch has taken over which covers this line, but he’s done it in just 33 minutes and I really thing he’s going to be pushing 40 here. Am sure Finch wants nothing more than to get a win under his belt, and his best shot at doing that is playing his best player as much as possible. All the advanced stats are pointing the right way (remember this is in limited minutes) with his touch time up to 2.5 minutes from 2.1, elbow touches have doubled to 6.0 from 3.0 and most importantly his usage is up to 30.2% from 26.7%. His minutes have been matched with Beasley a lot, so theres only a 71 minutes sample but Towns’ usage without Beasley jumps 8.6% up to 36.2% posting a 34.2/13.6/1.0 per 36 line. He gets a premium matchup here against the Wizards and their 26th ranked defence. They also allow the 7th most points to centres on the season. It’s pretty obvious that Lopez is the better defender but the Wizards have been rolling with Mo in the starting line-up and they didn’t make any adjustments against Jokic so I think they’ll keep Mo starting who Kat should just destroy him.

• Karl Anthony Towns over 32.5 Points + Assists @ 1.83 with Sportsbet – 1.5 units
• Karl Anthony Towns over 49.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 3.80 with TAB – 0.4 units
• Karl Anthony Towns over 9.5 Rebounds / over 9.5 Assists @ 15.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units

Staking Plan – 5.4 units out

• Karl Anthony Towns over 32.5 Points + Assists @ 1.83 with Sportsbet – 1.5 units
• Karl Anthony Towns over 49.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 3.80 with TAB – 0.4 units
• Karl Anthony Towns over 9.5 Rebounds / over 9.5 Assists @ 15.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units
• Zion Williamson over 30.5 Points + Assists @ 1.83 with B365 – 1.5 units
• Lonnie Walker over 19.5 Points @ 5.00 with Sportsbet – 0.2 units
• James Harden over 41.5 Points + Assists @ 1.83 with B365 – 1 unit
• Kristaps Porzingis over 24.5 Points @ 3.00 with Sportsbet – 0.5 units
• Kristaps Porzingis over 29.5 Points @ 7.00 with Sportsbet – 0.2 units
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