Our Professional NBA Tips, Analysis & Staking Plan 28/1

Season Results:

• 108 Wins / 159 Losses
• 88.40 Units Profit
• +57.54% ROI
• View Results Spreadsheets

Pistons vs Cavs 11:10am

Just a small bet to kick off the day here. This game is going to be pretty gross and something I don’t want to be heavily invested in, but it does set up for Plumlee to have a decent game. I’ve mentioned previously that the Cavs allow the most makes at the rim to opposing centres so with Plumlee taking 91% of his shots there (99th percentile amongst bigs) he could have a cheeky offensive game. Hasn’t really shown it at all this season with just 6 games in double figure scoring and there isn’t much upside to him but we are getting a decent price for a double double considering his points line is 8.5 & rebound line is 7.5. His rebound % goes up from 17.9% to 20.7% without Griffin and may get some extra minutes today to combat the huge Cavs front-court. Coming off 10/10 last game.

• Mason Plumlee double-double @ 6.75 with B365 – 0.2 units

Great to see the minutes cap come off Garland tonight. He has had a pair of rough matchups against the Celtics and Lakers but gets a perfect chance to break out today and find some rhythm. He was a notable usage monster in the pre-season and that continued into the start of the season, playing some great basketball before he got hurt including lighting up the Pistons with 21/12. Despite playing with Drummond and Sexton, he’s managed to keep a strong usage in the 3 games back at 23.8% which makes a line like this look awfully low if he can get back into the 30s in minutes as he’s at 16.3/3.0/6.4 per 36 for the season.

• Darius Garland over 19.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.80 with TAB – 1.2 units
• Darius Garland over 24.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 3.4 with TAB – 0.3 units
• Darius Garland over 29.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 8.50 with TAB – 0.1 units

Kings vs Magic 11:10am

Love this spot for Holmes today. Gets an awesome matchup against the Magic who allow the most points per possession to the roll man and the second most points per game. Holmes is extremely efficient in his PNR play in the 91st percentile of PPP as the roll man. His minutes look pretty safe even with Whiteside probable today, as he was essentially booted from the rotation before his injury anyway. He’s played 30+ minutes in 6 straight, covering this in the first 4 before a couple of down games against the Clipper and Knicks but I like him to bounce back here and they’ll likely need his defence against Vooch.

• Richaun Holmes over 12.5 Points @ 1.95 with B365 – 1 unit
• Richaun Holmes over 19.5 Points @ 8.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units

Fox has been in beast mode and the advanced stats are backing that up of late. Over the last 3 games he’s averaging 8.1 minutes of touch time (5th in league, up from 6.6 on season), 23.0 drives (4th in league, up from 16.6 on season), 19.3 potentials (1st in league, up from 13.3 on season). This has resulted in a 30.0/3.7/9.0 line in 36.8 minutes. Absolutely love the matchup for him today as I think him and Holmes are just going to be able to toy with the Magic as they’ve been getting torched by PNR handlers as well, giving up the 10th most PPP. They have allowed the 6th most points to PGs on the season, Should be an absolute smash spot for him against rookie Cole Anthony. If you can’t get these prices 30+ Pts & 12+ Ast individually both offer good value across all the agencies.

• De’Aaron Fox over 29.5 Points + Assists @ 1.83 with B365 – 1.4 units
• De’Aaron Fox over 39.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 4.00 with TAB – 0.2 units
• De’Aaron Fox over 44.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 8.50 with TAB – 0.1 units
• De’Aaron Fox over 49.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 21.00 with TAB – 0.1 units

Heat vs Nuggets 11:40am

Hard not to come back to him here. The guy is just so offensively gifted and he received praise from everywhere post game against Dallas. There has been a lot of talk about him moving back into the starting line-up, but I actually quite like him with the second unit in a high usage role and we can be pretty sure he’ll close most games from here on out, especially since he’s started giving some effort defensively. It’ll likely be Iggy guarding him in the second unit but this line just seems far too low. Upside will always be there for him, but not getting much value there today and I feel a lot more confident in his minutes now 3 games back and after a big night. Bam is going to make it very tough on Jokic tonight (really close to taking his under) which should see some extra usage headed to the other guys. It’ll also likely mean the Heat won’t need to double him, so there won’t be as many easy shots for there other guys so may need someone to create their own offence.

• Michael Porter Jr over 21.5 Points + Rebounds @ 1.80 with B365 – 2 units

Suns vs Thunder 1:10pm

The line is creeping up a bit but he’s been so good of late it’s hard not to take him again here in a strong matchup. He’s played 34+ minutes in 4 straight games now and his rotation looks set until Saric comes back which dramatically increases his floor. He’s been awesome in those 4 games clearing this in all of them, averaging 36.8 PR and although he was relatively kept in check last game against Denver without Booker, he had a 4.5% usage bump without Booker on the floor (dropped now due to the low usage game) but I’d expect it to come back up today. Horford coming back in isn’t too much of a concern as opponents actually shoot 4.6% better at the rim with him on the court. OKC give up the 6th most points in the paint which is where Ayton does his damage.

• Deandre Ayton over 29.5 Points + Rebounds @ 1.80 with B365 – 1 unit

Staking Plan – 7.7 units out

• Mason Plumlee double-double @ 6.75 with B365 – 0.2 units
• Darius Garland over 19.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.80 with TAB – 1.2 units
• Darius Garland over 24.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 3.4 with TAB – 0.3 units
• Darius Garland over 29.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 8.50 with TAB – 0.1 units
• Richaun Holmes over 12.5 Points @ 1.95 with B365 – 1 unit
• Richaun Holmes over 19.5 Points @ 8.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units
• De’Aaron Fox over 29.5 Points + Assists @ 1.83 with B365 – 1.4 units
• De’Aaron Fox over 39.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 4.00 with TAB – 0.2 units
• De’Aaron Fox over 44.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 8.50 with TAB – 0.1 units
• De’Aaron Fox over 49.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 21.00 with TAB – 0.1 units
• Michael Porter Jr over 21.5 Points + Rebounds @ 1.80 with B365 – 2 units
• Deandre Ayton over 29.5 Points + Rebounds @ 1.80 with B365 – 1 unit
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