Our Professional NBA Tips, Analysis & Staking Plan 27/5

Results:

• 89.16 Units Profit
• 16.75% ROI

• View Results Spreadsheets

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Wizards vs 76ers 9:10am AEST

Obviously not a great matchup verse the 76ers here but this line is just a touch low. He’s clearly their best centre right now and although Brooks is adamant he’s not ready to play big minutes, it was extremely encouraging to see him be the first centre in last game which opens up a ton more minutes. During the regular season he was coming in to open the 2nd, which makes it hard to get 2 stints in the first half, but checking in around the 5:00 mark in the 1st qtr, then playing the first few mins of the 2nd, he’s then able to come back to close out the half and can easily get to 12 minutes in each half. He averages 0.91 PRA since going to the Wiz, and just 17 minutes at that rate gets him there. He had 12/6/2 in 20 minutes in G1, and has covered this 8/8 times when playing 20+ minutes. He’s had 20 PRA in 6/8 games he’s played 20 minutes.

• Daniel Gafford over 14.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.85 with TAB – 1 unit
• Daniel Gafford over 19.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 3.80 with TAB – 0.2 units

Knicks vs Hawks 9:40am AEST

Getting an awesome price here. The Knicks guard rotation is very messy and they’ll likely just be rolling with the hot hand for their closing line-up, so if Burks is playing well he can play himself into that easily. Throughout the year Thibs liked closing with Burks so he probably doesn’t need to do too much. Hawks absolutely loaded up on Randle with a ton of double teams, which we can certainly expect again, meaning the shots are going to have to come from elsewhere. He is capable of getting his own shot late clock and is coming off an awesome 27 point game.

• Alec Burks over 19.5 Points @ 5.50 with Sportsbet – 0.3 units

Jazz vs Grizzlies 12:00pm AEST

I’m sure you saw this one coming.

“Man what an absolute disaster from the Jazz today as Donny gets ruled out and then they just absolutely capitulated. 10! first half turnovers, had a stretch going 2-19 from 3 – majority of them (other than Clarkson who was just awful today) were wide open as the Grizzlies just can’t rotate quick enough while JV is out there so with any ball movement which Jazz are obviously great at they can find themselves a good look. Just wasn’t their day today as they couldn’t knock anything down. Didn’t help Rudy fouled out in just 25 minutes (he was +9) and Conley battled foul trouble too getting up to just 33 minutes (he was +11). Very very frustrating but happy with the read. Maybe Snyder pulls his finger out and decides to play his best players a bit more like every other good coach in the league, and if he does then I still feel pretty good about Jazz wrapping this up in 5.”

Wrote this after G1, and have had another day to think on it. It’s a similar setup to to the Bucks & Nets bets, where the home team just shot awfully then came out and blitzed the other team. More than happy to just chalk this one up to rust as the talent gap between these two teams is just way too big. As I mentioned above without the tracking data, it felt like the Jazz were getting great looks and boy the data shows exactly that. They generated a ridiculous 23 WIDE open 3 point looks which puts to bed any speculation about the Jazz system only working in the regular season. They knocked down 8 of them which turns out to be 34%, but they went 4-9 (no data but assume most of them in the 4th quarter comeback. On top of the 23 wide open looks, they had another 18 open 3s, hitting just 4 of them for 22%. That is just 12-41 (29%). At home during the regular season, they were 9-21 on wide open 3s and 6-16 on open 3s (15-37, 40%). Not only will some shooting regression occur here, but they get their guy Donny back which is beneficial two-fold as he’s obviously very talented, plus it means we’ll see less Clarkson. On top of that, they don’t want to go down 2-0 so expect the defence to be extremely scrappy and we are going to see a lot more Conley and Gobert.

• Utah Jazz -8.5 @ 1.86 with Sportsbet – 1.3 units
• Utah Jazz -19.5 @ 5.00 with Sportsbet – 0.2 units

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Staking Plan – 3.0 units out

• Daniel Gafford over 14.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.85 with TAB – 1 unit
• Daniel Gafford over 19.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 3.80 with TAB – 0.2 units
• Alec Burks over 19.5 Points @ 5.50 with Sportsbet – 0.3 units
• Utah Jazz -8.5 @ 1.86 with Sportsbet – 1.3 units
• Utah Jazz -19.5 @ 5.00 with Sportsbet – 0.2 units

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