Our Professional NBA Tips, Analysis & Staking Plan 27/2

Season Results:

• 203 Wins / 422 Losses
• 91.07 Units Profit
• +27.09% ROI
• View Results Spreadsheets

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Kings vs Pistons 12:10pm AEST

Bagley could be the biggest winner of Haliburton sitting. The Kings have 6 main guys: Fox, Haliburton, Hield, Barnes, Bagley & Holmes. From those 6 it’s Fox, Hield, Barnes & Holmes who are constants in the closing line-up and the 5th spot is usually a hot hand approach but more often than not this season it’s been Haliburton because he’s just been playing so well. With him out here Bagley should slot back in (maybe CoJo if he’s playing well but Bagley will have his chance). Whiteside is also out here which free’s up even more minutes for Bagley to play as the backup C. Holmes is still working his way back from injury and only got up to 28 minutes yesterday, so it’s hard to see him play much more than 30 on the b2b. Bagley has been super super productive as C getting a 2.4% usage bump scoring 22.1 points per 36. He was balling yesterday but picked up fouls 3 and 4 1 minute into the 3rd quarter so only played 22 minutes, but scored 19 points and looked really good. Get’s an awesome matchup here with the Pistons who allow the 5th most points in the paint.

• Marvin Bagley over 14.5 Points @ 1.76 with Sportsbet – 1.2 units
• Marvin Bagley over 19.5 Points @ 3.60 with Sportsbet – 0.2 units

Frustrating there aren’t more lines up for him here as we have to go with the Nedbrokes scam x+ markets (really really would avoid these as much as possible as they offer ridiculously bad prices the majority of the time). Anyways, too good a spot to ignore and he has all the making of someone who could be super productive. Casey said he wanted to limit everyones minutes in the b2b so he only got up to 21 against the Pels, but I could not believe he had 19 drives in those 21 minutes which is insane. For reference, in their last game 3 other guys had 19 drives around the league: Dejounte (31 mins in an absurdly high usage game missing heaps of guys), Brogdon (35 minutes) and Lavine (41 minutes). Lee has shown he is more than capable of filling it up when given the opportunity averaging 15.3 points across his last 3 games in just 27 minutes. The PG time-share with DSJ is pretty frustrating but he doesn’t need much time to cash in here in what could not be a better matchup. DSJ obviously is also in a good spot, so he could get going and earn himself more minutes.

• Saben Lee over 14.5 Points @ 3.00 with Neds – 0.7 units

“Kings allow the 19th most shots at the rim and 19th most shots from floater range, but they just can’t defend them with the personnel they have allowing the 5th highest FG% at the rim and 6th highest FG% from floater range which amounts to giving up the most points in the paint per game. He’s coming off a tough matchup against Draymond (still scored 25) so is going to relish versing the defensively challenged Bagley here.”

Far out it was frustrating watching Randle settle for jumpers all game yesterday and not cash in on the great matchup, but it’s a similar spot for Grant today and he should be ready to go after sitting out a game for rest. He has pretty similar shooting splits to Randle taking about 50% of his total shots at the rim or from floater range. Just needs to be aggressive here and he should be set for a big night against this awful Kings defence. Missed the opening line of 22.5 which is a little annoying and the 24.5 is getting high to deploy a unit on, so just having a go at his alts today as he’s capable of huge games.

• Jerami Grant over 29.5 Points @ 3.40 with B365 – 0.4 units
• Jerami Grant over 34.5 Points @ 8.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units

Jazz vs Heat 12:10pm AEST

I generally don’t even bother digging into games like this one with 2 really strong defences coming up each other but I was stunned to see this line for Nunn so low. I’m not brave enough to have much on here against this Jazz juggernaut who allow the leagues fewest assists, but the role is awesome and if he has another big game I doubt we’ll be seeing this price again. At time of writing both Bam and Herro are questionable (I would presume Bam plays and Herro sits), which is just another unknown making it hard to bet big on. He exploded for 20/5/9 2 back (No Dragic or Herro) but managed to keep the dimes up with Dragic coming back last game finishing with 7. He’s averaging 13.5 potentials and 8 dimes over his last 2 so it’s wild to see such a low line. Have to have a bit on incase the role remains.

• Kendrick Nunn over 3.5 Assists @ 3.60 with Sportsbet – 0.3 units
• Kendrick Nunn over 5.5 Assists @ 14.00 with Sportsbet – 0.3 units

Thunder vs Hawks 12:10pm AEST

My word this guy just keeps getting better and better. He clearly leads the league in drives up at 25.5 per game which is insane in itself (Luka 2nd 23.3, Ja 3rd 20.2) but that’s really jumped up over his last 3 to 29.0 per game. He is scoring at a crazy efficiency with 17.3 points off those drives on 10 FGA. Hawks don’t really have the best perimeter defence which has resulted in them allowing 35.8% of shots at the rim (7th most in the league), and they will be without their two best perimeter defenders today in Reddish and Hunter. Capela has done a decent job protecting the rim as the 12th best rim defence but the volume is going to be there and he should get some minutes vs Collins too. Gets a 0.8% usage bump without Horford on the floor.

• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander over 30.5 Points + Assists @ 1.80 with B365 – 1.2 units
• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander over 34.5 Points @ 7.50 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units

Warriors vs Hornets 2:10pm AEST

Zeller is likely going to be out here, so Biyombo will likely move into the starting line-up which opens up more Washington minutes at the 5, which then opens up more minutes for McDaniels at the 4. Borrego talked him up and had an interesting quote saying he could “easily increase McDaniels minutes”. He also said he can play both the 3 and the 4 and positional flexibility is huge for guys finding paths to more minutes. He’s fairly productive sitting at 0.59 PR per minute on the season, so 17 minutes puts him at 10.03. Over the last 4 games, he’s played 24, 18, 24, 15 and now with Zeller out i think he should see the higher end of that scale around 22-24 which gives us a big edge.

• Jalen McDaniels over 9.5 Points + Rebounds @ 1.83 with B365 – 1 unit

Blazers vs Lakers 2:10pm AEST

Betting against the Lakers is no longer a no go, as they have the leagues worst half-court defence over the last month and the 28th ranked overall. Lillard is just ridiculous and he’s been awesome getting the rest of his team involved covering this line in 7 of his last 8 games. He’s averaging 10.6 dimes in that span and although toward the start of the stretch he was getting a little lucky with dimes, he’s now creating a ton more potentials including 21 last game against the Nuggets. Dennis coming back definitely helps the Lakers a bit, but they are in shambles right now and he may be limited, so have to have something on the Blazers here at the big price.

• Damian Lillard over 8.5 Assists @ 1.91 with Sportsbet – 1 unit
• Damian Lillard over 7.5 Assists / Blazers win @ 3.75 with Sportsbet – 0.3 units
• Damian Lillard over 9.5 Assists / Blazers win @ 5.75 with Sportsbet – 0.2 units

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Staking Plan – 8.3 units out

• Marvin Bagley over 14.5 Points @ 1.76 with Sportsbet – 1.2 units
• Marvin Bagley over 19.5 Points @ 3.60 with Sportsbet – 0.2 units
• Saben Lee over 14.5 Points @ 3.00 with Neds – 0.7 units
• Jerami Grant over 29.5 Points @ 3.40 with B365 – 0.4 units
• Jerami Grant over 34.5 Points @ 8.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units
• Kendrick Nunn over 3.5 Assists @ 3.60 with Sportsbet – 0.3 units
• Kendrick Nunn over 5.5 Assists @ 14.00 with Sportsbet – 0.3 units
• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander over 30.5 Points + Assists @ 1.80 with B365 – 1.2 units
• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander over 34.5 Points @ 7.50 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units
• Jalen McDaniels over 9.5 Points + Rebounds @ 1.83 with B365 – 1 unit
• Damian Lillard over 8.5 Assists @ 1.91 with Sportsbet – 1 unit
• Damian Lillard over 7.5 Assists / Blazers win @ 3.75 with Sportsbet – 0.3 units
• Damian Lillard over 9.5 Assists / Blazers win @ 5.75 with Sportsbet – 0.2 units
• DeAndre Ayton over 27.5 Points + Rebounds + Assts @ 1.77 with TopSport – 1.3 units
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