Our Professional NBA Tips, Analysis & Staking Plan 27/1

Season Results:

• 108 Wins / 159 Losses
• 88.40 Units Profit
• +57.54% ROI
• View Results Spreadsheets

Clippers vs Hawks 11:40am AEST

With Kawhi, PG & Beverly all out today, someone is going to have to take shots and so far this season it’s been Kennard getting the biggest boost with them off the floor. He’s received an 11.2% usage bump without those 3 guys up to 27.2% in a 54 minute sample and put up an insanely strong 23.8/4/6.6 per 36 line. He’s shot 63.6% from 3 in that sample so the points may come down a little, but we are still getting a large edge here on his PRA line. He has shown he can be productive in the past, with a 17.3/3.8/4.5 per 36 last season in 28 games with Detroit. He won’t win any games on the defensive but he’s looked really good offensively this season and am excited to see him in a larger role. Clippers just paid him a truck load so I’m sure they are keen to see how productive he can be as well. May even get some garbage time if it pans out that way.

• Luke Kennard over 23.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 2.00 with TopSport – 1.2 units

Rockets vs Wizards 12:10pm AEST

Very hard to trust his shot from what we’ve seen this season, but with Wood out again he should be in for another 30 minute game here and he has been an absolute menace on the boards in his last couple averaging 16 in 30.5 mins which covers this line alone. Should be able to hang around the basket again here with Lopez not offering any sort of outside threat. Wizards have given up the 6th most rebounds to centres this season so he’s in a nice spot here. He’s always been a good passer, and he’s averaging 5.6 dimes per 36 on the season including the 5 and 7 he’s had over the last 2. Having a little something on his 3 pointers again as he’s been jacking them up with 14 combines over the last 2 games, and he may have found his stroke after knocking down 4 last time out.

• Demarcus Cousins over 15.5 Rebounds + Assists @ 1.83 with B365 – 1 unit
• Demarcus Cousins over 3.5 3 Pointers @ 6.50 with TAB – 0.1 units

Don’t buy into narrative street often but it’s hard to ignore when someone blatantly comes out and says something like this:

“[There are] a lot of people on that side that probably didn’t believe I could come back to be the person I am,” Wall said. “Who wouldn’t want to beat the team that traded them and felt like I was done? … That’s just my motivation there. They thought I was done. Basically, that’s how I feel. This is my opportunity to show them that I’m not done.”

He only played 20 minutes in his return against Dallas, so I’m a little cautious and don’t want to have a big outlay here but we have to have something on his upside.

• John Wall over 29.5 Points @ 5.50 with TAB – 0.2 units

Another small bet here as I’m not entirely sure how this rotation is going to shake out today if Neto comes back. It was super encouraging to see Robinson play 35 minutes last game and even more encouraging to see him jack up 10 3 pointers. That is some serious volume and although he’s a career 32% shooter, he can be streaky and gets a good matchup against the Rockets who allow the 7th most 3 pointers.

• Jerome Robinson over 3.5 3 Pointers @ 4.75 with B365 – 0.2 units
• Jerome Robinson over 4.5 3 Pointers @ 9.50 with B365 – 0.1 units

Staking Plan – 2.8 units out

• Luke Kennard over 23.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 2.00 with TopSport – 1.2 units
• Demarcus Cousins over 15.5 Rebounds + Assists @ 1.83 with B365 – 1 unit
• Demarcus Cousins over 3.5 3 Pointers @ 6.50 with TAB – 0.1 units
• John Wall over 29.5 Points @ 5.50 with TAB – 0.2 units
• Jerome Robinson over 3.5 3 Pointers @ 4.75 with B365 – 0.2 units
• Jerome Robinson over 4.5 3 Pointers @ 9.50 with B365 – 0.1 units
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