Our Professional NBA Tips, Analysis & Staking Plan 26/2

Season Results:

• 203 Wins / 422 Losses
• 91.07 Units Profit
• +27.09% ROI
• View Results Spreadsheets

[adrotate banner=”81″]

76ers vs Mavs 11:10am AEST

It seems like Doc is still figuring some stuff out with this team but Curry’s minutes have been as consistent as ever over the last 6 games playing 34+ in all of them. It’s really hard to get a firm grasp on the teams play-making duties with Simmons sometimes playing more off ball, sometimes in score first mode etc but the variability creates some decent odds for us to have a little spec on. Curry sat last game, but the game prior to that he finished with 6 dimes and create a team 2nd 13 potentials. Can’t really bet big on this as his role fluctuates so much (had 0 dimes from 2 potentials the game prior) but it’s a great matchup against the Mavs team so just getting a little exposure.

• Seth Curry over 4.5 Assists @ 7.50 with Sportsbet – 0.2 units
• Seth Curry over 5.5 Assists @ 15.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units

Magic vs Nets 11:40am AEST

I really liked this spot for Vooch, so I was digging into this game to find reasons of why I think Magic can take this game deep into the 4th but the more I looked the harder it was to find a case. I just don’t see how the Magic and their 28th ranked offence (27th over last two weeks) are going to be able to hang with the Nets. They have been able to stay in games this season because of their defence (13th) but they aren’t on the same level as the Clippers, Suns, Lakers, Warriors and Pacers who the Nets have had no problems scoring on over the last 2 weeks en route to the number 1 offensive rating in that span. Looking a bit deeper, the Magic have had their defensive success by allowing the leagues fewest offensive rebounds, and allowing the fewest opponent putbacks attempts and points off those put backs (sign of a well coached team). This doesn’t really effect the Nets too much as they rank down at 20th in put-back attempts and points off put-backs. Where the Magic slip is their half-court defence where they are ranked 23rd in the league. Not good when they are coming up against the best half-court team in the league. If they are able to hang around, it’ll be off the back of Vooch here who gets a really favourable matchup. Haven’t bought into it too much this season but the sample is getting large enough now and the Nets have a +5.1 net rating at home vs +2.4 on the road while the Magic are -4.3 at home vs -6.8 on the road.

• Brooklyn Nets -8.5 @ 1.90 with TAB – 1 unit
• James Harden 10+ Assists / Brooklyn win @ 1.72 with Sportsbet – 1 unit

Kings vs Knicks 11:40am AEST

This line is getting a little high but this couldn’t set up any better for Randle. He’s cleared this in 4 straight and 5 of his last 6 (22 other) and it’s a dream matchup for him today. He shoots 30% of his shots at the rim, and 26% from floater range which is where the Kings have been getting absolutely torched this season. They allow the 19th most shots at the rim and 19th most shots from floater range, but they just can’t defend them with the personnel they have allowing the 5th highest FG% at the rim and 6th highest FG% from floater range which amounts to giving up the most points in the paint per game. He’s coming off a tough matchup against Draymond (still scored 25) so is going to relish versing the defensively challenged Bagley here. Looks like Payton is going to miss this one, which is good news for Randle who gets a 2.0% usage bump with Payton off the court. Both Quickley and Rose are better 3 point shooters than Payton so he should have some extra space to work inside.

• Julius Randle over 23.5 Points @ 1.88 with Topsport – 1.2 units

Clippers vs Grizzlies 12:10pm AEST

Came back in a tough matchup vs Utah where he was a little rusty finishing with just 15 points but has clearly shaken that rust off now with back to back 30 point games including 34 against the Nets. He played 32 minutes there and got pulled as he’s on a minute cap, then only needed 28 minutes in the blowout against Wizards but was on track to play 32 again. It’s the front end of a b2b here so they may not extend him (may bump him up a bit here and then rest him tomorrow) but he shouldn’t need any more than that in an awesome matchup for him. Grizzlies defence has really fallen off lately to around league average and they’ve really picked up the pace playing at the 9th fastest over their last 7 games. They’ll probably throw Dillon Brooks on him to begin with and although it looks like he’s doing something he’s more of a nuisance than a good defender and he is really foul prone. PG has been doing scorching from behind the arc, and the Grizzlies allow the 4th highest 3pt %. As mentioned he has b2b 30 point games, nice price.

• Paul George over 23.5 Points @ 1.95 with TAB – 1.2 units
• Paul George over 29.5 Points @ 4.25 with TAB – 0.2 units

Nuggets vs Wizards 1:10pm AEST

Looked to have hurt his shoulder early in the game against the Blazers which may have been the reason for the slow start scoring just 6 points through 3 quarters, but he seemingly over-come that late erupting in the 4th to finish with 24 points. Not entirely sure why but there was a bit of beef between Kanter and Jokic from the get-go and it turned into a really physical battle down low. Was obvious Jokic wanted to get the better of him which resulted in him taking 32 FGA which was his second highest mark of the season. Before that game, Jokic had been taking a back-seat to Jamal and I think we might see more from him today. He gets the gun matchup as neither Westbrook or Beal can guard him (or anyone) which has resulted in the Wizards giving up the 2nd most points to PGs this season. Has scored 25+ in 5 of his last 6 (24 last game) including a 35 point game against the Wizards just last week. Nuggets are rocking an 8 man rotation while they have so many injuries so if the game stays close and he’s hot we could see him push closer to 40 minutes here.

• Jamal Murray over 24.5 Points @ 1.83 with B365 – 1.3 units
• Jamal Murray over 34.5 Points @ 6.50 with TAB – 0.2 units

This game should be really high scoring (130-128 when they met last week) so sets up as a nice environment for a multi. Jokic and Murray were both able to get theirs in that game with Murray finishing on 35 and Jokic 33, while Beal struggled a touch finishing 8-20 with 25 points. He saw a lot of Gary Harris there but he is out here so it should be much easier for him. Westy had a 12/13/12 triple double.

• Westbrook over 19.5 Assists + Rebounds / Beal over 41.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists / Jokic over 36.5 Points + Assists / Jamal over 24.5 Points @ 11.00 with B365 – 0.3 units

Bucks vs Pelicans 1:40pm AEST

If you had’ve told me before last game Middleton was going to take 19 shots against the Wolves I would’ve though our 30+ was well and truly in play, but he went 6-19 and finished with 15 points which about sums up how things are going for us atm. Over the last 2 seasons, Middleton has taken 19+ FGA attempts 16 times and has covered the 21.5 point line in every single one of them averaging 29.75!! in those games. Giving him another go here as the line hasn’t budged, the role is awesome and he gets another great matchup here. The Pelicans have the 29th ranked defence at a 117.6 rating, which is awful, but it somehow gets even worse on b2b’s where they have a stupidly bad 124.1 defensive rating. All season long it’s been a directive from SVG to protect the paint, which means Giannis could have a bit of a tougher time here which may open up some more chances for Middleton. The Pels give up the 7th most points to opposing SFs but also allow the 2nd highest FG%. He couldn’t get a better opportunity to bounce back here and may have some extra motivation after not making the all star team.

• Khris Middleton over 21.5 Points @ 1.90 with Topsport – 1.3 units
• Khris Middleton over 29.5 Points @ 5.80 with TAB – 0.2 units

[adrotate banner=”81″]

Staking Plan – 8.2 units out

• Seth Curry over 4.5 Assists @ 7.50 with Sportsbet – 0.2 units
• Seth Curry over 5.5 Assists @ 15.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units
• Brooklyn Nets -8.5 @ 1.90 with TAB – 1 unit
• James Harden 10+ Assists / Brooklyn win @ 1.72 with Sportsbet – 1 unit
• Julius Randle over 23.5 Points @ 1.88 with Topsport – 1.2 units
• Paul George over 23.5 Points @ 1.95 with TAB – 1.2 units
• Paul George over 29.5 Points @ 4.25 with TAB – 0.2 units
• Jamal Murray over 24.5 Points @ 1.83 with B365 – 1.3 units
• Jamal Murray over 34.5 Points @ 6.50 with TAB – 0.2 units
• Westbrook over 19.5 Assists + Rebounds / Beal over 41.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists / Jokic over 36.5 Points + Assists / Jamal over 24.5 Points @ 11.00 with B365 – 0.3 units
• Khris Middleton over 21.5 Points @ 1.90 with Topsport – 1.3 units
• Khris Middleton over 29.5 Points @ 5.80 with TAB – 0.2 units
• Click Here To Get Top Odds With TopSport