Our Professional NBA Tips, Analysis & Staking Plan 25/9

Stuffed up today. Thought Denver would win and couldn’t capitalise, taking an unpleasant loss on the day.

Season Results:

• 375 Wins / 254 Losses
• +113.10 Units Of Profit
• 17.06% ROI

Heat vs Celtics 10:30am AEST

“They look a completely different team when they are out running in transition compared to the when things slow down late in the game. Lebron and AD are both great half-court players but their offence just turned to shit in the 4Q of G2. They were very lucky to hit some very tough late clock 3s to build a lead and ultimately escape with the game. They are playing at a 103.5 pace in the 1H and have an offensive rating of 126.2 (net rating of 21.4) through the 2 first halves, compared to a 92 pace and and a 109.8 offensive rating (-7.6 net rating) in the 2 second halves. They have won both first halves by 10 or more. Nuggets starting slow isn’t exactly new to this series either, with a -9.4 first half net rating through their 16 playoff games.” – wrote this before G2 which obviously didn’t come through for us, but it really feels like Nuggets have all the momentum in this series (should probably be up 2-1) so I’m expecting the Lakers, especially Lebron to come out aggressively. AD played the final 30 minutes of G3 which really looked to take a toll late, so they won’t want to be playing from behind again in this one.

• Lakers 1H -3.5 @ 1.90 with B365 – 1 unit
• Lakers 7+ / Denver 11+ @ 101.00 with TAB – 0.1 units
• Lakers 7+ / Denver 1-10 @ 18.00 with TAB – 0.1 units

With Danny and Caruso a little banged up, as well as McGee playing poorly, I think we might see a little more KCP today. He probably doesn’t need the extra time as he’s still lights out but seeing around 30 may allow him to get an extra shot up. He’s guarded Jamal really well, who is just 1-7 in the series against Pope so there is definitely another avenue to minutes for him as well.

• KCP over 1.5 3 pointers @ 1.74 with B365 – 0.75 units

It hasn’t really been about the opportunity for Grant these playoffs as we know Malone wants him out there for his defence, but he’s been forced to sit some second halves just because he can’t get anything at all going. Another big issue he has had is stringing good games together, not having scored double-digits back to back since the Utah series. He will get his open looks from 3 playing alongside Jokic and Murray, but it was aggressiveness in G3 which really stood out, getting himself to the line 12 times. There’s no way he will get there 12 times again, but it bodes well for him and I wouldn’t be shocked to see the shooting really come back around here for him as he should be full of confidence coming off a career playoff high. Malone mentioned he liked his defence on AD, which resulted in 6 minutes at centre which just provides him another avenue to staying on the court. He did have a stretch in January where he scored 14+ in 7 straight games.

• Grant over 10.5 Points @ 1.75 with TAB – 0.75 units **1.80 Neds/Ladbrokes**

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Staking Plan

• Lakers 1H -3.5 @ 1.90 with B365 – 1 unit
• Lakers 7+ / Denver 11+ @ 101.00 with TAB – 0.1 units
• Lakers 7+ / Denver 1-10 @ 18.00 with TAB – 0.1 units
• KCP over 1.5 3 pointers @ 1.74 with B365 – 0.75 units
• Grant over 10.5 Points @ 1.75 with TAB – 0.75 units **1.80 Neds/Ladbrokes**
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