Our Professional NBA Tips, Analysis & Staking Plan 25/5

Results:

• 89.16 Units Profit
• 16.75% ROI

• View Results Spreadsheets

Man what an absolute disaster from the Jazz today as Donny gets ruled out and then they just absolutely capitulated. 10! first half turnovers, had a stretch going 2-19 from 3 – majority of them (other than Clarkson who was just awful today) were wide open as the Grizzlies just can’t rotate quick enough while JV is out there so with any ball movement which Jazz are obviously great at they can find themselves a good look. Just wasn’t their day today as they couldn’t knock anything down. Didn’t help Rudy fouled out in just 25 minutes (he was +9) and Conley battled foul trouble too getting up to just 33 minutes (he was +11). Very very frustrating but happy with the read. Maybe Snyder pulls his finger out and decides to play his best players a bit more like every other good coach in the league, and if he does then I still feel pretty good about Jazz wrapping this up in 5.

Bucks vs Heat 9:40am AEST

Uh oh. It looks like Miami are in biiig trouble here. Big screw up from them not being able to find a way to win that one. Having Jrue just makes such a big difference as when him and Middleton are out there, one of them will be matched up with either Dragic/Herro/Robinson who they can just go at and you could see them figure that out throughout the game. They had huge 56 points in the paint which honestly looks like it will be sustainable moving forward but they were abysmal from behind the arc shooting just 5-31. The craziest part of that stat is how good the quality of looks they got were. They were just 1-12 on WIDE open 3’s (6th best in the regular season at 40.9%), and 2-12 on open 3’s (8th best in the regular season at 37.0%). On the other end, Miami just couldn’t get anything going in the paint as the Bucks shut it down, giving up just 24 paint points. This is exactly how they want their system to operate. Heat shot a stellar 40% on a seriously high volume 50! 3’s. I have a hard imagining Heat knocking down 20 triples again and an even harder time imagining Bucks will only hit 5, whilst the paint battle should remain around the same (Bam and Jimmy both missed a few easy ones which they should be able to rectify).

• Milwaukee Bucks -4.5 @ 1.91 with Topsport – 1 unit

Nuggets vs Blazers 12:10pm AEST

Definitely caught me off guard a bit but from game 1 it’s pretty clear how the Blazers want to play Jokic as they are trusting Nurkic and Kanter to defend him 1 on 1. It’s an interesting tactic, especially against a team with such a limited supporting cast currently, but it’s hard to imagine Stotts changing that up after the game 1 success. It really felt like they won that game on the offensive end going 19-40 from 3 so I think it may come back to bite them but until they start showing him a different coverage, this sets up as a nice bet. Was originally just going to take the assist under but if that hits it will almost certainly be because the coverage hasn’t changed in which case he’s likely going to be scoring a bunch. He’ll probably try and come out aggressive, to make Stotts at least have to think about changing it so he could be in for a huge scoring night if he does get going early. Have to note he did get super unlucky with just 1 dime from his 10 potentials, which almost certainly won’t happen again.

• Nikola Jokic 25+ Points / Under 7.5 Assists @ 2.40 with B365 – 1 unit
• Nikola Jokic 30+ Points / Under 7.5 Assists @ 3.60 with TAB – 0.4 units
• Nikola Jokic 35+ Points / Under 7.5 Assists @ 6.00 with TAB – 0.1 units

Staking Plan – 2.5 units out

• Milwaukee Bucks -4.5 @ 1.91 with Topsport – 1 unit
• Nikola Jokic 25+ Points / Under 7.5 Assists @ 2.40 with B365 – 1 unit
• Nikola Jokic 30+ Points / Under 7.5 Assists @ 3.60 with TAB – 0.4 units
• Nikola Jokic 35+ Points / Under 7.5 Assists @ 6.00 with TAB – 0.1 units

• Click Here To Get Top Odds With TopSport