Our Professional NBA Tips, Analysis & Staking Plan 25/2

Season Results:

• 180 Wins / 363 Losses
• 92.58 Units Profit
• +32.22% ROI
• View Results Spreadsheets

Timberwolves vs Bulls 12:10pm AEST

Early signs are so encouraging for the Wolves big man as he was awesome yesterday in what turned out to be a blowout loss against the Bucks finishing with 26/8/11. The low hanging fruit for Finch was just to play their best player more minutes, and he certainly did that as he played 35:48 and sat the final 3:13 due to blowout. Quite frustrating that the tracking data hasn’t come through for yesterday as I can’t see paint touches, touch time, potentials etc but I’ve gone back and re-watched most of it and to the eye the role looked awesome. The 11 assists did feel a little lucky as 5 of his 11 assists were to Beasley who finished the game 10-16 and 6-9 behind the arc. Probably can’t expect Beasley to repeat that performance but he was getting some awesome looks due to how much attention he draws from defences. I mentioned a few of the things Finch said in yesterday’s write up and he continued to hammer them in the presser after the game yesterday saying “KAT should be the centre of everything” and also mentioned that he wants to run some PNR with KAT as the ball handler. Compared KATs skill set to Jokic, Randle and Boogie who are all very good passers from the positions. Only little concern is the b2b, but I love the matchup and Finch will really be pushing hard to get a win on the board early. I do quite like his 30+ PA line on B365 too.

• Karl Anthony Towns over 4.5 Assists @ 1.88 with Topsport – 1.5 units
• Karl Anthony Towns over 7.5 Assists @ 6.50 with TAB – 0.3 units
• Karl Anthony Towns 10+ Assists / 10+ Rebounds @ 18.50 with Sportsbet SGM – 0.2 units

Pistons vs Pelicans 12:10pm AEST

Had a big play for Zion PA written up here but the Jerami Grant scratching scares me as the Pistons may really struggle on the b2b here. Zion continues to impress with the ball in his hands with 4 straight games of 4+ assists. He’s had 4.0 minutes of touch time in those games which is well up from the 2.5 on the season. He’s actually been a little unlucky with his dimes as he’s been averaging 9.5 potentials over that span. Just having a little on here at the nice price as there’s a few paths to this saluting; game stays close and he gets his full minutes which puts this in play, game blows out because Pels are hitting their shots which would probably mean that assist/potential ratio comes right up.

• Zion Williamson over 5.5 Assists @ 4.00 with Sportsbet – 0.3 units

I am really really surprised that we are getting this line for Bey. His PRA was 20.5 BEFORE Grant got ruled out so it makes zero sense to me that we are getting 21.5 here as Grant leads the team with a very high 26.9% usage. Since Bey has spent some time in different line-ups this season before settling in with the starters, we have a nice 77 minute sample of him on the court without Grant, Rose, Delon & Griffin and he’s been awesome with an 18.6/9.3/3.3 per 36 line. He’s set for big minutes here in a really good matchup for him as the Pelicans give up the second most wide open 3’s in the league, which is where he does most of his damage so expect him to be really aggressive shooting the ball today. It wouldn’t at all surprise to see him stay out there in garbage time either and theres so much upside here with the Pistons missing their top scorer.

• Saddiq Bey over 21.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.83 with B365 – 1.4 units
• Saddiq Bey over 29.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 4.00 with TAB – 0.3 units

Spurs vs Thunder 12:10pm AEST

Spurs are short-handed today with only 10 active players, but it’s mainly in the back court where they are thin. Jakob has done an awesome job for the Spurs since LA went down and it really isn’t a hot take to say Jakob is a better player than Aldridge right now. The defensive splits are crazy with the Spurs being 15.1 PP100P better with Jakob on the floor and 13.9 PP100P worse with Aldridge (Jakob is +2.7 offensively while Aldridge is only +0.5). There is no reason for them to rush Aldridge back when they have Jakob playing so well. It’s a tough matchup for centres, with OKC allowing the 10th fewest points to the position. He does see a nice 3.6% usage bump in 95 minutes without White and Demar (just used these two to get a bigger sample), but it still only puts him at 18.1 points per 36 minutes. I can’t really see him playing more than 24 here which was around his average for his last 4 games before he got hurt.

*Spurs have just released the line-ups and it looks like Aldridge is coming off the bench which is a little bit of a surprise but clearly Pop has been happy with Jakob’s strong play. He has no minute limit, but coming off the bench it’s really really hard to see him playing upwards of 24 minutes. He has had some absolute stinkers this season with multiple single figure scoring efforts and may be rusty coming back.

• LaMarcus Aldridge UNDER 15.5 Points @ 1.85 with Sportsbet – 1.5 units
• LaMarcus Aldridge UNDER 10.5 Points @ 4.33 with Sportsbet – 0.2 units

As mentioned above, this Spurs back-court is super super thin. It sets up for Lonnie to play huge minutes as he can play both the 2 and the 3. He gets a team high 5.1% usage bump in his 162 minutes without Demar and Derrick on the floor posting a really nice 18.8/3.5/2.9 per 36 line. For those who have been around all season, you’ll remember Lonnie missing a shot to cash 25+ at 19/1 earlier in the season against this same OKC team in a similar setup with Demar out. He played 35 minutes there finishing with 24 points. He can be a little hit and miss but if his shot is falling he can get super aggressive attacking the rim which really bring his upside into play. I do expect he’ll come out aggressive as someone has to take shots here and Dejounte will likely see Dort. Skewing a bit more alts here as he is far from consistent.

• Lonnie Walker over 13.5 Points @ 2.00 with Topsport – 0.8 units
• Lonnie Walker over 19.5 Points @ 5.00 with Sportsbet – 0.5 units
• Lonnie Walker over 24.5 Points @ 11.00 with TAB – 0.1 units

Staking Plan – 6.6 units out

• Karl Anthony Towns over 4.5 Assists @ 1.88 with Topsport – 1.5 units
• Karl Anthony Towns over 7.5 Assists @ 6.50 with TAB – 0.3 units
• Karl Anthony Towns 10+ Assists / 10+ Rebounds @ 18.50 with Sportsbet SGM – 0.2 units
• Zion Williamson over 5.5 Assists @ 4.00 with Sportsbet – 0.3 units
• Saddiq Bey over 21.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.83 with B365 – 1.4 units
• Saddiq Bey over 29.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 4.00 with TAB – 0.3 units
• LaMarcus Aldridge UNDER 15.5 Points @ 1.85 with Sportsbet – 1.5 units
• LaMarcus Aldridge UNDER 10.5 Points @ 4.33 with Sportsbet – 0.2 units
• Lonnie Walker over 13.5 Points @ 2.00 with Topsport – 0.8 units
• Lonnie Walker over 19.5 Points @ 5.00 with Sportsbet – 0.5 units
• Lonnie Walker over 24.5 Points @ 11.00 with TAB – 0.1 units
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