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Stuffed up today. Thought Denver would win and couldn’t capitalise, taking an unpleasant loss on the day.

Season Results:

• 375 Wins / 254 Losses
• +113.10 Units Of Profit
• 17.06% ROI

Heat vs Celtics 10:30am AEST

Impossible not to come back to Bam here. He’s playing so well and Boston really don’t have anyone that can guard him. His usage has sky-rocketed up to 23.2% in this series which is great to see. He creates nightmares defensively for Boston as Spo does a great job of keeping at least 3 shooters out on the floor with him at all times, so if they try and contain him he can kick it out which is a dangerous strategy against the best 3 point shooting team in the league. He’s scored 18,21,27 through the 3 games, with 9 dimes in G1 but has managed just 5 over his last 2. Massive room for upside here as those 5 dimes have come from a huge 23 potentials. It was only brief, but Boston went to their 5 best player line-up in G3 with Hayward back in the mix, a line-up which Bam should be able to dominate giving him a bit more scoring upside too.

I don’t have a strong view on who I think will win this one, but at the price I’m happy to include Miami in a few of the alts over these bets. A few interesting stats really favouring Miami over the first 3 games;

Open or wide open field goals;

Miami – 128

Boston – 107

Open or wide open 3 pointers;

Miami – 94

Boston – 78

Potential assists;

Miami – 163

Boston – 112

Shots after 3+ dribbles;

Miami – 59

Boston – 89

Catch and shoot;

Miami – 94

Boston – 62

• Bam over 20.5 Points + Assists @ 1.80 with B365 – 1.5 units
• Bam over 19.5 Points / over 5.5 Assists @ 5.50 with Sportsbet SGM – 0.3 units
• Bam 20+ Points / Miami win @ 6.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units
• Bam 6+ Assists / Miami win @ 6.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units

Another one I’m extremely keen on here. Ticks a lot of boxes as is before adding in an extra element which I’ll get to. He’s locked into 32+ minutes (with upside of 39 if he’s hot like in G1) and he’s clearly been told to shoot the ball as he’s managed to get up 29 3 pointers over the first 3 games. Knocked them down in G1 with 5 en route to 22 points, but cooled off over the last 2 going 5-20. He’s getting good looks and is just 1-8 on wide open 3s and I think the extra days off might help him reset. I mentioned before last game how he would be involved a lot more offensively if they continue to put Kemba on him, and although he did an OK job, he wasn’t very aggressive as a scorer as he looked to pass once he had created the advantage and someone came to help a little. Didn’t get up any shots against him but drew a couple of FT’s and had 5 dimes. He was pretty vocal after training the day before yesterday, saying there will be big changes if they decide to guard him with Kemba again so have to think it means they’ll be running some stuff through him in that scenario, which will result in some potential dimes or shot attempts.

• Crowder over 14.5 Points + Assists @ 1.95 with Sportsbet – 1.5 units
• Crowder over 3.5 Assists @ 4.02 with TopSport – 0.2 units
• Crowder over 17.5 Points @ 5.00 with Sportsbet – 0.2 units
• Crowder 15+ Points / Miami win @ 5.50 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units

Was a bit unsure the best way to play these – feel free to just deploy 2u (my max) on the base bet if you prefer. 

Staking Plan

• Bam over 20.5 Points + Assists @ 1.80 with B365 – 1.5 units
• Bam over 19.5 Points / over 4.5 Assists @ 4.20 with Sportsbet SGM – 0.3 units
• Bam 20+ Points / Miami win @ 6.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units
• Bam 6+ Assists / Miami win @ 6.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units
• Crowder over 14.5 Points + Assists @ 1.95 with Sportsbet – 1.5 units
• Crowder over 3.5 Assists @ 4.02 with TopSport – 0.2 units
• Crowder over 17.5 Points @ 5.00 with Sportsbet – 0.2 units
• Crowder 15+ Points / Miami win @ 5.50 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units
• Click Here To Get Top Odds With TopSport