Our Professional NBA Tips, Analysis & Staking Plan 24/2

Season Results:

• 180 Wins / 363 Losses
• 92.58 Units Profit
• +32.22% ROI
• View Results Spreadsheets

Magic vs Pistons 11:10am AEST

He was OK in a tough matchup against the Knicks returning from injury, but has really picked things up over his last couple with back to back 28+ points game averaging 28.5/5.5/6.5. He’s looked extremely active and aggressive on both ends and with MCW (17.8% USG) starting at the point now instead of Cole (21.5%), there’s more shots to go around. Josh Jackson will likely move into the starting line-up here and he is a better defender than Ellington, but this line looks low considering Fournier’s production in all 3 categories. He’s been a tiny bit lucky with the dimes over his last couple with 13 assists from 20 potentials but the potentials number is still strong and they should show up again.

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• Evan Fournier over 27.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.88 with Sportsbet – 1.2 units
• Evan Fournier over 34.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 4.50 with TAB – 0.3 units

His minutes are trending down in a hurry with so many healthy front-court bodies available for the Magic. Clifford had been using Birch at the 4 a ton and to his credit he had been quite good there but he got moved back to the bench last game against the Pistons and was used purely as Vooch’s back-up. Vooch has really amped up his minutes lately consistently playing high 30’s and he should see that mark again in what should be a pretty competitive game leaving just 10-12 minutes for Vooch. He’s not very productive for a big man, at just 0.62 PRA per minute so if we give him 12 minutes that still comes in way under at just 7.44. Feel pretty good about him not playing any 4 here with Clark, Ennis, Aminu, Okeke all available.

• Khem Birch UNDER 9.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.83 with B365 – 1.3 units

Cavs vs Hawks 11:10am AEST

He’s should crush this line if he plays close to 41 minutes again. His mins have slowly been trending up (24,28,29,33,41) so maybe it was a conditioning. Either way it was extremely encouraging to see and he looked awesome going 11-11 from the field en route to a monster 26/17/2 line. Although Capela is a good rim protector, he’s struggled defending the PNR lately and the Hawks have been rising up the ranks quickly in opponent roll man scoring. They now give up the 6th most PPP at 1.18 so it could be a nice spot for both Garland and Allen here. While Capela is on the court they have been pretty good in stopping put backs, so we may need to rely on Sexton and Garland getting him the ball (which is a bit of a scary thought), but this line is just too low covering it in 5 of his last 6 games. Adding the dimes in as he can be sneaky in that category and got unlucky last game with just 2 from 7 potentials. Have to have a little on his PRA upside incase they unleash him for big minutes again.

• Jarrett Allen over 17.5 Points + Assists @ 1.80 with B365 – 1.2 units
• Jarrett Allen over 39.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 5.00 with TAB – 0.2 units

Celtics vs Mavs 11:40am AEST

Had a little bit on him last game and jeez was is frustrating watching him go 5-21 from the field and 1-12 from 3 only finishing just short of his line. The role is awesome with a 26.4% usage over his last couple and gets a perfect matchup today against the Mavs on a b2b who give up the 4th most points to PNR ball handlers at 0.97 PPP. Kemba is 4th in the league finishing a crazy 53.3% of his possessions in PNR so this really really sets up well for him if his jump shot can get going. He’s had a 25 point and a 28 point game in his last 4 so the upside is certainly there.

• Kemba Walker over 23.5 Points + Assists @ 1.90 with Sportsbet – 1.2 units
• Kemba Walker over 24.5 Points @ 4.30 with TAB – 0.2 units

Kings vs Nets 11:40am AEST

This game comes with a little bit of blowout risk as the Kings have really been struggling of late but Fox has been doing his part, covering this line in 6 straight games albeit in limited minutes for some of them. The potentials have really spiked over the last couple up at 18.5 and today gets a good matchup against the Nets. To their credit, they have really locked in on the defensive end the last few games bringing their 2 week rank to 17th but it’s still bad and it might be a little let down spot after 3 big wins against the Suns, Clippers and Lakers. The Kings were on a b2b when they met last week and they were missing Holmes so we could see some improvement from them here. Was 261 points combined scored in that game so let’s hope this one stays close. Surprised this line hasn’t been moved to 8.5 yet.

• De’Aaron Fox over 7.5 Assists @ 1.81 with Topsport – 1.5 units

Wolves vs Bucks 12:10pm AEST

He’s been pretty matchup dependant over the last little while since Jrue has been out but it has really helped to keep his line more than reasonable. He got completely schemed out of the games against Toronto with Nurse and the Raptors doubling him at every chance which explains the 11,13 point games in his game log. He broke out against the Kings in an awesome matchup and gets another great one here against the Wolves and their 24th ranked defence. Bucks haven’t been playing well enough to blow teams out and Wolves have been better with KAT back so I’m not too concerned about the 10.5 point spread here. Plus Saunders was the worst coach in the NBA and it’s hard to imagine Finch could be worse. I’m not sure who Wolves plan on using to guard him but he should torch both Edwards and Beasley who have been awful defensively this season.

• Khris Middleton over 21.5 Points @ 1.93 with Sportsbet – 1.3 units
• Khris Middleton over 29.5 Points @ 6.00 with Sportsbet – 0.2 units

Going to be watching very closely to see what changes Finch makes but as a Nurse disciple, we may see him really tighten up the rotation (saw Nate do that in Indiana and Nurse has done that his entire stint in Toronto). Rubio could be the guy to benefit as he’s been in a little time-share with our man McLoughlin. Rubio can really rack up stats when he’s out there so having a little bit on his upside incase we see him push into the mid 30s. Finch has also already come out and said very publicly they need to feature KAT more and get him more touches in the post. He’s only been playing in the 31-32 minute range which I’ve found really weird as he is by far their best player so it makes sense he’ll get a bump up to the mid 30s too. It’s a good matchup for both of them against the Bucks team who have the 20th ranked defence over the last 2 weeks and play at the leagues 5th fastest pace.

• Karl Anthony Towns over 36.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.85 with TAB – 1 unit
• Karl Anthony Towns over 44.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 4.50 with TAB – 0.2 units
• Karl Anthony Towns over 49.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 9.50 with TAB – 0.1 units
• Ricky Rubio over 9.5 Assists @ 4.75 with TAB – 0.2 units
• Ricky Rubio over 11.5 Assists @ 12.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units
• Ricky Rubio over 14.5 Points @ 5.00 with Sportsbet – 0.2 units

For the ESPN arvo game, I like Jamal but his line is getting really high so everything needs to go right for him today. Dame should bounce back here. Think it will be harder for Blazers to go small against Jokic which should mean more minutes for Kanter, and he’s always quite productive in a good matchup. It could be a really fun high scoring game but again not getting a big edge on any of these plays (close to playing Kanter) so just getting some exposure through a multi, we’re due.

• Lillard over 31.5 Points / Lillard over 8.5 Assists / Kanter over 26.5 PRA / Jamal over 24.5 Points @ 9.00 with B365 – 0.3 units

Staking Plan – 10.7 units out

• Evan Fournier over 27.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.88 with Sportsbet – 1.2 units
• Evan Fournier over 34.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 4.50 with TAB – 0.3 units
• Khem Birch UNDER 9.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.83 with B365 – 1.3 units
• Jarrett Allen over 17.5 Points + Assists @ 1.80 with B365 – 1.2 units
• Jarrett Allen over 39.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 5.00 with TAB – 0.2 units
• Kemba Walker over 23.5 Points + Assists @ 1.90 with Sportsbet – 1.2 units
• Kemba Walker over 24.5 Points @ 4.30 with TAB – 0.2 units
• De’Aaron Fox over 7.5 Assists @ 1.81 with Topsport – 1.5 units
• Khris Middleton over 21.5 Points @ 1.93 with Sportsbet – 1.3 units
• Khris Middleton over 29.5 Points @ 6.00 with Sportsbet – 0.2 units
• Karl Anthony Towns over 36.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.85 with TAB – 1 unit
• Karl Anthony Towns over 44.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 4.50 with TAB – 0.2 units
• Karl Anthony Towns over 49.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 9.50 with TAB – 0.1 units
• Ricky Rubio over 9.5 Assists @ 4.75 with TAB – 0.2 units
• Ricky Rubio over 11.5 Assists @ 12.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units
• Ricky Rubio over 14.5 Points @ 5.00 with Sportsbet – 0.2 units
• Lillard over 31.5 Points / Lillard over 8.5 Assists / Kanter over 26.5 PRA / Jamal over 24.5 Points @ 9.00 with B365 – 0.3 units
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