Our Professional NBA Tips, Analysis & Staking Plan 25/4

Results:

• 83.26 Units Profit
• 16.1% ROI

• View Results Spreadsheets

Sorry about MIA yesterday, was up all night with a bug of some sorts Friday night could barely look at my phone.

Pistons vs Pacers 9:10am AEST

The 20.5 PRA line for Plumlee is so tempting but he can only really be an upside bet here as it’s just hard to read this Pistons rotation. Stewart has really been taking the lions share of minutes, but the 32 Plumlee played in his last game (36 PRA) shows the upside is there. Matchup is unreal as the Pacers are without their big men again so he should be in for a productive night on a per minute basis, it’s just hard to be sure about the minutes and there is just such a low floor (played just 16 minutes 2 back against the Wiz).

• Mason Plumlee over 29.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 7.00 with TAB – 0.2 units

Should be set for big minutes again here, coming off 29.5%, 34% and 34.5% usage games. The sample is growing now for Brogdon without Sabonis and Turner and the numbers are great, at 24.2/9.2/6.1 per 36 in 113 minutes with a 5.4% usage bump up to 31.8%. The wild part of this is that he’s managed to get to 24.2 points on just 33.3% shooting! He’s a career 46.7% and is 45.6% on the season so there’s a stack of scoring upside here from a number that already clears this line comfortably. Like the matchup against the Pistons who have the 25th ranked defence over the last 2 weeks.

• Malcolm Brogdon over 35.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.85 with TAB – 1.1 units
• Malcolm Brogdon over 29.5 Points @ 4.50 with TAB – 0.2 units

Really wanted a Jakkar line here but bookies have been so slack with putting up lines for role players the last few weeks. It’s where the biggest edges are and it’s getting quite frustrating

Jazz vs Timberwolves 11:10am AEST

He’s been rolling, with 3 straight 20 point games since Donny went down and the stats are up across the board. He’s been at 6.0 minutes of touch time (up from 3.3), 42 front court touches (up from 29), 88 touches (up from 56.1), and most importantly is at 19.5% usage (up from 15.8%). It’s an awesome matchup for him against the Wolves and their comedically bad defence ranked 30th over the last 2 weeks with a ridiculous 121.8 D rating. Blowout is obviously a bit of a concern here, but I was surprised to see Ingles start the 4th quarter against the Rockets 3 days ago, despite them being up 28 points heading into the 4th. Wolves offence has been much better of late so it’s not out of the question they can hang around here.

• Joe Ingles over 14.5 Points @ 1.76 with B365 – 1 unit
• Joe Ingles over 19.5 Points @ 3.60 with Sportsbet – 0.3 units
• Joe Ingles over 24.5 Points @ 11.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units

Staking Plan – 2.9 units out

• Mason Plumlee over 29.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 7.00 with TAB – 0.2 units
• Malcolm Brogdon over 35.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.85 with TAB – 1.1 units
• Malcolm Brogdon over 29.5 Points @ 4.50 with TAB – 0.2 units
• Joe Ingles over 14.5 Points @ 1.76 with B365 – 1 unit
• Joe Ingles over 19.5 Points @ 3.60 with Sportsbet – 0.3 units
• Joe Ingles over 24.5 Points @ 11.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units
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