Our Professional NBA Tips, Analysis & Staking Plan 23/1

Dec 30, 2019; Chicago, Illinois, USA; Chicago Bulls forward Lauri Markkanen (24) reacts after scoring against the Milwaukee Bucks during the first half at United Center. Mandatory Credit: Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports

Season Results:

• 80 Wins / 121 Losses
• 24.44 Units Profit
• +20.13% ROI
• View Results Spreadsheets

Bulls vs Hornets 11:10am AEST

Huge huge spot for Lauri today. I probably would have taken him anyway, but without WCJ there now it makes me even more keen. Countless amount of times in the NBA we see players move from the 4 to the 5 and have a massive production increase, but last season Lauri was a strange exception getting just a 1.5% usage bump and posting a 19.9/8.6/2 line in 301 minutes at centre. Smaller sample this season with 64 minutes at the 5, but he has absolutely crushed with a 34/8/1 line and 27.5% usage. With the Hornets going small in the second unit through PJW at the 5, there should be ample opportunity for him to get minutes there today. Would love to see Lauri get inside more as he’s still quite reliant on his jumper, but he’s been shooting the ball well so hopefully he can get going early. So much upside with him today with Hornets giving up the 4th most points to PF and give up the second most wide open 3’s in the league.

• Lauri Markkanan over 24.5 Points + Rebounds @ 1.80 with B365 – 1.4 units
• Lauri Markkanan over 29.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 2.65 with TAB – 0.3 units
• Lauri Markkanan over 34.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 5.5 with TAB – 0.2 units
• Lauri Markkanan over 39.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 13.00 with TAB – 0.1 units

His strong play continues and he’s now hit the 30 minute mark in 5 straight games and is averaging 17.0/9.0/3.0 in 33.3 minutes across that stretch. Little bit of a shame that Zeller is back in here as I’m not too sure how many minutes that means PJ will get at the 5 where he has smashed postings a 19.2/6.9/2.4 line, but against the Bulls who will be using Lauri at the 5 it makes a ton of sense for them to run with PJ but it probably limits his upside a little.

• PJ Washington over 24.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.90 with TAB – 1 unit

I would have loved to attack a guard from the Hornets here as the Bulls have been getting torched by PNR ball handlers, but unfortunately they don’t really have the personnel. One of the guards will have a big game. Specking a couple of them.

• Gordon Hayward over 29.5 Points @ 9.50 with Sportsbet – 0.2 units
• Terry Rozier over 24.5 Points @ 4.50 with TAB – 0.2 units
• Terry Rozier over 29.5 Points @ 13.00 with TAB – 0.1 units
• Devonte Graham over 19.5 Points @ 4.00 with Sportsbet – 0.2 units
• Devonte Graham over 24.5 Points @ 13.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units

So much to like in this game, have put together a bet builder using B365.

• Lauri over 24.5 PR / PJ over 24.5 PRA / Hayward over 19.5 Pts / Devonte over 21.5 PA @ 12.00 – 0.2 units

Rockets vs Pistons 11:10am AEST

Was close to taking him last game but unfortunately left him. Had another strong game though and looks to have cemented his spot as a starter playing 26, 27, 33 (5 min in OT) over his last 3. He’s played 20+ minutes 6 times this season, covering this line in 5 of them (9 in other). They look to be running a ton of stuff to get him open, and I’d expect that to continue here. Line has bumped up a little off the back of averaging 20.0 points over his last 2, but I still like the play and if he gets hot there’s definitely some 3 point upside.

• Wayne Ellington over 10.5 Points @ 1.88 with Topsport – 1 unit
• Wayne Ellington over 4.5 3 Pointers @ 8.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units

Not too sure what the plan is minutes wise with Cousins today, but we need to have something on him. His line’s are pretty high across the board which carry way too much risk for my liking, but I think there is some value with his 3 pointers. He hasn’t been very good in the paint this season, making just 32% of his shots at the rim but he’s been happy to fire away 3’s taking 8.1 per 36 mins. Hasn’t really been hitting them at just 25% but he’s shown in the past he can get hot so having something on.

• Demarcus Cousins over 2.5 3 Pointers @ 5.50 with TAB – 0.3 units
• Demarcus Cousins over 3.5 3 Pointers @ 13.00 with TAB – 0.1 units

Pacers vs Magic 11:10am AEST

Just keeps on crushing it and had a massive 20 minutes without a PG next to him last game. Fournier coming back has bumped Bone from the rotation which is great news for AG. He had 15 potentials last game to go along with 6.2 minutes of possession. Much more overlap with Vooch which is great as they have some nice PNR chemistry.

• Aaron Gordon over 4.5 Assists @ 1.73 with Topsport – 1.3 units

Mavericks vs Spurs 12:40pm AEST

This is such an awesome spot for him, but it is also a great spot for Luka so I am a little concerned Luka just goes off on high usage limiting KP so we will save a bit for that too. Everything is trending up for KP, with the most notable stat his season high 29 minutes playing at centre last game (only played 32). He’s looked great since returning with 23 & 27 pts in his last couple and should be able to continue that today in a great matchup for him. The Spurs allow the most shots at rim to both forwards and guards and they really don’t have anyone who can guard him. LA is too slow and KJ is too small so either way this sets up beautifully for him and we are still getting an attractive line. Not sure there is too much upside with him as long as Luka is there.

• Kristaps Porzingis over 20.5 Points @ 1.80 with B365 – 1.3 units
• Kristaps Porzingis over 24.5 Points & Mavs win @ 5.50 with Sportsbet – 0.2 units
• Luka Doncic over 34.5 Points @ 4.50 with Sportsbet – 0.3 units

Suns vs Nuggets 2:10pm AEST

Came through for us in a big way last game and am happy to hear a few of you took the 45+ at some juicy odds! Once again, everything post game was all about Ayton and one of the most intriguing messages for me was how much off court work he’s put in so he can play 36 minutes which is where Monty said he wants him. It’s an interesting spot for him today, as the Nuggets just leave Jokic in the paint on defence which should make it tough for roll men, but they are still allowing the 3rd most PPP. They are also allowing the highest FG% to opposing centres at the rim at a stupid 70% which is awesome for Ayton who takes 54% of his shots at the rim.

• Deandre Ayton over 26.5 Points + Rebounds @ 1.80 with B365 – 1.3 units
• Deandre Ayton over 34.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 3.70 with TAB – 0.3 units
• Deandre Ayton over 39.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 8.00 with TAB – 0.1 units
• Deandre Ayton over 44.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 21.00 with TAB – 0.1 units

Staking Plan – 10.4 units out

• Lauri Markkanan over 24.5 Points + Rebounds @ 1.80 with B365 – 1.4 units
• Lauri Markkanan over 29.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 2.65 with TAB – 0.3 units
• Lauri Markkanan over 34.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 5.5 with TAB – 0.2 units
• Lauri Markkanan over 39.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 13.00 with TAB – 0.1 units
• PJ Washington over 24.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.90 with TAB – 1 unit
• Gordon Hayward over 29.5 Points @ 9.50 with Sportsbet – 0.2 units
• Terry Rozier over 24.5 Points @ 4.50 with TAB – 0.2 units
• Terry Rozier over 29.5 Points @ 13.00 with TAB – 0.1 units
• Devonte Graham over 19.5 Points @ 4.00 with Sportsbet – 0.2 units
• Devonte Graham over 24.5 Points @ 13.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units
• Lauri over 24.5 PR / PJ over 24.5 PRA / Hayward over 19.5 Pts / Devonte over 21.5 PA @ 12.00 – 0.2 units
• Aaron Gordon over 4.5 Assists @ 1.73 with Topsport – 1.3 units
• Wayne Ellington over 10.5 Points @ 1.88 with Topsport – 1 unit
• Wayne Ellington over 4.5 3 Pointers @ 8.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units
• Demarcus Cousins over 2.5 3 Pointers @ 5.50 with TAB – 0.3 units
• Demarcus Cousins over 3.5 3 Pointers @ 13.00 with TAB – 0.1 units
• Kristaps Porzingis over 20.5 Points @ 1.80 with B365 – 1.3 units
• Kristaps Porzingis over 24.5 Points & Mavs win @ 5.50 with Sportsbet – 0.2 units
• Luka Doncic over 34.5 Points @ 4.50 with Sportsbet – 0.3 units
• Deandre Ayton over 26.5 Points + Rebounds @ 1.80 with B365 – 1.3 units
• Deandre Ayton over 34.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 3.70 with TAB – 0.3 units
• Deandre Ayton over 39.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 8.00 with TAB – 0.1 units
• Deandre Ayton over 44.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 21.00 with TAB – 0.1 units
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