Our Professional NBA Tips, Analysis & Staking Plan 22/5

MEMPHIS, TN - DECEMBER 23: Jonas Valanciunas #17 of the Memphis Grizzlies reacts during the first quarter against the San Antonio Spurs at FedExForum on December 23, 2020 in Memphis, Tennessee. San Antonio defeats Memphis 131-119. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Brett Carlsen/Getty Images)

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• 16.75% ROI

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Warriors vs Grizzlies 11:00am AEST

“I think what we saw in that game is a pretty good representation of how the minutes are going to shake out here, with some potential upside on the main guys as it’s an elimination game. JV played a huge 35:30 and I really think he’ll play around that mark again here. He’s having the best season of his career and they just really need his offence with them being so limited elsewhere. It’s a bit of a numbers play here, as he averages 17.1/12.5/1.8 on the season in just 28 minutes, but at the per 36 rate it looks a lot healthier at 21.7/15.9/2.3.”

Write up against the Spurs the other day and am more than happy to come back to him here. He’s had 45/46 PR his last two including a huge 29/16 game against the Dubs just last week. He has been their best player and it was just so hard for this team to score when he wasn’t on the court against the Spurs as he ended up +26 in a 4 point win. He looked completely gassed but he did manage to get up to 37:32 minutes but it’s hard to see him playing much more than that here even though I’m sure Jenkins would like to get him out there for 40. Strange things happen in elimination games so happy to trust JV’s offence as he gets so many good looks at the rim and doesn’t rely on the jumper too much. Going to be a classic defence vs offence situation here as Warriors are going to just continuously attack him on the defensive end so to make him viable he’s going to need to be scoring.

Playing JV big minutes really plays into the Warriors hands as I’ve just mentioned it gives them a nice theory every offensive possession as they’ll likely just be attacking him like they did the other day where JV was -13 despite his huge production. Spurs didn’t really go at him too much and they play a completely different style to the Warriors. It was pretty crazy going back and watching both of their previous games, as the Warriors got absolutely nothing given to them from a locked in Lakers D, had several questionable calls go against them, were extremely sloppy with the ball and still somehow almost came away with the win AT staples. Grizz on the other hand versed a pretty stink Spurs team at home who shot just 35% from the field and only managed to scrape out a 4 point win. Warriors are playing like legit West contenders right now and are the far better team so despite a big JV game they shouldn’t have too many issues here back at Chase.

• Jonas Valanciunas over 34.5 Points + Rebounds / Warriors Win  @ 2.90 with B365 – 1 unit

Staking Plan – 1 unit out

• Jonas Valanciunas over 34.5 Points + Rebounds / Warriors Win  @ 2.90 with B365 – 1 unit

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