Our Professional NBA Tips, Analysis & Staking Plan 20/5

Results:

• 89.16 Units Profit
• 16.75% ROI

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Grizzlies vs Spurs 9:30am AEST

A few different angles in this game but I’m quite keen on JV after obliterating the Warriors 2 days ago. I think what we saw in that game is a pretty good representation of how the minutes are going to shake out here, with some potential upside on the main guys as it’s an elimination game. JV played a huge 35:30 and I really think he’ll play around that mark again here. He’s having the best season of his career and they just really need his offence with them being so limited elsewhere. It’s a bit of a numbers play here, as he averages 17.1/12.5/1.8 on the season in just 28 minutes, but at the per 36 rate it looks a lot healthier at 21.7/15.9/2.3. Getting a number far below that, and he gets a positive matchup against the Spurs who allow a ton of shots at the rim, resulting in the 5th most points to centres and the 11th most rebounds over the last month. Poeltl gets a bit block happy which results in a bunch of put-back opportunities. They give up the 11th most points per opponent miss. Not much of a sample this season, but going back to last year he had an awesome per 36 line of 26/19/5 with Jakob defending him (35 minute sample).

• Jonas Valanciunus over 32.5 Points + Rebounds @ 1.80 with B365 – 1.2 units
• Jonas Valanciunus over 24.5 Points @ 5.00 with Sportsbet – 0.2 units

On the flip side of JV, we are likely going to see Jakob get his minutes matched with him which makes his lines look pretty low, but he’s in some serious risk of foul trouble so it’s impossible to have much on him. He’s got a nice 11.6/10.7 per 36 line so should have a crack at a double double here IF he can stay out of foul trouble. Bit of a hedge as if he does stay out of foul trouble it probably means our bet on JV isn’t tracking too nicely.

• Jakob Poeltl Double Double @ 4.50 with B365 – 0.2 units

Dillon Brooks. I remember writing up a bet for PG against the Grizzlies earlier this season and mentioning something along the lines of Brooks not being a good defender, just extremely pesky. Maybe I hadn’t watched enough of him but he absolutely shut PG down that day and has continued to be awesome this season as his ball denial is something else. Does not take a possession off so Demar will not be getting anything easy here. Brooks guarded him for 57.4 partial possessions on the season (3rd most from any defender) and Demar only put up 15 points in that span. For comparison DFS had him for 56.4 partial possessions and Demar had 22 points, and Jrue guarded him for 44.7 PP where Demar had 15 points. I really think Grizzlies will win this one and Demar staying under his points total will be a big part of that. Demar is one of the best in the league at drawing fouls so I’m a little scared of some early Brooks foul trouble which would open things right up for him, so keeping the bet a bit smaller.

• Demar DeRozan UNDER 24.5 Points / Grizzlies win @ 2.75 with Sportsbet – 0.5 units

Just another quick note. A low usage Demar game would obviously mean someone else has to do the heavy lifting on offence, and that’ll likely be Dejounte who will see a lot of Ja on him. He could feast.

Lakers vs Warriors 12:00pm AEST

He’s just balling right now covering this comfortably in 4 straight games averaging 13.0/7.3/10.8 (31.1 PRA). Over the last 15 games, he’s at 9.1/9.6/10.5 (29.2 PRA) per 36 and you can lock him in for that, while he probably ends up playing around 38 in such an important game. I’m not sure what’s happened, but he just looks completely different over the last few weeks. He’s looked much more athletic which has really helped his offence as he’s been able to get to the rim and finish around the rim easier. It’s obviously not the best matchup against a strong Lakers defence, but Draymond is not going to leave anything out there and this line is more than reasonable now that he’s started looking for his offence again and he has legit 3 category upside. For someone who is involved in almost every possession both offensively and defensively who’s going to be playing 38 minutes, I’m happy to take this line. Without Wiseman and Kelly on the court clogging things up he’s seen a nice bump in his scoring on the season, up to 9.6 points per 36 (6.2 with Wiseman on, 7.2 with Oubre on, 6.6 with them both on). The per 36 line without them is awesome at 9.6/7.5/10.5 and as mentioned he’ll be playing more than 36. Going to wait and hope we get a better number on the Warriors tomorrow as I’m keen as to back them against this Lakers team still figuring themselves out but having a little bit on the player performance doubles now.

• Draymond Green over 25.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.93 with Topsport – 1 unit
• Draymond Green Double Double / Warriors win @ 7.00 with Sportsbet – 0.2 units
• Draymond Green Triple Double / Warriors win @ 23.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units

Staking Plan – 3.4 units out

• Jonas Valanciunus over 32.5 Points + Rebounds @ 1.80 with B365 – 1.2 units
• Jonas Valanciunus over 24.5 Points @ 5.00 with Sportsbet – 0.2 units
• Jakob Poeltl Double Double @ 4.50 with B365 – 0.2 units
• Demar DeRozan UNDER 24.5 Points / Grizzlies win @ 2.75 with Sportsbet – 0.5 units
• Draymond Green over 25.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.93 with Topsport – 1 unit
• Draymond Green Double Double / Warriors win @ 7.00 with Sportsbet – 0.2 units
• Draymond Green Triple Double / Warriors win @ 23.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units

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