Our Professional NBA Tips, Analysis & Staking Plan 20/2

Season Results:

• 180 Wins / 363 Losses
• 92.58 Units Profit
• +32.22% ROI
• View Results Spreadsheets

Warriors vs Magic 11:10am AEST

Came back into the mix for the Magic at the perfect time when they’ve been extremely short on ball handlers and he’s looked quite good. He’s played 3 games now averaging 13.7/3.7/6.0 in 28.8 minutes and the advanced stats have been extremely promising. He’s averaging 15.7 drives per game which would be 12th in the league (everyone above playing 30+ minutes), creating 12.3 potentials, and has 7.0 minutes of touch time which would be 10th in the league (everyone above playing 31+ minutes). I’ve harped on before about how much more effective Vooch is as a catch and shoot guy, and it’s clear they are trying to get him as many shots as possible so it creates a ton of potentials for all the Magic ball handlers. They seemingly already have quite a nice rapport with MCW connecting with Vooch for 7 dimes over the last 3 games. I had a bit on his line at 4+ last game (didn’t post as the odds came up really close to tip after Fournier was a late in), so was watching closely and there were a bunch of easy ones missed. Warriors play at the second fastest pace so hopefully we can pick up a couple of easy ones in transition. Maybe breaks through the 30 minute mark today, as he should have an easier time scoring.

• Michael Carter-Williams over 4.5 Assists @ 2.40 with B365 – 1.5 units
• Michael Carter-Williams over 6.5 Assists @ 6.50 with B365 – 0.2 units

This bets been profitable for us, and I don’t see a reason to jump off now.

• Draymond Green over 9.5 Assists / Warriors -2.5 @ 2.80 with B365 – 1 unit

Nuggets vs Cavs 11:10am AEST

The Cavs front-court/wing rotation is extremely limited right now with Drummond (means Allen won’t play any 4 which opens up a few more minutes, Nance, Prince and Love all out so Cedi could be forced into big minutes again. He has been playing well over his last couple, and he probably deserves the extra playing time averaging 18.5/6.5/2.0 in 29.5 minutes over his last 2. Windler does come back today which may take away a few minutes so maybe the 35 minute upside isn’t there, but I’d still expect around 30. His stats this season without Drummond, Prince and Nance are awesome, posting a 19.4/6.6/3.8 per 36 line. Should enjoy this matchup against the 20th ranked Nuggets defence.

• Cedi Osman over 20.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.80 with B365 – 1.3 units

He had a decent game against the Wizards, but his jumper just still isn’t there going just 4-25 from deep over his last 4 games. He is too good to be this bad for so long and looking deeper into those shots he’s taking really tough ones, with just 4 of those 25 attempts coming while he’s wide open, 11 open and 10 with a defender tight. Cavs defence is awful with a dead last ranking and they’ve been getting lit up from everywhere, so maybe they blow a few coverages and MPJ gets some wide open shots to get him going. His lines have slowly been creeping down but Nuggets are still short-handed so the opportunity should be there for him.

• Michael Porter Jr over 19.5 Points @ 5.00 with Sportsbet – 0.2 units
• Michael Porter Jr over 24.5 Points @ 14.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units

Grizzlies vs Pistons 12:10pm AEST

Like this spot for Delon. Grant was going off last game with a career high points on a career high usage so it limited the opportunities for Delon a bit, but he was still solid finishing with a 12/4/4 line in 38 minutes. Before that, he had 30+ PRA in 4 of his last 5 since Derrick Rose got traded and he’s been thriving as the lone PG. He looks far more comfortable out there and gets a really good chance to continue rolling here against the Grizzlies who have been playing at an extremely fast pace and have the 27th ranked half court defence over the last month. Over the last 6, he’s creating 13.5 potentials per game (up from 9.4 on the season), driving 17.2! times per game (up from 10.7), and has 8.7!! minutes of touch time (up from 5.7). Obviously the extra minutes are a big reason for the advanced statistical output increases, but I’m just trying to highlight how good the role is for him right now. Should have Ja on him a bit which is positive.

• Delon Wright over 23.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.90 with TAB – 1.2 units
• Delon Wright over 29.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 4.25 with TAB – 0.3 units
• Delon Wright over 34.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 10.00 with TAB – 0.1 units

Timberwolves vs Raptors 1:10pm AEST

Touch time, drives, potentials, usage all came back up for Rubio last game, which means they all went down for Ant as he spent a ton of time just standing in the corners. They are very highly correlated, and I really don’t like this spot for Ant today as he will likely have OG guarding him. It was the game against the Raptors last week that started this little hot streak for Rubio, and now over his last 3 games he’s averaging 16.3 points and 8.6 dimes. They catch the Raptors on a b2b here, which is great news for them as the Raptors are 0-4 on b2b’s with a ridiculously bad 122.9 defensive rating. For reference the Kings have the worst defensive rating in the league for the season at 117.8. Has 15 pts in 2 of last 3.

• Ricky Rubio over 17.5 Points + Assists @ 1.84 with Sportsbet – 1.2 units
• Ricky Rubio over 14.5 Points @ 4.50 with TAB – 0.2 units

76ers vs Bulls 12:10pm AEST

Man this sets up so well for Seth. He was awesome last game against the Rockets and he should really be able to keep it rolling here against the Bulls. They have improved from earlier in the season, but the Bulls are still getting absolutely torched in the PNR by handlers giving up the most points per game at 25.7 (Clippers 22.6) and the most PPP at 1.03 (Mavs 0.97). Curry saw a huge boost in touch time last game right up to 5.2 from 2.1 on the season and expect him to be extremely busy today in a dream matchup.

• Seth Curry over 17.5 Points + Assists @ 1.80 with B365 – 1.5 units
• Seth Curry over 19.5 Points @ 4.40 with TAB – 0.4 units

Another huge beneficiary is Tobias. He was actually running a lot of point and Doc said they practiced with him running things a bunch in practice so he should be ready to go. His touch time was right up to 4.9 from 3.0 but it was the playmaking that stood out so much. Although he only finished with 5 dimes (maybe lucky as it’s kept this line reasonable), he created 13 potentials (easily a team high, Curry 6).

• Tobias Harris over 5.5 Assists @ 2.25 with B365 – 1 unit

Grizzlies vs Pistons 12:10pm AEST

He’s been balling lately covering this line in 6 of his last 7 averaging 17.9 points and 4 dimes in just 28.3 minutes. He’s a major beneficiary of Brooks not playing, getting a huge 4.8% usage bump posting a 17.8/8.5/4.8 per 36 line. Good matchup.

• Kyle Anderson over 16.5 Points + Assists @ 1.83 with B365 – 1 unit
• Kyle Anderson over 19.5 Points @ 6.00 with TAB – 0.1 units

Staking Plan – 11.3 units out

• Michael Carter-Williams over 4.5 Assists @ 2.40 with B365 – 1.5 units
• Michael Carter-Williams over 6.5 Assists @ 6.50 with B365 – 0.2 units
• Draymond Green over 9.5 Assists / Warriors -2.5 @ 2.80 with B365 – 1 unit
• Michael Porter Jr over 19.5 Points @ 5.00 with Sportsbet – 0.2 units
• Michael Porter Jr over 24.5 Points @ 14.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units
• Cedi Osman over 20.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.80 with B365 – 1.3 units
• Delon Wright over 23.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.90 with TAB – 1.2 units
• Delon Wright over 29.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 4.25 with TAB – 0.3 units
• Delon Wright over 34.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 10.00 with TAB – 0.1 units
• Ricky Rubio over 17.5 Points + Assists @ 1.84 with Sportsbet – 1.2 units
• Ricky Rubio over 14.5 Points @ 4.50 with TAB – 0.2 units
• Seth Curry over 17.5 Points + Assists @ 1.80 with B365 – 1.5 units
• Seth Curry over 19.5 Points @ 4.40 with TAB – 0.4 units
• Tobias Harris over 5.5 Assists @ 2.25 with B365 – 1 unit
• Kyle Anderson over 16.5 Points + Assists @ 1.83 with B365 – 1 unit
• Kyle Anderson over 19.5 Points @ 6.00 with TAB – 0.1 units
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