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WASHINGTON, DC - MARCH 06: Kevin Huerter #3 of the Atlanta Hawks looks on against the Washington Wizards during the first half at Capital One Arena on March 06, 2020 in Washington, DC. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Will Newton/Getty Images)

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Results:

• 101.60 Units Profit
• 15.8% ROI

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Hawks vs Bucks G5

On the Hawks side, no Trae is obviously the headline but we do have a sample from last game of how we can expect things to shake out. Huerter (4.5 minutes), Lou (4.3 minutes) and Bogdan (4.2) minutes shared the ball handling duties with the next highest Reddish coming in at 1.7 minutes. I’m not sure the bookies have adjusted fully to the new roles here as there’s still some nice value. Bogdan looked far healthier, en route to a post season high (and team high) 28.8% usage rate but it was remarkable he took 14 of his 19 shot attempts from behind the arc with 18 of his 20 points coming from 3. 14 3’s is a lot, but he had a nice variety of how he got them with 9 being catch and shoot and 5 being pull-ups. He was open or wide open on 13 of the 14 too.

• Bogdan Bogdanovic over 3.5 3 Pointers @ 2.25 with B365 – 1 unit
• Bogdan Bogdanovic over 19.5 Points / Hawks win @ 6.50 with Sportsbet – 0.2 units

Huerter the other huge winner here. His role was so good last game. His touch time went up from 2.0 to 4.5 minutes (team high), front court touches up from 24.9 to 37.0 (team high), potential assists up from 5.2 to 11.0, usage up from 15.8 to 19.0 and his drives up from 4.9 t0 9.0. He finished last game with an awesome 15/6/7 line despite going just 1-7 from 3 and missed out on a few minutes at the end. Have him projected for 39 minutes here and he should be able to repeat last game with a stack of upside with such a good role.

• Kevin Huerter over 22.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.83 with B365 – 1 unit
• Kevin Huerter over 7.5 Assists @ 9.50 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units

Have a pretty strong lean on the Hawks today but we’ve seen both Middleton and Jrue have huge games in this series alone so they are obviously both more than capable of carrying an offence, especially at home. I do want to have a bit of exposure to some Bucks unders bets though for a couple of reasons. I tweeted out the other day the on/off defensive splits with Trae in these playoffs and they are pretty remarkable. They have a ridiculously good 96.4 D Rating in a 200 minute sample with Trae off the court, and they were missing Reddish the majority of those minutes who is probably their best wing defender. that 96.4 rating jumps right the way up to 111.4 with Trae on. Pretty wild difference. On the Bucks side, they are missing out on Giannis’ consistent production which just completely drops the floor on the Bucks today. They certainly have the talent to put together a strong offensive game, but they have a pretty bad 100.3 O Rating with Giannis off the court in these playoffs (down from 109.8).

• Milwaukee Bucks UNDER 109.5 Points @ 1.86 with Topsport – 1 unit
• Milwaukee Bucks UNDER 99.5 Points @ 5.20 with Sportsbet – 0.2 units

Staking Plan – 3.5 units out

• Bogdan Bogdanovic over 3.5 3 Pointers @ 2.25 with B365 – 1 unit
• Bogdan Bogdanovic over 19.5 Points / Hawks win @ 6.50 with Sportsbet – 0.2 units
• Kevin Huerter over 22.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.83 with B365 – 1 unit
• Kevin Huerter over 7.5 Assists @ 9.50 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units
• Milwaukee Bucks UNDER 109.5 Points @ 1.86 with Topsport – 1 unit
• Milwaukee Bucks UNDER 99.5 Points @ 5.20 with Sportsbet – 0.2 units
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