Our Professional NBA Tips, Analysis & Staking Plan 2/3

Season Results:

• 203 Wins / 422 Losses
• 91.07 Units Profit
• +27.09% ROI
• View Results Spreadsheets

76ers vs Pacers 11:10am AEST

Missed that Lamb got ruled out while I was preparing to post this, but thats good news as it might open up a few more minutes for McDermott. He’s a bit inconsistent but is coming off a 20 point game and now has 20 points in 2 of his last 5 games.

• Doug McDermott over 19.5 Points @ 6.50 with Sportsbet  – 0.2 units

Nets vs Spurs 12:40pm AEST

There’s a lot to like on the Spurs side of the ball here. Nets defence has certainly been better but it still isn’t good at 18th over the last 2 weeks. I would imagine Bruce Brown goes to Dejounte so Demar should find himself in a really nice spot here with it likely being Joe Harris trying to guard him. He’s easily the biggest beneficiary of Keldon and White not playing here, as in a 99 minute sample this season without them, he gets a big 6.7% usage bump posting a really strong 28.1/3.2/8.7 per 36 line. It wasn’t the best matchup for him against the Pels in his return but he was awesome coming off a 2 week break and was great to see him get right up to 38 minutes. Having LA coming off the bench is huge for him, as they have their minutes staggered more and if we add LA to that sample above, Demar posts a ridiculous 40.5/4.6/7.2 per 36 line on 37.8% usage (55 minutes). Did look really good against the Pels with 32/11 creating 19 potentials. His touch time was way up to 7.2 minutes from 5.5 so he should be in for a big night in a great matchup with a similar role. Lonnie would be the other guy I am interested in as the Nets will likely try and hide Kyrie on him.

• DeMar Derozan over 28.5 Points + Assists @ 1.83 with B365 – 1.4 units
• DeMar Derozan over 9.5 Assists @ 4.40 with B365 – 0.2 units

Blazers vs Hornets 2:40pm AEST

Was just going off the numbers last time against the Lakers but probably should have known that they were going to come out aggressive defensively. To their credit they were great, with the Blazers barely getting an easy bucket all night. It was a frustrating watch with a ton of Dame passes leading to fouls as the Lakers just didn’t want to give up anything easy. Kanter struggled missing a bunch around the rim, and the Blazers just couldn’t hit anything from deep so Dame only finished with 7 assists but the role is so so good and he created 19 potentials in that one. Completely different matchup here as Hornets have the 25th ranked defence over the last 2 weeks and coming off a fast paced game last night where Borrego pretty much just rocked an 8 man rotation, expect them to be a little sloppy defensively. Kanter should be far better here (especially if he gets some minutes matched up with PJ) which should be an easy source of Dimes for Dame and the Hornets give up the most wide open 3s in the league, and we can assume a bunch of them will be coming from Dame passes. Pels are in 1st, but the Hornets give up the 2nd most assists to PGs per game, as they are very aggressive on their PNR coverage. They also allow the most assists as a team.

• Damian Lillard over 9.5 Assists @ 1.88 with Topsport – 1.6 units
• Damian Lillard over 13.5 Assists @ 6.50 with Sportsbet – 0.2 units

Bit of a weird day today with not many standout bets. I think Fournier may bounce back here, his role is still great but got schemed out of it 3 back against the Pistons, then the whole team struggled vs Nets and just couldn’t hit a shot last game. Will likely see a lot of JRich here so not too interested. Vooch is in a great spot, but I don’t trust them to be able to hang around with Dallas (similarly to Brooklyn the other day). I’m pretty happy to fade the Bulls Denver game, as Bulls defence has really improved since Wendell has been back, with the 3rd best defensive rating over the last 2 weeks. Bulls really slowed down in Feb also, playing at the 16th ranked pace while Denver were at 24th. Pels and Hornets have a similar defensive scheme both allowing a ton of wide open 3’s, which is troublesome against the Jazz for obvious reasons. They could get destroyed here. I quite liked Conley o5.5 Assists but missed that and don’t feel as great about the 6.5. Was hoping to get Garland o5.5 Assists too, but getting plus odds for 6.5 instead is a bit less appealing. Oladipo should be pretty busy as the rest of the team is on a b2b but he’s just been so bad he’s hard to trust, might be worth having something on his alts. Might have another play coming later on for the Hornets game.

Staking Plan – 3.6 units out

• DeMar Derozan over 28.5 Points + Assists @ 1.83 with B365 – 1.4 units
• DeMar Derozan over 9.5 Assists @ 4.40 with B365 – 0.2 units
• Damian Lillard over 9.5 Assists @ 1.88 with Topsport – 1.6 units
• Damian Lillard over 13.5 Assists @ 6.50 with Sportsbet – 0.2 units
• Doug McDermott over 19.5 Points @ 6.50 with Sportsbet  – 0.2 units
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