Our Professional NBA Tips, Analysis & Staking Plan 2/2

Season Results:

• 125 Wins / 194 Losses
• 88.65 Units Profit
• +48.11% ROI
• View Results Spreadsheets

Knicks vs Bulls 12:10pm AEST

It’s very hard to trust Thibs but this is too good a spot for Quickley to ignore and he is absolutely scorching at the moment with 3 25 point games over his last 4 including a 31 point career high. His usage has skyrocketed at 32.9% with is 7th in the league sitting in between Trae Young and Damian Lillard. He isn’t playing many minutes and that probably won’t change here but he has another shot at a huge night. He has been awesome in the PNR this season in the 82nd percentile while completing 44.8% of his plays. As mentioned last time Bulls played against Dame, they have by far the worst PNR handler defence in the league allowing 1.08 PPP with a big gap to second in the Wolves at 0.98. They are also allowing 4.4 more points per game than the Wizards in second. There is a chance Elf gets going early which is the danger here so having a little saver on him as his line has come way down.

• Immanuel Quickley over 15.5 Points @ 1.80 with B365 – 1.2 units
• Immanuel Quickley over 19.5 Points @ 3.30 with B365 – 0.3 units
• Immanuel Quickley over 24.5 Points @ 8.50 with TAB – 0.1 units
• Elfrid Payton over 14.5 Points @ 8.50 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units

Think we have to come back to him here as even though the matchup isn’t great, the role is too good to ignore. He continues to absolutely smash when he’s playing the centre spot at 35.4 points per 36 (no young) and 26.0 per 36 (with young). I was a little surprised to see him getting some straight C minutes against Kanter last game but should have a much easier time of it here as Mitch Rob, Noel, Taj don’t pose anywhere near as much of an offensive threat. Awesome to see him play 35 minutes in 2 of the last 3 games.

• Lauri Markkanen over 17.5 Points @ 1.80 with Sportsbet – 1 unit

Blazers vs Bucks 12:10pm AEST

Looking for a big bounce back from the Bucks here after a bad loss to the Hornets. Dame is going to be seeing a whole lot of Jrue in this one which will make things extremely tough on him. Going back to 18-19, Dame didn’t get a shot off in 24.9 partial possessions Jrue was on him, in 19-20 he went just 3-14 in 53.9 partial possessions and going back to the 17-18 playoffs which was when the Blazers got emphatically swept, he went just 4-12 in 86.3 partial possessions. It’s a nightmare matchup for him and this is an awful matchup for the really small Blazers team so it could get ugly. If Bucks get rolling early, Bud usually likes to give his bench some extra time and there is some definite garbage time potential here so having a little play on Portis. Giannis is a little banged up so may dial back his minutes too.

• Damian Lillard UNDER 32.5 Points @ 1.85 with TAB – 1 unit
• Bobby Portis over 24.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 7.00 with TAB – 0.2 units

Pelicans vs Kings 12:10pm AEST

Doesn’t get much better for Zion than this matchup. The Kings allow the most Points In The Paint of any team this season which is perfect for Zion who scores 76.8% of his PITP. Kings don’t really have anybody to guard him as he lit up Holmes in their previous meeting going 6-8 on 18.3 partial possessions and it shouldn’t come as a shock but went 3-3 in just 14.4 PP against Bagley. He finished that game with 31 points on just 15 shots and should remain extremely busy here in this one. Adding the dimes in has it’s just 2 more and he’s had that in his last 9 games, flashing some upside with 7 a couple back. He has a 125 minute sample next to Hayes this season, and sees a huge 6.9% usage bump up to 35% with a 35.5/7.2/2.3 line.

• Zion Williamson over 27.5 Points + Assists @ 1.83 with B365 – 1.3 units

Wolves vs Cavs 12:10pm AEST

One more go at Sexton here with Drummond out and Allen taking his place. Allen is assisted on 70.5% of his made baskets whereas Drummond is down at 51.0%. We have a 70 minute sample of Sexton and Allen on the court together (no Drummond) and Sexton’s dimes have seen a huge spike at 8.2 per 36 which is up bigtime from the 3.6 per 36 with Drummond on and Allen off. Bickerstaff mentioned a few back that Sexton and Allen are working on lobs every day in practice so we could get a bunch of them here and Sexton is already the high man of assisting Allen on this Cavs team with 8 dimes (Prince 6, Garland 5). He also gets an 11.2% usage bump so we could just see him try score here. Little save. Also a little save on Garland who gets a nice assist bump up to 7.3 per 36 with Allen sans Drummond and he’s been pretty high with the potentials recently.

• Colin Sexton over 4.5 Assists @ 2.10 with B365 – 1.2 units
• Colin Sexton over 5.5 Assists @ 3.60 with TAB – 0.3 units
• Colin Sexton over 7.5 Assists @ 10.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units
• Darius Garland over 7.5 Assists @ 6.20 with TAB – 0.2 units
• Darius Garland over 9.5 Assists @ 17.00 with TAB – 0.1 units

Staking Plan – 7.1 units out

• Immanuel Quickley over 15.5 Points @ 1.80 with B365 – 1.2 units
• Immanuel Quickley over 19.5 Points @ 3.30 with B365 – 0.3 units
• Immanuel Quickley over 24.5 Points @ 8.50 with TAB – 0.1 units
• Elfrid Payton over 14.5 Points @ 8.50 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units
• Lauri Markkanen over 17.5 Points @ 1.80 with Sportsbet – 1 unit
• Damian Lillard UNDER 32.5 Points @ 1.85 with TAB – 1 unit
• Bobby Portis over 24.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 7.00 with TAB – 0.2 units
• Zion Williamson over 27.5 Points + Assists @ 1.83 with B365 – 1.3 units
• Colin Sexton over 4.5 Assists @ 2.10 with B365 – 1.2 units
• Colin Sexton over 5.5 Assists @ 3.60 with TAB – 0.3 units
• Colin Sexton over 7.5 Assists @ 10.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units
• Darius Garland over 7.5 Assists @ 6.20 with TAB – 0.2 units
• Darius Garland over 9.5 Assists @ 17.00 with TAB – 0.1 units
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