Our Professional NBA Tips, Analysis & Staking Plan 19/9

Season Results:

• 375 Wins / 254 Losses
• +113.10 Units Of Profit
• 17.06% ROI

Lakers vs Nuggets 11:00am AEST

Nuggets have been a pretty tough team to bet on as Malone has been mixing up his rotations game to game (they have lots of options) and they get an awful matchup here against a very good Lakers defence. I think we will be seeing a lot of Jerami Grant in this series, as the primary guy on Lebron. Millsap got torched by AD in the reg season and will likely happen again here so I wouldn’t at all be shocked to see a fair bit of Plumlee-Jokic lineups as we know the Lakers are going to go back to their traditional lineup with AD at the 4 for a lot of the game. I’m not really keen on a lot today as theres a few things I don’t yet have reads on, so keeping the stakes small after a big day yesterday. 

Back to our nemesis KCP here. He has certainly got the better of me this post-season. Over his last 9 games, he has hit this mark 7 times, the 2 games he didn’t we were on him. Houston did a really awesome job limiting his attempts as he was only able to get up 3 in each of his last 2 games. With Davis playing the 5, it gave the Lakers an extra shooter on the court and it pushed KCP around to the above the break spot on a lot of possessions which did really hurt as he wasn’t in the corner for as many Lebron drive and kicks. With McGee back in the starting line-up today, we can expect him to see him and Danny occupying those corners. Minutes should be pretty safe with the Lakers likely needing him to guard Jamal

• KCP over 1.5 3 pointers @ 2.05 with Sportsbet – 0.5 units

He’s been great. Since getting his minutes ramped up in G2 against the Clippers, he’s covered this in 5 of the 6 and is playing with real confidence again. He will obviously get some good looks via Jokic/Murray but his confidence taking guys off the dribble (32% of shots against Clippers had 2+ dribbles) has really grown. It gives him an extra element and more opportunities to cover this. Will have a much easier defensive assignment here (may see the occasional possession on Lebron) so may have some extra gas offensively, which may be called upon if Vogel is making things tough for Jokic/Murray.

• Harris over 9.5 Points @ 1.87 with Ladbrokes (Go to the 10+ market for better odds, next best is 1.78 on Sportsbet) – 0.5 units

I think it’s worth having a bit on the Nuggets here. They are full of confidence right now and I don’t like the move from the Lakers bringing McGee/Dwight back into the rotation as they are far better off with AD at the 5. Lakers have lost both of their previous G1’s and I’m sure Denver really appreciated the extra day off.

• Nuggets +7.5 @ 1.90 with B365 – 0.5 units
• Nuggets ML @ 3.50 with B365 – 0.25 units

Staking Plan

• KCP over 1.5 3 pointers @ 2.05 with Sportsbet – 0.5 units
• Harris over 9.5 Points @ 1.87 with Ladbrokes – 0.5 units
• Nuggets +7.5 @ 1.90 with B365 – 0.5 units
• Nuggets ML @ 3.50 with B365 – 0.25 units
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