Our Professional NBA Tips, Analysis & Staking Plan 19/5

CHARLOTTE, NORTH CAROLINA - MAY 02: Miles Bridges #0 of the Charlotte Hornets brings the ball up court against the Miami Heat during their game at Spectrum Center on May 02, 2021 in Charlotte, North Carolina. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Jacob Kupferman/Getty Images)

Results:

• 89.16 Units Profit
• 16.75% ROI

• View Results Spreadsheets

Pacers vs Hornets 8:40am AEST

The teams are polar opposite when it comes to defensive schemes as the Pacers allow a ton of points in the paint but really limit 3 pointers where the Hornets prioritise packing the paint which leads to giving up the most wide open 3 attempts in the league. I don’t have a strong enough read on the Pacers rotation with it often being a mix of Sumner/Holiday/Holiday/McDermott and potentially even Martin who’s earned himself some minutes but there’s a good chance one of these guys have a big game from the perimeter and knock down multiple 3s. There’s a 298 minute sample of Brogdon/Sabonis together without Turner, Dipo and Levert and it’s definitely Sabonis who pops with 25.2/12.4/6.1 per 36, but it really isn’t the best matchup for him as he gets the majority of his PITP. He could have a big assist game kicking out for 3s.

Bridges is the guy who’s going to benefit the most from the Pacers style of play and it really is a dream matchup for him. Pacers opponents shoot 5% better at the rim while Turner isn’t playing as well as getting there 3.7% more often. Bridges is just going to get so many good looks at the rim off both cuts and drives and he’s sitting around 41% of his shots coming at the rim this season. Over the last 10 games the Pacers rank 1st in pace and 1st in opponent PITP (by a long way – they are at 59.5 with Cavs 2nd at 55.6). Bridges thrives in the paint where he’s scored 45.2% of his points this season. He’s looked so locked in since returning and has been ramped up quickly, getting right up to 39 minutes in the game against the Wiz. Should be playing close to 40 here in a dream matchup.

• Miles Bridges over 19.5 Points @ 2.00 with Topsport – 1 unit
• Miles Bridges over 24.5 Points / Hornets Win @ 7.00 with Sportsbet SGM – 0.1 units

Was keen to back both Zeller and the total game points over here as I was expecting this to be a track meet with two bad defences but held off to wait for the line-ups and it looks like Borego is going to try junk this game up a bit going defence first Biyombo. The path for Zeller minutes is far less simple now as it’ll likely rely on Hornets falling behind and them needing his offence (but even then they are probably better off going with PJ at the 5). I’m a little surprised but the move in what would have been a great matchup for Zeller but have completely 180’d and am keen to back Zeller’s under now.

• Cody Zeller UNDER 20.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.80 with Topsport – 0.5 units

Wizards vs Celtics 11:10am AEST

This one really could go either way. Wizards defence has dramatically improved of late with the 12th best D rating over the last 15 games but the style of defence shouldn’t really cause Celtics too many issues. With their 3 centre rotation they always have some rim protection out there so they’ve been good at cutting out at rim shots but they need to give up something and with the lack of mobility from their centre rotation it means they can struggle getting out to jump shooters. This plays nicely into the Celtics hands who don’t really have anybody who relies on getting to the rim for their offence as it’ll mainly be Kemba, Tatum, Fournier, Smart doing the heavy lifting who all heavily lean on their jump shooting. Definitely don’t think Celtics will have any issues scoring here.

It’s a big line compared to the 18.5/19.5 we have routinely been seeing lately, but it’s still coming through as a strong play. We’ve got a 345 minute of Kemba + Tatum w/o Brown and Kemba has been awesome putting up a 29/4/4 line. He’s looked far better running PNRs lately and should be able to get to his spots whenever in this one. Minutes are certainly going to be there playing 38/39 in his last two and with how thin the Celtics bench is it really wouldn’t surprise to see him get to 40. It’ll be Neto on him and it’s worth noting that Kemba has destroyed him this season on 100 eFG% (small sample of 21 possessions). He’s been hot as anyone of late with 32+ in 3 of his last 4.

• Kemba Walker over 24.5 Points @ 1.85 with Sportsbet – 1 unit
• Kemba Walker over 29.5 Points @ 3.40 with Sportsbet – 0.3 units

Fournier looking far more comfortable and he’s had 3 straight games at 22.5% usage or higher. As mentioned above the Celtics really shouldn’t have any trouble scoring and Fournier is certainly capable of having a big game as he showed against Miami with 30 last week.

• Evan Fournier over 24.5 Points @ 5.00 with Sportsbet – 0.2 units

Staking Plan – 3.1 units out

• Miles Bridges over 19.5 Points @ 2.00 with Topsport – 1 unit
• Miles Bridges over 24.5 Points / Hornets Win @ 7.00 with Sportsbet SGM – 0.1 units
• Cody Zeller UNDER 20.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.80 with Topsport – 0.5 units
• Kemba Walker over 24.5 Points @ 1.85 with Sportsbet – 1 unit
• Kemba Walker over 29.5 Points @ 3.40 with Sportsbet – 0.3 units
• Evan Fournier over 24.5 Points @ 5.00 with Sportsbet – 0.2 units

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