Our Professional NBA Tips, Analysis & Staking Plan 19/2

Season Results:

• 180 Wins / 363 Losses
• 92.58 Units Profit
• +32.22% ROI
• View Results Spreadsheets

Bucks vs Raptors 11:40am AEST

We have a 3 game sample of FVV without Lowry and he gets nice bumps across the board. His touch time goes up from 5.7 minutes to 6.6 minutes, he creates 14.0 potentials up from 13.4, and his usage goes up to 25.1% from 24.2%. He was awesome 2 days ago when these teams met finishing with 33/4/7 (couldn’t hit either of 2 open mid-ranges off Baynes handoffs though) and he really took over once Lowry went down in the second half with a 33.3% usage rate. The Bucks have struggled against PGs all season giving up the 4th most points and they’ll once again be without Jrue here to help limit him. Nurse has no issues playing him massive minutes and he should be headed for 38ish in this one again (played 38:49 2 days ago).

• Fred VanVleet over 21.5 Points @ 1.85 with TAB – 1.2 units
• Fred VanVleet over 29.5 Points @ 4.50 with Sportsbet – 0.2 units

Pascal has only played the 2 games without Lowry but has also seemed to benefit. His touch time goes up a little bit to 4.3 from 4.0 but Nurse likes to use him as the primary playmaker in minutes Freddy is sitting so his potentials spike right up to 11.0 from 7.8. He averages 8.5 dimes in the 2 games sans Lowry and we’ve only got a 24 minute sample of Pascal without either Freddy or Lowry (will probably see about 10 minutes this game) and he has crushed with his assist rate jumping up to 31.3% up from 19.3% managing 5 dimes (7.5 per 36). He did have an 11 assist game against without Lowry earlier in the season but got a little lucky there coming from just 13 potentials. Should be set for big minutes here in a good matchup.

Had this written up with 1.2u out on 5+ @ 1.81, assuming the bookies had already accounted for Lowry being out but the confirmed news came through and it’s not as attractive at 5.5.

• Pascal Siakam over 7.5 Assists @ 6.00 with TAB – 0.2 units

**Bembry has just been moved into the starting line-up and Pascal has been great on the boards this season with no Centre next to him averaging 9.9 per 36. Feel much better about taking the 7.5 but the price isn’t great so adding the assists to it.

• Pascal Siakam over 7.5 Rebounds / Pascal Siakam over 4.5 Assists @ 2.50 with Sportsbet – 1 unit

Over the last 3 games it’s been Donte and Giannis who have taken over the ball handling responsibility’s from Middleton and in that span it’s Giannis leading the team with 15.0 potentials, Donte with 8.3 and Middleton with 7.3. Middleton’s assist numbers have come way down averaging just 2.3 in that stretch while Donte is up at 4.0. These two are pretty highly correlated so am combining them. Want a little bit less of an outlay here as Bucks have dropped 4 straight so Bud might be looking to make a change. In my opinion they looked far better in the 2 games against the Nuggets and Suns (W vs Nuggets, 1pt loss to Suns) when Middleton was running the offence.

• Khris Middleton UNDER 6.5 Assists / Donte DiVincenzo over 3.5 Assists @ 3.60 with Sportsbet – 0.5 units
• Khris Middleton UNDER 6.5 Assists / Donte DiVincenzo over 5.5 Assists @ 8.75 with Sportsbet – 0.1 unit

Nets vs Lakers 2:10pm AEST

Not getting much of an edge on any of these so it’s hard to make them a play (obviously I like them all individually) but just going to throw them in a multi as it should be a fun one to watch. I can’t get the Lakers favourites here without AD.

• Kyrie Irving over 29.5 Points / Lebron James over 29.5 Points / James Harden over 10.5 Assists / Brooklyn Nets +3.5 @ 10.25 with Sportsbet – 0.3 units

Staking Plan – 3.5 units out

• Fred VanVleet over 21.5 Points @ 1.85 with TAB – 1.2 units
• Fred VanVleet over 29.5 Points @ 4.50 with Sportsbet – 0.2 units
• Pascal Siakam over 7.5 Assists @ 6.00 with TAB – 0.2 units
• Pascal Siakam over 7.5 Rebounds / Pascal Siakam over 4.5 Assists @ 2.50 with Sportsbet – 1 unit
• Khris Middleton UNDER 6.5 Assists / Donte DiVincenzo over 3.5 Assists @ 3.60 with Sportsbet – 0.5 units
• Khris Middleton UNDER 6.5 Assists / Donte DiVincenzo over 5.5 Assists @ 8.75 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units
• Kyrie Irving over 29.5 Points / Lebron James over 29.5 Points / James Harden over 10.5 Assists / Brooklyn Nets +3.5 @ 10.25 with Sportsbet – 0.3 units
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