Our Professional NBA Tips, Analysis & Staking Plan 18/9

Season Results:

• 356 Wins / 239 Losses
• +106.36 Units Of Profit
• 17.14% ROI

Celtics vs Heat 9:00am AEST

Something I thought might happen coming into this series was Boston’s assist numbers coming down, due to Miami’s switching defence however I couldn’t find a betting angle. That played out in G1 with just 38 potential assists as a team (including OT) which has them at 0.72 per minute. On the regular season they were at 0.83 and during the first 2 rounds 0.84, for comparison. Smart is full of confidence shooting the ball right now so I expect him to keep firing them up. Although he covered this in the last 4 games vs Toronto, this is a completely different series and he had just the 1 dime in G1 (maybe a little unlucky with 4 potentials) and I expect them to be limited again here playing more as a shooter.

• Smart under 4.5 Assists @ 1.76 with B365 – 1 unit

Got a little bit lucky in G1 (apologies to those who could only get 25.5) but he really should have smashed this line. Heat have been great against PNR ball handlers at just 0.66 points per possession in the playoffs where Kemba is usually great, but I saw enough from him to go again here as he scored in a variety of ways. Heat’s defence is so good it’s going to result in a lot of broken down plays which should get back to either Kemba or Tatum for late-ish clock isolations so I think the opportunities will be there again for him. He had a massive 10.1 minutes of touch time (including OT) which is will above his 7.2 per game for the playoffs. He was just 4-13 on uncontested shots and 1-7 on open or wide open 3’s so have to think those will come around again at some point too. I just touched on Heat limiting Boston’s assists, but I think that may have more impact on the other guys as opposed to Kemba. He had 6 dimes from 10 potentials in G1

• Kemba over 24.5 Points + Assists @ 1.80 with Sportsbet – 1 unit

Another one where we got a bit lucky with OT, but again he probably should’ve covered this earlier as he missed a handful of chances around the rim and a couple good looks from mid-range which he’s been knocking down of late. Was great to see him play 37:33 minutes in regulation and he looked fantastic once again. I thought Miami’s ball handlers missed him on the roll a handful of times so still think there’s some more upside with his scoring. Got to the line 11 times and had a 23% usage which was the second highest on the team. Passing was on point once again and he racked up 9 dimes (only 13 potentials, but a lot of them were great looks around the rim) so expect them to show up again. I’m a little scared about his rebounding, as he had 16 rebound chances  but only brought down 6 of them (very low for a centre)

• Bam over 20.5 Points + Assists @ 1.91 with Sportsbet – 1 unit

Very close to pulling the trigger on him for G1 but ultimately left him out as I thought it was a much tougher overall matchup for him than against the Bucks who were leaving his mid-range completely uncontested. I was wrong and he looked great in G1 with a 29/4 line. He managed to create some really good looks, with 11 of his 19 shots coming uncontested and he had a very promising quote post game essentially saying how Spo told him he needs to be aggressive and of course has a clear advantage whenever Kemba is on him. Has consistently led the team in usage and no different here, with a 26.2% rate. Should note he torched Boston during the regular season with a 26.9/6.5/3.7 per 36 line.

Boston have an interesting decision to make on where to use Smart, as he is by far their best guy at fighting through screens to cover Robinson, but was also very effective on Dragic in G1 as he only managed to get the 1 shot off (missed) in 2:59 minutes of matchup time (11.0 partial possessions). Duncan’s line’s have come right down and he is always a chance to go off from 3, so taking these bets as a little bit of a hedge. His minutes were down at 17 – largely due to foul trouble – but I think we can see him get back to mid 20s. He still managed to get some clean looks in G1 being open on 6 of his 7 attempts.

• Dragic over 22.5 Points + Assists @ 1.83 with B365 – 1 unit
• Robinson over 3.5 3’s @ 5.50 with Sportsbet – 0.2 units
• Robinson over 4.5 3’s @ 14.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units
• Robinson over 5.5 3’s @ 41.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units

He’s been great and after having his minutes top out at 27 vs Indiana, he’s played 30+ in each of the last 6. He’s made the most of it with 16 or more points in each of his last 5. I’ve been a little hesitant to take him as he wasn’t doing much other than shoot 3’s so was always a chance of going cold, but this matchup gives him the chance to do a little more. Boston are trying to hide Kemba on him at times which gives Miami a few options either to get Crowder involved as the screener or to give Crowder the chance to use his size with the clear mismatch. It won’t happen much (1:37 matchup minutes – 3rd most behind Brown and Smart) but it gets him a little more involved on the offensive end which could create an extra couple of shots for him. Line of 11.5 is good as 4 3’s will get him there (hit 4 in his last 5 games) if he doesn’t get any other looks.

• Crowder over 11.5 points @ 1.78 with Sportsbet – 1 unit

A few others I had long looks at and like but haven’t pulled the trigger; Tatum double double (2.00 with B365), Herro over 4.5 rebounds (1.87 with Topsport), Smart over 2.5 3’s (2.00 with B365), Theis under 9.5 points (1.74 with Sportsbet) 

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Staking Plan

• Smart under 4.5 Assists @ 1.76 with B365 – 1 unit
• Kemba over 24.5 Points + Assists @ 1.80 with Sportsbet – 1 unit
• Bam over 20.5 Points + Assists @ 1.91 with Sportsbet – 1 unit
• Dragic over 22.5 Points + Assists @ 1.83 with B365 – 1 unit
• Robinson over 3.5 3’s @ 5.50 with Sportsbet – 0.2 units
• Robinson over 4.5 3’s @ 14.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units
• Robinson over 5.5 3’s @ 41.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units
• Crowder over 11.5 points @ 1.78 with Sportsbet – 1 unit
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