Our Professional NBA Tips, Analysis & Staking Plan 18/3

Pre Break:

• 79.28 Units Profit
• 20.32% ROI

Post Break:

• 1.80 Units Loss
• -8.96% ROI
• View Results Spreadsheets

Bucks vs 76ers 10:10am

He’s been playing at an all star level and gets a great chance to showcase himself here on national TV. He is by far the biggest beneficiary of Embiid getting hurt as he’s seen a 4.9% usage bump this season without him right up to 28.7%. His per 36 numbers are so strong with 26.9/7.9/3.5. It’s only been 2 games, but Tobi has really played well in sub-par matchups covering this easily in both of them with 23/7 in just 28 minutes in the blowout win against the Spurs and 30/2 yesterday against the Knicks. Both these teams are flying with the Bucks 4th and Philly 8th over their last 8 games which should set up a really nice game environment. His efficiency does dip a little on b2bs but he is headed for big minutes in a plus matchup here with such a good role.

• Tobias Harris over 25.5 Points + Assists @ 1.80 with B365 – 1.1 units

Pacers vs Nets 10:10am

I don’t think the bookies have fully adjusted for Levert’s new role in this Pacers offence yet where he isn’t being asked to do any sort of playmaking. He averaged 6.0 assists in his time with the Nets this season, but the tracking stats are well down across the board with 2.3 minutes of touch time (4.9 with Nets) and 4.0 potentials (9.8 with Nets). He hasn’t got above 2 dimes yet in his time with the Pacers. Going to be happy to ride this under until we see a change in his role. Still not fully ramped up either as he hasn’t got above 30 minutes yet.

• Caris Levert UNDER 4.5 Assists @ 1.76 with B365 – 1.2 units

Warriors vs Rockets 11:10am

It’s a really nice spot for Dray and the Warriors to bounce back here taking on the severely undermanned Rockets on the second night of a b2b. It has been 17 games since Kerr adjusted the offences and put Dray into this new role (started with the back to back 15 assist games against the Mavs) and in that time he’s averaging 10.3 dimes covering this line 12/17 times. In that span however there has been some shockers so have dug further in and the splits are awesome. Warriors have gone 8-9 in those 17 games, and in the 8 wins Dray has covered this all 8 times with at least 11 dimes in all of them averaging a ridiculous 13.38 assists in that span. They are 1.14 favourites tomorrow against the short-handed rockets who have been getting absolutely torched of late with a 125.8 defensive rating over the last 2 weeks which is good for worst in the league. They’ve been giving up a stack of assists in that span as well allowing the 3rd most per game at 28.6. Dray has versed 6 bottom 10 defences in the 17 game stretch and has a ridiculous assist percentage of 40.2% as his assist number is a clear barometer for how the Warriors are going. There is a very good chance this blows out but with the Warriors rotation of him playing the entire 3rd quarter, he should have this wrapped up if they are blowing out the Rockets.

• Draymond Green over 9.5 Assists @ 2.10 with Sportsbet – 1.2 units
• Draymond Green over 11.5 Assists @ 4.20 with Sportsbet – 0.2 units
• Draymond Green over 13.5 Assists @ 10.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units

Spurs vs Bulls 11:10am

He is primed for a big game here. His raw numbers since returning from the COVID absence haven’t been flashy, but there is good reason. We were on him against Orlando when Demar first missed and he came through for us with 2 triples and a 17/1/2 line but I wasn’t too happy with the low minutes so left him against Philly where he had an awesome game in a blowout loss with 17/4/4 in just 25 minutes. He led the team in minutes there with 25:14 but checked out with 4:36 to go in the 3rd and didn’t play again so would’ve got up to at least 32, probably closer to 34. Then he played in his first back to back of the season against the Pistons and was fine (9/5/2) in limited playing time with just 24 minutes, again not playing a second in the 4th quarter. He’s had a day off now so should be more than ready to get into the mid 30s. He has a 20.7/4.8/3.9 per 36 line in the 3 games without Demar, which is about on pace with the 21.5/3.7/5.1 per 36 line in his 147 minutes without Demar and LA on the court this season, which is also about on pace with the 19.3/5.0/5.6 per 36 without those 2 in a far bigger sample last season. If we average that out to about 20/4/5 per 36, 28 minutes gets him over the base. He gets a plus matchup here against the Bulls who are playing at one of the leagues fastest paces and although their defence is 12th over the last 2 weeks, they are still 20th on the season and are on the b2b here. I think in a few weeks even once Demar is back we will be seeing White’s PRA lines in the mid 20s and this is just too low. He has almost identical home and away splits so not concerned there and this game has a 1.5 spread (not that that means much in avoiding blowouts this season).

• Derrick White over 21.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.95 with TAB – 1.1 units
• Derrick White over 29.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 6.50 with TAB – 0.2 units

Nuggets vs Hornets 12:10pm

He’s a nightly triple double threat and I actually quite like him to cover both his rebound and assist lines in this one so makes sense combining the RA when he has a stack of upside for both of them. He’s really started grabbing boards again covering the 10.5 in 6 of his last 8 games averaging 11.8 boards and gets the great rebounding matchup today against the Hornets who allow the 3rd most rebounds to centres in the league (Holmes just grabbed 15 against them 2 days ago). His assist numbers have been a bit inconsistent lately but he should have an easy time finding open guys on the perimeter from the post here with the Hornets prioritising their paint defence and Hornets allow the most assists in the league. His splits are a bit better at home where he averages 0.8 more boards and 0.5 more dimes. Has 19 RA in both his last 2 games, but before that covered this in 5 straight. Closest big man in the league to Jokic in terms of passing would be Sabonis and he had a triple double against Charlotte earlier in the season.

• Nikola Jokic over 19.5 Rebounds + Assists @ 1.85 with Sportsbet – 1 unit

Staking Plan – 6.1 units out

• Draymond Green over 9.5 Assists @ 2.10 with Sportsbet – 1.2 units
• Draymond Green over 11.5 Assists @ 4.20 with Sportsbet – 0.2 units
• Draymond Green over 13.5 Assists @ 10.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units
• Derrick White over 21.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.95 with TAB – 1.1 units
• Derrick White over 29.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 6.50 with TAB – 0.2 units
• Tobias Harris over 25.5 Points + Assists @ 1.80 with B365 – 1.1 units
• Caris Levert UNDER 4.5 Assists @ 1.76 with B365 – 1.2 units
• Nikola Jokic over 19.5 Rebounds + Assists @ 1.85 with Sportsbet – 1 unit
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