Our Professional NBA Tips, Analysis & Staking Plan 17/3

Pre Break:

• 79.28 Units Profit
• 20.32% ROI

Post Break:

• 1.65 Units Loss
• -9.30% ROI
• View Results Spreadsheets

Miami vs Cavs 11:10am

Brutal setup today for Allen who has really cooled off after the awesome stretch once he was moved into the starting lineup. He’s stayed under this mark in 3 of his last 4 games with 10,17,5,9 and couldn’t get a worse matchup here against Bam. Miami ranked 1st in opponent points in the paint which is where Allen does most of his damage with a really high 68.5% of his points coming from inside. 23.3% of his offensive possessions are put-backs which Miami excel at defending giving up the 3rd fewest PP100P and 31.9% of his offensive possessions are him used as the roll man which is the 8th highest mark of anybody in the league, where Miami are the best in the league at defending giving up just 0.97 PPP and 5.3 points per game. With the Cavs, Allen has a 66.7 eFG% but that drops massively to 58.2% on the road and 56.2% against top 10 ranked defences (Miami have the 6th ranked defence and 1st over the last 2 weeks). Massive blowout risk here with the 11.0 spread and Cavs have a game tomorrow so I don’t expect him to play garbage time which has been the case occasionally this season. Both teams have been playing extremely slow with Miami ranked 30th and Cavs ranked 24th in pace over their last 10 games.

• Jarrett Allen UNDER 13.5 Points @ 1.87 with TAB – 1.2 units

Bulls vs OKC 11:10am

Dort out was the key for me here as it gives him an even higher projected minutes (and ceiling) and for someone who can contribute in all 3 categories, the more minutes the better. He is one of the strangest players I’ve ever watched play basketball but the talent is obviously there and although he’s extremely raw I think he’s going to have a decent career. He is still wildly inefficient but he is a stat stuffer and his time spent in the G-League was no different with a per 36 line of 11.3/10.4/5.7. He only shot 31.2% from the field in that sample so there is sooo much upside in his scoring on that number if he can get some shots to fall, which he showed us last game against the Grizz with the ridiculous 23/10/4 line in 39 minutes. I’m glad I got up at 5 to watch that game as it was quite telling how keen OKC are to develop him, as he was pretty much able to do whatever he wanted out there playing every position from 1-4 including some PG reps where he was bringing the ball up the court. He had 81 touches which was by far the most on the team (Shai 68) and the most front-court touches with 44 (Roby 32). Has played 3 games since coming back from the G-League with 25 PRA vs Mavs, 13 PRA vs Knicks in a tough matchup where he went 2-11 (both those games he played 29 minutes) then the breakout 37 PRA in 39 minutes against the Grizz. They’ve said Svi is unlikely to play as well so I would think it solidifies Poku’s minutes into the mid 30s. Will play garbage time if that eventuates.

• Aleksej Pokusevski over 20.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.88 with Topsport – 1 unit
• Aleksej Pokusevski over 19.5 @ 15.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units
• Aleksej Pokusevski Double Double @ 5.50 with B365 – 0.1 units

Staking Plan – 2.4 units out

• Jarrett Allen UNDER 13.5 Points @ 1.87 with TAB – 1.2 units
• Aleksej Pokusevski over 20.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.88 with Topsport – 1 unit
• Aleksej Pokusevski over 19.5 @ 15.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units
• Aleksej Pokusevski Double Double @ 5.50 with B365 – 0.1 units
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