Our Professional NBA Tips, Analysis & Staking Plan 17/2

Season Results:

• 150 Wins / 270 Losses
• 94.01 Units Profit
• +41.18% ROI
• View Results Spreadsheets

Nuggets vs Celtics 11:10am AEST

With no Theis today I feel pretty good about Ojeleye’s role as he should remain in the starting line-up and get into the upper 20s minutes. Coming off a bad night against the Wizards where he went 1-6 from deep but before that one he was hot, knocking down 8 triples in the 2 games prior. Gets a good chance to bounce back here against the Nuggets who allow the 5th most corner 3’s, and they don’t defend them well ranked 22nd. Sets up nicely for Semi as he takes 32% of his overall shots from the corners, which is 96th percentile amongst forwards. With Boston having so much fire-power from their big 3, it results in him getting clean looks and he’s been open or wide open for all 18 of his attempts over his last 3. He’s an above average shooter at 37.2% for the season (37.8% last season).

• Semi Ojeleye over 1.5 3 Pointers @ 2.30 with B365 – 1 unit

Grizzlies vs Pelicans 12:10pm AEST

This is an awesome spot for Grayson today. He’s slid into the starting line-up seamlessly and over the last 3 has taken 25 shots from deep. He’s a lethal shooter knocking down 13 of them and is full of confidence right now. All season the Pels have prioritised protecting the paint, and for the most part have done a very good job as they give up the 5th fewest PITP but similarly to the Hornets as I’ve talked about before, that means they are leaving shooters and they are giving up the most 3PA in the league. Opposing teams have been making them pay as well shooting the 3rd highest percentage from 3. Ja is an awesome passer from the lane and he demands so much attention on his drives that the Grizz perimeter guys get quality looks. Over the last 3 games, Allen is getting 6.0 wide open looks and 2.3 open looks per game (included just 3 attempts against the Kings, who don’t allow many 3 pointers). Can get very hot.

• Grayson Allen over 2.5 3 Pointers @ 1.80 with Topsport – 1.2 units
• Grayson Allen over 4.5 3 Pointers @ 5.50 with Sportsbet – 0.2 units

Raptors vs Bucks 12:10pm AEST

The Raptors centre rotation hasn’t gotten any clearer over the last week but Baynes has been playing a bit better in his limited minutes recently and I really like this matchup for him. The Bucks front-court is massive with Giannis and Lopez and Nurse really doesn’t trust Boucher’s defence so this could be an extended Baynes spot. They are using him a bit more in the offence recently with a ton of DHO stuff so he’s seen a nice bump in his assist numbers  with 3,4,2,1 over his last 4. He’s averaging 20.0 front court touches over that span which is up from the 16.1 on the season. Could push into the upper 20s here and we’re getting a really nice price on this. Quite like his over 13.5 PRA too.

• Aron Baynes over 1.5 Assists @ 3.00 with B365 – 0.8 units
• Aron Baynes over 2.5 Assists @ 7.00 with Sportsbet – 0.2 units

Lakers vs Wolves 12:10pm AEST

Hard to take the 1.60 for 4+ but I don’t mind having some exposure to him here in a game that could very well end up blowing out which would benefit him a ton. His per minute assist numbers are spectacular and he creates so many potentials that even the slightest minute bump could see him really capitalise. It’s a tough matchup overall against the Lakers but he should be able to have some success against a Harrell anchored second unit.

• Jordan McLaughlin over 6.5 Assists @ 6.25 with B365 – 0.3 units

Staking Plan – 3.7 units out

• Semi Ojeleye over 1.5 3 Pointers @ 2.30 with B365 – 1 unit
• Grayson Allen over 2.5 3 Pointers @ 1.80 with Topsport – 1.2 units
• Grayson Allen over 4.5 3 Pointers @ 5.50 with Sportsbet – 0.2 units
• Aron Baynes over 1.5 Assists @ 3.00 with B365 – 0.8 units
• Aron Baynes over 2.5 Assists @ 7.00 with Sportsbet – 0.2 units
• Jordan McLaughlin over 6.5 Assists @ 6.25 with B365 – 0.3 units
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