Our Professional NBA Tips, Analysis & Staking Plan 17/1

Season Results:

• 56 Wins / 91 Losses
• 13.76 Units Profit
• +14.78% ROI
• View Results Spreadsheets

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Nets vs Magic 10:10am AEST

Man. What a let down yesterday. Touch time was right down to 4.7 mins as Cole was dominating the ball while he was out there (5.9 mins touch time vs 4.9 previous game). Still had his chances to cover the line, with a few guys missing some shots late, finishing with 7 potentials. Credit to the Celtics defence who made everything pretty tough and made this Magic offence look absolutely awful (it isn’t great) but today we might get a more free flowing game like we did against the Bucks (Nets are 5th in pace and 20th in defensive rating over their last 7) and we’re getting a better price here. He is still taking control of the second unit and Terrence Ross is ice cold right now, so if he can break out today in a good matchup for him then Gordon could rack up some dimes through him. Have to mention how bad Cole looked yesterday with 5 awful turnovers so maybe Gordon gets some more PG reps with the first unit. AG only played 28 mins yesterday so should get his full compliment here. Fairly scared of the blowout again but he did manage to get 8 dimes against Bucks in the blowout there. Nets give up 1.35 PPP to the Roll Man which is 2nd highest in the league, so Vooch could be a beneficiary here too which will help AG and hopefully keep Orlando in this. Have included yesterdays write up as some of these numbers are hard to look past.

“Point Gordon is here to stay and I am absolutely stunned we are getting this line again. We cashed in last game, but it was the way he did it which was so good moving forward. Vucevic is a very talented offensive player, but he is far more efficient as a catch and shoot guy (48.9% last season vs 39.0% on pull ups) and it was the pick and pop with Fultz that was so such a big part of the offence, so seeing Gordon running that with him against the Bucks was extremely exciting. Vooch was assisted on 8 of his 11 made field goals against the Bucks, with a whopping 5 of them coming from AG. He is in some seriously elite company with 7.7!! minutes of touch time last game. That ranks 2nd!! among all players last game (Luka 8.5, CP 7.6, Brogdon 7.5). Their offence is a bit stagnated so a lot of times guys can’t get off clean looks off his passes, so he only had the 13 potentials last game but I think there might be some upside there also. 35 mins in back to back games and Clifford said likes how the offence is organised with Gordon running point.”

• Aaron Gordon over 3.5 Assists @ 1.95 with B365 – 1 units
• Aaron Gordon over 4.5 Assists @ 3.05 with B365 – 0.3 units
• Aaron Gordon over 5.5 Assists @ 5.70 with TAB – 0.1 units
• Aaron Gordon over 6.5 Assists @ 8.25 with B365 – 0.1 units
• Aaron Gordon over 7.5 Assists @ 19.00 with TAB – 0.1 units

Raptors vs Hornets 11:40am AEST

Just getting a low line here and am more than happy to take it. He’s covered it in 3 of his last 4 (11 in other) averaging 14.75 in that span including a big game against the Hornets just 2 days ago with 6 boards and 12 dimes. He looked awesome and the dimes were certainly no fluke creating 22 potentials. Raptors are continuing to go with this smaller line-up or with Boucher at the 5 and Lowry’s rebound and assist rates come up a touch in both of those lineups. Nurse has no trust in his bench currently so his role/minutes is as safe as anybody in the league.

• Kyle Lowry over 11.5 Rebounds + Assists @ 1.80 with B365 – 1 unit

Anybody that plays season long fantasy wouldn’t have been surprised by Boucher’s strong start to the season as he is someone that’s always been a per minute beast just in a log jam behind Ibaka/Gasol. Nurse has no option but to play him now with Len out and Baynes poor start to the season. Looks like they are pricing this line just off his season averages (22.8) but he’s done that in just 22 minutes but as long as he stays out of foul trouble here he’ll be flirting with 30. He averages bang on 1 PRA per minute for the season so if he does get up to 30 he should be covering this in a good matchup. Just had his best game of the season against them with 25/10/2 2 days ago.

• Chris Boucher over 24.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.82 with Topsport – 1 unit

76ers vs Grizzlies 11:40am AEST

No Embiid today so we’ll see Dwight move into the starting lineup. It’s a nice spot for him against the Grizzlies who have allowed the 4th most rebounds to opposing centres this season at 17.3 per game. He’s averaging 7.0 boards on the season in just 16.7 minutes which puts him at 10.5 per 25 minutes which is a conservative estimate for today against JV. Last game Embiid missed he was riddled with foul trouble but still managed to get to 23 minutes so there is probably some upside for him to push up closer to 30 as well.

• Dwight Howard over 8.5 Rebounds @ 1.80 with TAB – 1.3 units
• Dwight Howard over 11.5 Rebounds @ 4.60 with TAB – 0.2 units

Everything has lined up today for Shake to keep it rolling today. He’s been really strong over his last 3 games averaging 30.3 PA in just 27.3 minutes. Seth is out again today which means he should be a lock for 25+ minutes with some upside as well. He’s posted a 30.2% usage rate over his last 3 and the dimes can stick around as he’s averaging 10.0 potentials per game in that span. It’s a pretty large 149 minute sample, so seeing Shake get a huge 5.6% usage bump without Embiid on the floor can’t be taken lightly. He’s posted a crazy 27.8/2.2/5.3 per 36 line in that time without Embiid on the court and gets a nice matchup against the Grizz.

• Shake Milton over 18.5 Points + Assists @ 1.90 with B365 – 1.2 units

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Staking Plan – 6.3 units out

• Aaron Gordon over 3.5 Assists @ 1.95 with B365 – 1 units
• Aaron Gordon over 4.5 Assists @ 3.05 with B365 – 0.3 units
• Aaron Gordon over 5.5 Assists @ 5.70 with TAB – 0.1 units
• Aaron Gordon over 6.5 Assists @ 8.25 with B365 – 0.1 units
• Aaron Gordon over 7.5 Assists @ 19.00 with TAB – 0.1 units
• Kyle Lowry over 11.5 Rebounds + Assists @ 1.80 with B365 – 1 unit
• Chris Boucher over 24.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.82 with Topsport – 1 unit
• Dwight Howard over 8.5 Rebounds @ 1.80 with TAB – 1.3 units
• Dwight Howard over 11.5 Rebounds @ 4.60 with TAB – 0.2 units
• Shake Milton over 18.5 Points + Assists @ 1.90 with B365 – 1.2 units
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