Our Professional NBA Tips, Analysis & Staking Plan 16/9

Season Results:

• 356 Wins / 239 Losses
• +106.36 Units Of Profit
• 17.14% ROI

Celtics vs Heat 8:300am AEST

Love this series for Kemba. He was taken out of the back half of the Raptors series with some extreme methods by Nurse but should really have a much easier time of things here with the combination of Dragic, Robinson & Herro guarding him. It was good to see him logging major minutes against the Raptors and from all accounts is feeling great so should be ready to go again here with the extra time off. He’s fared well against Miami this season, with a per 36 line of 22.1/3.4.7.1 and I think it’s reasonable to project him around that mark again. Raptors really took away his rhythm and it impacted his jumper going just 2-13 on open or wide open 3’s (4-25 overall from 3) over his last 4 games so expect that to come back here with the freshen up. Wouldn’t surprise if he was the best player in this series.

• Kemba over 24.5 Points + Assists @ 1.80 with B365 – 1.5 units

Just really continues to impress me on both ends of the floor. He fared surprisingly well against the Bucks in what was a really tough matchup for him averaging 17.2/12.0/4.4 in 36.2 minutes, coving this line in 3 of the 5 games. This should be a lot easier for him against a Boston team who have really had struggle containing centres over the season, allowing by far the most fantasy points than at  any other position (good guage for PRA betting). Boston had some success using Grant Williams at the 5 against the Raptors and it looks like Stevens is starting to trust him (closed G7) which would be a very favourable matchup for Bam. Looked comfortable against Boston when they met in the seeding games, with a 21/12/2 line in just 32 minutes. Really hope we see Spo push his minutes into the high 30s consistently here.

• Bam over 29.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.87 with Topsport – 1 unit

These are both great defences but ultimately think Boston are the better team overall and think they’ll come away with the series. Getting a decent price about it too. 

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Clippers vs Nuggets 11:00am AEST

As a rule minutes generally = production and minutes are no longer a lock for Grant in this series. They relied on him heavily to guard Kawhi early on, but with the strong play of Harris (most time on PG), Craig and Porter they now have other options. Craig played the full 4th in G6 resulting in Grant playing a series low 20 minutes finishing with 4/0/2. Grant has only covered this line once in the series (16) and that was in G1 where he went 3-6 from 3.

• Grant under 15.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.78 with Sportsbet – 1 unit

On the flip side to this, Harris is a lock for 40+ minutes (providing he stays out of foul trouble which cost him in G5,G6). He’s looked really good out there and has covered this in 4 of the last 5, despite averaging just 31.4 minutes. Don’t often go to per 40 numbers but am very confident he hits this mark tonight after playing a team high 42:12 in G6. Over this 5 game stretch he’s at 14.2 points and 3.8 dimes.

• Harris over 11.5 Points + Assists @ 1.83 with B365 – 1 unit

Man. He has been deadset awful. Won’t go back into the advanced numbers again but they aren’t pretty. He played 15 minutes last game which I thought was generous and I really just don’t think he can play any minutes with Jokic out there which would bring him down to the 7-10 range. If that’s the case, this line look very high considering he has only covered this once in the last 5 (covered in G1 in garbage time) playing 17.7 minutes.

• Harrell under 14.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.87 with Ladbrokes – 1 unit

I wish I could back Beverly with confidence as I really think he will play 30+ minutes here, but he hasn’t been overly productive in this series with a per 36 line of 9.6/7.2/3.7 (10.9/7.1/4.9 over the season) and is always a danger of fouling out at 7.2 fouls per 36. His PRA line is at 13.5 on TAB. 

Staking Plan

• Kemba over 24.5 Points + Assists @ 1.80 with B365 – 1.5 units
• Bam over 29.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.87 with Topsport – 1 unit
• Grant under 15.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.78 with Sportsbet – 1 unit
• Harris over 11.5 Points + Assists @ 1.83 with B365 – 1 unit
• Harrell under 14.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.87 with Ladbrokes – 1 unit
• Click Here To Get Top Odds With TopSport