Our Professional NBA Tips, Analysis & Staking Plan 16/1

Season Results:

• 56 Wins / 91 Losses
• 13.76 Units Profit
• +14.78% ROI
• View Results Spreadsheets

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Celtics vs Magic 11:40am AEST

Point Gordon is here to stay and I am absolutely stunned we are getting this line again. We cashed in last game, but it was the way he did it which was so good moving forward. Vucevic is a very talented offensive player, but he is far more efficient as a catch and shoot guy (48.9% last season vs 39.0% on pull ups) and it was the pick and pop with Fultz that was so such a big part of the offence, so seeing Gordon running that with him against the Bucks was extremely exciting. Vooch was assisted on 8 of his 11 made field goals against the Bucks, with a whopping 5 of them coming from AG. He is in some seriously elite company with 7.7!! minutes of touch time last game. That ranks 2nd!! among all players last game (Luka 8.5, CP 7.6, Brogdon 7.5). Their offence is a bit stagnated so a lot of times guys can’t get off clean looks off his passes, so he only had the 13 potentials last game but I think there might be some upside there also. 35 mins in back to back games and Clifford said likes how the offence is organised with Gordon running point.

*Sportsbet have just removed the 10+ Assist line which was at 51.00, so if they put that back up or anything above 30 it’s worth a little dabble.

• Aaron Gordon over 3.5 Assists @ 1.83 with B365 – 1.2 units
• Aaron Gordon over 4.5 Assists @ 2.85 with B365 – 0.4 units
• Aaron Gordon over 5.5 Assists @ 4.20 with TAB – 0.2 units
• Aaron Gordon over 6.5 Assists @ 7.75 with B365 – 0.1 units
• Aaron Gordon over 7.5 Assists @ 12.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units

Everything is running through AG & Vooch now in Orlando. I was a little concerned no Futlz may impact Vooch as they have such a nice two-man game, but it looks like he’s going to make up for that in volume. Clifford has mentioned a few times he is going to continuously feed Vooch, and that resulted in him obliterating his previous season high usage turning in a ridiculous 37.7% rate against the Bucks. He finished with 28/13/5 despite shooting just 44% from the field. Not the greatest matchup but there’s going to be so much volume and he is very talented. Only played 31 mins against the Bucks, so there may be some more minute upside too, as he’s got up to 34 twice this season. Clifford is pretty consistent with his rotations and almost always brings his starters back in the 4^th quarter despite the score-line which is an added bonus.

• Nikola Vucevic over 35.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.85 with TAB – 1.3 units
• Nikola Vucevic over 29.5 Points @ 7.50 with B365 – 0.2 units

Mavs vs Bucks 11:40am AEST

Not a ton of value here on the base line but it should be a fairly easy cover. With so many guys in health protocols for the Mavs, WCS is going to have to play somewhere around 30 mins. He’s coming off a strong game where he grabbed 14 boards in 29 minutes, and he gets a nice matchup here against the Bucks who allow opposing centres the 9^th most rebounds. He’s averaging 0.33 boards per minute on the season which is 9.24 per 28 minutes which is around what I’d expect from him here.

• Willie Cauley-Stein over 6.5 Rebounds @ 1.70 with Topsport – 1 unit

Not as many as last season, but the Bucks still give up a stack of 3 pointers as they attempt to stop teams scoring in the paint and with Luka driving so often it sets up nicely for their perimeter guys. Burke can be very hard to trust but he can really fill it up when he gets going and it was amazing to see him get to 32 minutes last game with all the outs. He’s a very willing shooter and he’s taken 16 over his last 2 games with all of them being either open or wide open. Happy to have a little go here at the nice odds and hope he can get going. Showed what he can do when he gets going knocking down 7 treys 2 games back.

• Trek Burke over 2.5 3 Pointers @ 2.55 with B365 – 0.6 units
• Trek Burke over 3.5 3 Pointers @ 4.80 with TAB – 0.1 units
• Trek Burke over 4.5 3 Pointers @ 10.00 with TAB – 0.1 units

Jazz vs Hawks 1:10pm AEST

“Easily the biggest beneficiary of Ingles not playing. Sucks about the matchup here, but still a great play. He’s averaging 16.8 on the season which is pretty remarkable in just 23.9 minutes but with Ingles ruled out here, I think we’re going to see a big minute bump here. He’s just a flat out scorer so any extra minutes will lead to extra shots for him and he’s at a pretty crazy 28.1 points per 36 this season. Quin Snyder doesn’t have much trust in his bench and we got a good glimpse of that against the Bucks when Ingles missed and he went with an 8 man rotation. Clarkson actually led the team in minutes there playing a whopping 34:45. He got up 20 shots and finished with 26 points. Matchup kills a bit of the upside.”

This was my write-up last game for Clarkson and he came through for us with 21 points despite the blowout and only playing 28 minutes. The Hawks starters actually have the 2nd best defensive rating amongst 5 man line-ups so for them to be down at 11th in defence means their bench is vulnerable which makes a lot of sense when you look at the personnel. It’s a fine matchup for him and this line is probably just too low, especially if he’s going to push into the 30s which would not surprise me.

• Jordan Clarkson over 17.5 Points @ 1.93 with Topsport – 1 unit

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Staking Plan – 6.3 units out

• Aaron Gordon over 3.5 Assists @ 1.83 with B365 – 1.2 units
• Aaron Gordon over 4.5 Assists @ 2.85 with B365 – 0.4 units
• Aaron Gordon over 5.5 Assists @ 4.20 with TAB – 0.2 units
• Aaron Gordon over 6.5 Assists @ 7.75 with B365 – 0.1 units
• Aaron Gordon over 7.5 Assists @ 12.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units
• Nikola Vucevic over 35.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.85 with TAB – 1.3 units
• Nikola Vucevic over 29.5 Points @ 7.50 with B365 – 0.2 units
• Willie Cauley-Stein over 6.5 Rebounds @ 1.70 with Topsport – 1 unit
• Trek Burke over 2.5 3 Pointers @ 2.55 with B365 – 0.6 units
• Trek Burke over 3.5 3 Pointers @ 4.80 with TAB – 0.1 units
• Trek Burke over 4.5 3 Pointers @ 10.00 with TAB – 0.1 units
• Jordan Clarkson over 17.5 Points @ 1.93 with Topsport – 1 unit
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