Our Professional NBA Tips, Analysis & Staking Plan 15/3

Dec 30, 2019; Chicago, Illinois, USA; Chicago Bulls forward Lauri Markkanen (24) reacts after scoring against the Milwaukee Bucks during the first half at United Center. Mandatory Credit: Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports

Pre Break:

• 79.28 Units Profit
• 20.32% ROI

Post Break:

• 1.52 Units Loss
• -13.07% ROI
• View Results Spreadsheets

Hawks vs Cavs 10:40am

Bunch of things lining up for Collins here today. Gets a gun matchup against the Cavs who have given up the most points in the league to centres over the past month and he should be getting his minutes exclusively at the 5 today with no Capela or Okongwu. We’ve got a really large sample of Collins at the 5 now with 487 minutes and he has an awesome 25.3/10.6/1.3 per 36 line with a 4% usage bump as he’ll be Trae’s primary roll man instead of Capela. The sample gets a little smaller at 231 minutes, but with Gallo at the 4 and Collins at the 5 he’s been even better at 26.4 points per 36.

• John Collins over 19.5 Points @ 1.85 with Sportsbet – 1.1 units

Raptors vs Bulls 12:10pm

Line has come down a few points from when I had it circled last night which is a little surprising as this is an awesome spot for Lauri. Mentioned it yesterday how bad this Raptors defence has been and they were awful again yesterday with the Hornets putting up 114 points whilst committing a ridiculous 28 turnovers. Was watching this game closely and the majority of these were not forced turnovers just sloppy play from the Hornets who were up big early. They finished the game shooting 48.8% from the field and 42.9% from 3 despite a 16 point 4th quarter in garbage time. Looks like Young is starting in Carter’s place today which if you remember back to earlier in the season was a very profitable set-up for us as Lauri thrives next to him. With Wendell/Gafford off the court and Young on, Lauri puts up 24.6 points per 36 with a 71.6% eFG which is a dramatic increase from the 18.6 points per 36 and 55.3% eFG% Lauri has with Wendell on and Young off. Not really sure why we are getting a number below his season average of 19.4 here (only 30.2 minutes, should play 33-36 today) but more than happy to take it. He’s covered this in both games back from injury in tough matchups against Philly and Miami and was nice to see him get up to 33 minutes in his latest game so would think he plays even more than that. Probably partially baked into the Young/Carter numbers as that’s how the Bulls rotation has shaken out, but he also gets a 4.2% usage bump with with Sato on, Coby off putting up a stupid 34 points per 36 in a 58 minute sample. His splits are also a touch better at home, averaging 20.1 vs 18.0 on the road.

• Lauri Markkanen over 17.5 Points @ 1.85 with TAB – 1.5 units
• Lauri Markkanen over 24.5 Points @ 4.50 with TAB – 0.3 units
• Lauri Markkanen over 29.5 Points @ 12.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units

Raptors just really didn’t have it yesterday and the tracking stats aren’t up but there had to have been in the low 20s potentials through just 3 quarters including a few blown layups. On a b2b and away from home is a setup I routinely avoid, but it is the identical setup to when the Raptors versed the Celtics coming off the blowout loss to the Pistons the night before where he played 40 minutes with a career high 19 dimes. Can’t have too much on here and am heavily skewing the alts incase as if it is going to stay close they need to hit shots, and almost all the shots created on this team currently are off Lowry so they are highly correlated. Getting a really nice price on the 12+ here which he’s covered in 2 of the last 3. The role is just so fkn good and the Bulls have given up the 7th most assists to PGs this season.

• Kyle Lowry over 11.5 Assists @ 3.00 with TAB – 0.9 units
• Kyle Lowry over 13.5 Assists @ 6.00 with TAB – 0.1 units

Staking Plan – 4.0 units out

• John Collins over 19.5 Points @ 1.85 with Sportsbet – 1.1 units
• Lauri Markkanen over 17.5 Points @ 1.85 with TAB – 1.5 units
• Lauri Markkanen over 24.5 Points @ 4.50 with TAB – 0.3 units
• Lauri Markkanen over 29.5 Points @ 12.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units
• Kyle Lowry over 11.5 Assists @ 3.00 with TAB – 0.9 units
• Kyle Lowry over 13.5 Assists @ 6.00 with TAB – 0.1 units
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