Our Professional NBA Tips, Analysis & Staking Plan 15/1

Season Results:

• 56 Wins / 91 Losses
• 13.76 Units Profit
• +14.78% ROI
• View Results Spreadsheets

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76ers vs Heat 11:10am AEST

**I’m betting 3 pointers here because as Heat are so undermanned, the best chance they have at winning this game is by getting up a lot of 3’s and hoping for a good variance night. And Joel is scary in the paint. We saw a glimpse of it last game where they got up a pretty crazy 56 3 pointers, up massively from the 37.2 they average this season. 8 man rotation means these guys have to play, regardless of game script which is always nice to know as minutes generally = production. 

Tough game to sort through on the Miami side with so many different plausible options, but happy to make Duncan our main bet here. He has the greenest of green lights with so many guys out and they just run so much different stuff for him. Led the team in minutes playing 40 in regulation and I’d expect the same here. Managed to get up 13 3 pointers which was an equal season high which is more than enough to cover this base line. He’s one of the best shooters in the league and with the team missing so much of their firepower, it makes complete sense for him to get up as many as possible. Volume will be there, so it would be silly not to have some exposure to his alts even though we aren’t getting amazing prices as he’s certainly capable of getting hot.

• Duncan Robinson over 3.5 3 Pointers @ 1.72 with Sportsbet – 1.1 units
• Duncan Robinson over 4.5 3 Pointers @ 2.70 with Sportsbet – 0.4 units
• Duncan Robinson over 6.5 3 Pointers @ 7.00 with TAB – 0.1 units

Bit annoyed I let him slip through last game, but we are still getting a big price here. He actually looked really good and I was taken back by how confident he was shooting from 3. He got up 12 attempts all in regulation so he clearly isn’t shy, and going back to last season he played just 9 games with the Heat, but got up 3.2 attempts in just 9.2 minutes per. I’ve gone back and had a look at his college numbers, and he shot 37.6% over his 4 year career on a pretty solid 5.7 a game. 50.5% of his points over his college career came from 3, so he is certainly comfortable from behind the arc. I’m expecting just over 30 mins from him here, but he could be a beneficiary of garbage time if there is any, as they only have 8 players and I assume it would be Iggy, Herro & Drob who get the bench spots.

• Gabe Vincent over 2.5 3 Pointers @ 2.50 with B365 – 1 unit
• Gabe Vincent over 3.5 3 Pointers @ 5.50 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units
• Gabe Vincent over 4.5 3 Pointers @ 13.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units

Similarly to Vincent, Strus scored 48% of his college points from behind the arc and he came out chucking getting up 6 3 pointers in his 23 mins. He looked super active and was really working hard to get around screen to get himself open and the way Miami play with their big men generating a lot of offence, could get some clean looks here. With Philly back pretty close to full strength, he could be another garbage time beneficiary.

• Max Strus over 1.5 3 Pointers @ 3.05 with B365 – 0.3 units
• Max Strus over 2.5 3 Pointers @ 7.50 with B365 – 0.1 units
• Max Strus over 3.5 3 Pointers @ 12.00 with B365 – 0.1 units

Spurs vs Rockets 11:40am AEST

So much opportunity for a bunch of these Rockets guys, but none of them aren’t the best per minute producers (Obviously Wood is but his line is very high in a game I struggle to see them being able to keep close). I’ve settled on McLemore here as he has the highest usage rate of the available Guard/Wings this season at 21.6% and although 100% of his buckets this season have been assisted, he’s not going to be shy getting his shots up. He’s shot 58.8% from 3 through the 3 games he’s played so far so although he won’t be able to keep that up, his per 36 line of 23.4/5.1/2.9 should have him well and truly clearing this as I expect him to be playing somewhere around 32.

• Ben McLemore over 19.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.90 with TAB – 1 unit
• Ben McLemore over 29.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 9.00 with TAB – 0.1 units

Pacers vs Blazers 2:10pm AEST

We may be a little lucky he shot so poorly the other night against the Warriors to keep this line down a touch, but he gets a great matchup here against the Blazers who have given up the 6th most points to PGs this season. It was the second night of a back to back so he only played 33 minutes, and could never really get himself going just 5-18 from the field. He’s a much better player than that and I’d expect him to bounce back here in a much more favourable matchup. Dimes were there with 8 and I’ve already mentioned previously how many potentials a game he is creating, so feel pretty confident they show up again with some upside. Minutes should be back up to the high 30’s and if he’s going to lead the team in usage again (25.6%) he should be covering this and some with no Oladipo.

• Malcom Brogdon over 29.5 Points + Assists @ 1.83 with B365 – 1.4 units
• Malcom Brogdon over 29.5 Points @ 5.20 with TAB – 0.1 units

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Staking Plan – 5.9 units out

• Duncan Robinson over 3.5 3 Pointers @ 1.72 with Sportsbet – 1.1 units
• Duncan Robinson over 4.5 3 Pointers @ 2.70 with Sportsbet – 0.4 units
• Duncan Robinson over 6.5 3 Pointers @ 7.00 with TAB – 0.1 units
• Gabe Vincent over 2.5 3 Pointers @ 2.50 with B365 – 1 unit
• Gabe Vincent over 3.5 3 Pointers @ 5.50 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units
• Gabe Vincent over 4.5 3 Pointers @ 13.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units
• Max Strus over 1.5 3 Pointers @ 3.05 with B365 – 0.3 units
• Max Strus over 2.5 3 Pointers @ 7.50 with B365 – 0.1 units
• Max Strus over 3.5 3 Pointers @ 12.00 with B365 – 0.1 units
• Ben McLemore over 19.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.90 with TAB – 1 unit
• Ben McLemore over 29.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 9.00 with TAB – 0.1 units
• Malcom Brogdon over 29.5 Points + Assists @ 1.83 with B365 – 1.4 units
• Malcom Brogdon over 29.5 Points @ 5.20 with TAB – 0.1 units
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