Our Professional NBA Tips, Analysis & Staking Plan 14/3

Pre Break:

• 79.28 Units Profit
• 20.32% ROI

Post Break:

• 2.87 Units Profit
• 39.32% ROI
• View Results Spreadsheets

Raptors vs Hornets 11:10am

This line really is getting up there but jeez he could honestly challenge the career high 19 dimes he got against the Celtics. The role is absolutely insane at the moment up at 8.4 minutes of touch time over his last 2 games (5.1 for the season), creating a ridiculous 55 potential assists across that span which has resulted in 31 dimes. Same set of guys are out here so nothing should change role wise put he gets an absolute dream matchup against the Hornets. Since LaMelo has taken the reigns they have really been flying up and down the court at the leagues 3rd fastest pace over the last 10 games and pair that with the 24th ranked defence in the same span you get an awesome environment to attack. Hornets allow 28.2 assists per game which is the most in the league, with a ton of them coming at the PG position where they give up the second most. This is going to be a lovely game to attack and will likely have something else in the morning, but keen to lock this in now.

• Kyle Lowry over 10.5 Assists @ 1.87 with TAB – 1.2 units
• Kyle Lowry over 13.5 Assists @ 4.50 with TAB – 0.2 units

Don’t usually bet totals but noticed this was set at 229.5 which just seems too low. Raptors have given up 129,132,121 in the 3 games since the COVID protocols hit at a 125.2 defensive rating with a 101 pace. Their offence has been good too with 105,125,120 and they shouldn’t have any trouble scoring on the Hornets as mentioned above.

• Raptors vs Hornets over 229.5 Points @ 1.90 with Sportsbet – 1.3 units
• Raptors vs Hornets over 249.5 Points @ 6.50 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units

Wizards vs Bucks 11:10am

He’s been quite inconsistent making his scoring hard to trust, but he’s a really good rebounder and he’s moved into the starting line-up today which should set him up for somewhere in the mid 30 minutes. Bucks will likely have their way with the Wizards but it’s been a struggle all season to find Deni playing time so it would make sense if they keep him out there for garbage time so I’m not too concerned on that front. Bucks consistently play at a one of the leagues fastest paces which allows for some extra rebounding chances so although they are one of the best teams in the league, they allow around league average rebounds. Deni averages 7.7 boards per 36 so 29 minutes at that rate in an average matchup gets him there, but I think he ends up closer to 35. Has covered this in 3 of his last 4, coming off the bench playing 25,24,24,28 in some tougher matchups.

• Deni Avdija over 5.5 Rebounds @ 1.90 with TAB – 1 unit

Wolves vs Blazers 12:10pm

Was really hoping we’d get 2.5 here but getting the nice odds at least. He had a huge breakout game against the Pels with 28/5/6 and he looked awesome. He’s shown flashes this season and gets a nice chance to back up that effort against the leagues 28th ranked defence in Portland. Without McLoughlin, I thought Rubio might get some extended run but it was Nowell who was the biggest beneficiary who soaked up the back-up PG minutes with a huge spike in touch time up to 4.2 minutes (averages 1.1). Part of this may have been because he was scorching hot but I do think the role is sustainable. I have written about McLoughlin a few times and how he’s a good source of dimes, as playing in this second unit Naz Reid is both a pick and pop threat and a strong rolling threat who’s extremely active making a good target for the second unit PG. Got a little lucky with some hot shooting from the Wolves to finish with 6 dimes from his 10 potentials, but he did get his guys some good looks around the rim.

• Jaylen Nowell over 3.5 Assists @ 2.40 with B365 – 0.5 units
• Jaylen Nowell over 5.5 Assists @ 7.00 with TAB – 0.1 units

Staking Plan – 4.4 units out

• Kyle Lowry over 10.5 Assists @ 1.87 with TAB – 1.2 units
• Kyle Lowry over 13.5 Assists @ 4.50 with TAB – 0.2 units
• Raptors vs Hornets over 229.5 Points @ 1.90 with Sportsbet – 1.3 units
• Raptors vs Hornets over 249.5 Points @ 6.50 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units

• Deni Avdija over 5.5 Rebounds @ 1.90 with TAB – 1 unit
• Jaylen Nowell over 3.5 Assists @ 2.40 with B365 – 0.5 units
• Jaylen Nowell over 5.5 Assists @ 7.00 with TAB – 0.1 units
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