Our Professional NBA Tips, Analysis & Staking Plan 14/2

Season Results:

• 150 Wins / 270 Losses
• 94.01 Units Profit
• +41.18% ROI
• View Results Spreadsheets

Hornets vs Spurs 11:10am AEST

Quite like this spot for Derrick here. They’ve been extremely cautious with him coming back from his injury but he should be more than ready for this one after only playing 16 minutes over the last 5 days. I’d expect to see him around the 28 minute mark here which should be more than enough to cover this line. This Spurs starting unit has very limited shooting (even less now with Jakob in the line-up), so while he’s out there with them it’s important he takes 3’s to open up the floor. He’s only shooting 30.6% from behind the arc, but he’s a more than capable shooter as he showed us in the bubble where he went 22-56 (39.3%) across a 7 game stretch which is very high volume. He’s seen a big bump in attempts so far this season, averaging 5.1 per game in just 23.1 minutes. This accounts for 50.7% of his FGA which is a huge increase from the 39.4% he was at last season. Awesome matchup for him today against the Hornets who allow the 3rd most 3 pointers in the league.

• Derrick White over 1.5 3 Pointers @ 1.74 with Topsport – 1.3 units
• Derrick White over 2.5 3 Pointers @ 3.50 with Sportsbet – 0.3 units

Wolves vs Raptors 11:10am AEST

D’Angelo is out again which means Rubio will stay in the starting line-up and McLaughlin will come in as his back-up. Jordan is a more than capable player and it’s still a little hard to believe he didn’t get any offers in the off-season. I’ve got Rubio pencilled in for 28 minutes and Jordan 22 (2 minute overlap), but there are a few paths for more minutes for him. If Wolves come out sluggish Saunders has often been quick to make line-up changes and he’s more than happy rolling with the hot hand, and while I don’t fully trust this Raptors team, the game has an 8 point spread so maybe we have some blow-out potential too where Jordan would play. He hasn’t really seen much of a run this season but he’s been good when he’s out there, averaging 0.25 assists per minute which puts him right at 5.0 if he see’s 20 which he really should. He played 18 against the Clippers 2 back where he finished with 6 dimes and then got up to 22 last game against the Hornets finishing with 7 dimes. He’s creating a ton of potentials with 12.5 per game over the last 2 and gets a fine matchup here against the Raptors who allow the 4th most assists overall and the 6th most assists to opposing PGs.

• Jordan McLaughlin over 3.5 Assists @ 1.68 with B365 – 1 unit
• Jordan McLaughlin over 4.5 Assists @ 2.40 with B365 – 0.6 units
• Jordan McLaughlin over 6.5 Assists @ 7.00 with B365 – 0.1 units

Mavs vs Blazers 11:40am AEST

Locking these ones in now as more often than not these type of lines in potential high scoring games tend to go up a point or two. It took him a little while to get going but it looks like KP is back (on the offensive side of the ball at least) after popping for a season high 36 points against the Pels. He’s been super aggressive of late and his usage rate come right up to 30.0% over his last 6 (27.6% for the season, was 26.3% last season). His game log is a little weird over that span with a game of 25 minutes (blowout) and a game of 19 minutes (foul trouble) but he’s been super productive while he’s been out there and he’s averaging 30.0 points per 36 over the last 6. His minute upside probably isn’t 36, but he got up to 34 minutes in back to back games 2 weeks ago so I’d assume he gets around that mark here. Gets an absolute dream matchup against the Blazers who have given up the most points to opposing centres over the course of the season (2nd most over the last 2 weeks). Let’s hope he can stay out of foul trouble because he should absolutely smash here.

• Kristaps Porzingis over 21.5 Points @ 1.84 with Topsport – 1.4 units
• Kristaps Porzingis over 29.5 Points @ 5.50 with Sportsbet – 0.3 units
• Kristaps Porzingis over 34.5 Points @ 18.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units

Such good spots for all the main guys here as we have the 26th ranked defence against the 27th ranked defence for the season coming up against each other.

• Kristaps Porzingis over 24.5 Points / Luka Doncic over 29.5 Points / Damian Lillard over 29.5 Points / Damian Lillard over 7.5 Assists @ 12.75 with Sportsbet – 0.3 units

Bucks vs Thunder 12:10pm AEST

He’s a score first guy and playmaking isn’t really part of his game at this point, but the opportunity is going to be there for him and these prices are worth having a crack at. Over the last 2 games without Shai, Dort has been super aggressive with 15.5 drives per game and although he has been looking to score, he’s going to find that extremely difficult today against the strong Bucks interior defence so he may have to look to kick it out. He leads the team in touch time over the last 2 games as well at 4.6 minutes which is way up from the 1.5 for the season and he showed he’s capable 2 back against the Lakers when he had 4 dimes. Got a little unlucky last game with just the 1 assists from 6 potentials.

• Lu Dort over 2.5 Assists @ 3.31 with Topsport – 0.6 units
• Lu Dort over 3.5 Assists @ 7.26 with Topsport – 0.2 units

Kings vs Grizzlies 2:10pm AEST

Was massive let down for us against the Hornets after such a strong start but has since turned in another impressive game against the Lakers with 22/8. He’s now averaging 21/12.5 over the 4 game stretch since he’s come back which included a 24 minute and a 28 minute game. Looks like his set rotation will be around the 32 minute mark which should be more than enough to clear this line in a matchup as good as it gets for him. The Kings allow the 3rd most points and the most rebounds to centres on the season. They also allow the most points in the paint which is where JV does the majority of his work. He takes 67% of his attempts at the rim, where the Kings have the 25th ranked defene and 27% of his attempts from floater range where the Kings have the 24th ranked defence. They also allow the 2nd most put-backs in the league where JV can do some damage.

• Jonas Valanciunas over 28.5 Points + Rebounds @ 1.83 with B365 – 1.3 units
• Jonas Valanciunas over 39.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 4.75 with TAB – 0.3 units

Cavs vs Clippers 2:10pm AEST

Bit of a shame about the matchup here as it’s hard to launch into this but we won’t get many opportunities to bet this as Drummond has been so durable throughout his career. He is out today though which means Allen will be the lone centre and should be set for big minutes here which is great news for both Garland and Sexton as they both get 4.3% usage bumps with Drummond off and Allen on. I’ve mentioned in an article previously how Drummond is assisted on dramatically less made baskets than Allen and we now have a decent 136 minute sample of Garland/Allen sharing the court in which time Garland is averaging 6.9 dimes per 36.

• Darius Garland over 4.5 Assists @ 1.72 with TAB – 1 unit
• Darius Garland over 5.5 Assists @ 2.40 with TAB – 0.2 units
• Darius Garland over 7.5 Assists @ 6.00 with TAB – 0.1 units
• Darius Garland over 9.5 Assists @ 15.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units

Taurean Prince also sees a big bump without Drummond, and should be heading for a ton of playing time here with the Cavs being so short at the 4. He has a 181 minute sample with Allen and no Drummond and is averaging 4.0 dimes per 36. I’m not convinced about his minutes but he has had 4 or more assists in 4/4 games he’s played 28+ minutes. Main bet is on Garland and I don’t want to be over-exposed to this game but at this price we need to have a bit on.

• Taurean Prince over 3.5 Assists @ 5.50 – 0.4 units

Staking Plan – 9.6 units out

• Jordan McLaughlin over 3.5 Assists @ 1.68 with B365 – 1 unit
• Jordan McLaughlin over 4.5 Assists @ 2.40 with B365 – 0.6 units
• Jordan McLaughlin over 6.5 Assists @ 7.00 with B365 – 0.1 units
• Derrick White over 1.5 3 Pointers @ 1.74 with Topsport – 1.3 units
• Derrick White over 2.5 3 Pointers @ 3.50 with Sportsbet – 0.3 units
• Kristaps Porzingis over 21.5 Points @ 1.84 with Topsport – 1.4 units
• Kristaps Porzingis over 29.5 Points @ 5.50 with Sportsbet – 0.3 units
• Kristaps Porzingis over 34.5 Points @ 18.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units
• Kristaps Porzingis over 24.5 Points / Luka Doncic over 29.5 Points / Damian Lillard over 29.5 Points / Damian Lillard over 7.5 Assists @ 12.75 with Sportsbet – 0.3 units
• Lu Dort over 2.5 Assists @ 3.31 with Topsport – 0.6 units
• Lu Dort over 3.5 Assists @ 7.26 with Topsport – 0.2 units
• Jonas Valanciunas over 28.5 Points + Rebounds @ 1.83 with B365 – 1.3 units
• Jonas Valanciunas over 39.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 4.75 with TAB – 0.3 units
• Darius Garland over 4.5 Assists @ 1.72 with TAB – 1 unit
• Darius Garland over 5.5 Assists @ 2.40 with TAB – 0.2 units
• Darius Garland over 7.5 Assists @ 6.00 with TAB – 0.1 units
• Darius Garland over 9.5 Assists @ 15.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units
• Taurean Prince over 3.5 Assists @ 5.50 – 0.4 units
• Click Here To Get Top Odds With TopSport