Our Professional NBA Tips, Analysis & Staking Plan 14/1

Season Results:

• 56 Wins / 91 Losses
• 13.76 Units Profit
• +14.78% ROI
• View Results Spreadsheets

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Bucks vs Pistons 11:10am AEST

I’m happy to give him one more chance here. Got up to 36 minutes last game without Rose or Hayes which was awesome to see. Didn’t come through for us, finishing with 14 PRA but he missed some absolute bunnies finishing 2-9. He was extremely passive which was a bit frustrating but he has it in him to be a scorer, with games of 16, 18 & 19 this season. I’m not worried about the supporting stats, with some upside in both categories I’m just hoping he comes out aggressive against the worst PNR ball handler defence in the league. Despite having a strong defence, the Bucks have given up the most points to PGs this season. Sets up nicely for Delon and the opportunity should be there, just hoping he’s more aggressive than last game.

• Delon Wright over 17.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.95 with TAB –  1 unit
• Delon Wright over 24.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 6.00 with TAB –  0.1 units
• Delon Wright over 29.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 17.00 with TAB –  0.1 units

Nets vs Knicks 11:40am AEST

Betting KD on a B2B is a little risky but it sounds like he’s going to suit and the role for him is going to be amazing without Kyrie and Levert today. It’s only a 28 minute sample without those two, but he managed to rack up 10 dimes. He’s coming off a crazy 13 dime game against the Nuggets and although he was a little lucky as he had just 17 potentials, 17 is a lot for a 6.5 line with the shooting he has around him. He had 5.6 minutes of touch time yesterday, which was up 63% from his season average of 3.7 minutes. Levert played in that one, and was second on the team with 5.4 minutes of touch time, so that will have to go somewhere leaving some more possible upside for KD. Would have looved this to be 5.5 but still a strong play.

• Kevin Durant over 6.5 Assists @ 2.01 with Sportsbet – 1.4 units
• Kevin Durant over 9.5 Assists @ 5.50 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units
• Kevin Durant over 11.5 Assists @ 14.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units

Wolves vs Grizzlies 12:10am AEST

Would probably be a 2u bet if I had some more confidence in his minutes, as he only played 20 in his return but the move back into the starting line-up is a very positive sign. In the opening 2 games he averaged 17 PRA in 31.5 minutes and had a nice return with 6/4 in just 20 mins. He has a per 36 line of 11.3/5.3/1.9 and is shooting just 12.5% from 3 indicating some more upside. He was even more productive last year, with a per 36 line of 12.4/6.2/2.3. Saunders has been raving about his defence and this team absolutely needs it so I’m banking on him being able to play north of 25 here, possibly pushing into the 30s.

• Josh Okogie over 11.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.76 with B365 – 1.3 units
• Josh Okogie over 14.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 2.70 with TAB – 0.3 units

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Staking Plan – 4.2 units out

• Delon Wright over 17.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.95 with TAB –  1 unit
• Delon Wright over 24.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 6.00 with TAB –  0.1 units
• Delon Wright over 29.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 17.00 with TAB –  0.1 units
• Kevin Durant over 6.5 Assists @ 2.01 with Sportsbet – 1.4 units
• Kevin Durant over 9.5 Assists @ 5.50 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units
• Kevin Durant over 11.5 Assists @ 14.00 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units
• Josh Okogie over 11.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 1.76 with B365 – 1.3 units
• Josh Okogie over 14.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists @ 2.70 with TAB – 0.3 units
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