Our Professional NBA Tips, Analysis & Staking Plan 15/5

Results:

• 89.16 Units Profit
• 16.75% ROI

• View Results Spreadsheets

Cavs vs Wizards 9:10am AEST

Really like this bounce back spot for Rui. He see’s a nice 6% usage bump without Beal putting up 19.7 points per 36. I was close to making him a bet last game but his minutes had been a little choppy. Brooks doesn’t really like playing Bertans and Rui together so Bertans closed ahead of him last game, but starting them both is a huge plus for both of them as they’ll likely both be able to push into the 30s now and likely both close the game. No Neto means opens up some more minutes too. Gets a great matchup against this awful 28th ranked Cavs defence.

• Rui Hachimura over 15.5 Points @ 1.88 with Sportsbet – 1 unit

Magic vs 76ers 10:10am AEST

This Magic offence continues to just be absolutely brutal with a 99.9 O Rating over the last 2 weeks for 29th in the league. Since the ASB, they have just a 101.6 O Rating on the road (105.2 at home) and they are coming up against a Philly team who has just been so dominant at home this season. Philly’s D Rating of 107.0 for the season doesn’t see a dip on b2b’s at 106.8 and I’d expect them to really try get themselves back on track here with a big win. They just need 1 win to lock up the 1 seed so if they can get that done today they can take the last game off. It’s hard to use the Magic’s b2b numbers for the season as there have been so many personnel changes. Both of these teams are about mid pack in terms of pace, but with them both on a b2b we could see it really slow down here which obviously plays into the hands of Philly’s 2nd ranked half-court defence. Don’t think he plays but Thybulle would obviously be a big in.

• Orlando Magic UNDER 99.5 Points @ 1.92 with Topsport – 1 unit

Grizzlies vs Kings 11:10am AEST

He’s cooled off a bit but it’s hard not to love this spot for him. We’ve got a nice sample of 314 minutes with no JV, Ja or Brooks and he has crushed with a 7.3% usage bump with an awesome 21.5/5.4/5.0 per 36 line. Only played 16 minutes last night and I’m sure Jenkins would love to get him going again heading into the big games coming up. Been a nice development him playing on ball so much this season and he’s dramatically improved his efficiency with a jump from 46.5% to 55.0% eFG. Going to be a fast pace game with both these teams emphasising running and Melton should have the freedom to do as he please. There’s going to be some big lines in this game.

Ugh, had this half written up but wanted to get the Rui bet out early enough before the Wiz game but in the meantime have been beaten to it and odds have been ruined for the PRA. Still a really strong pivot on his PA line.

• De’Anthony Melton over 18.5 Points + Assists @ 1.74 with B365 – 1.4 units

Getting decent odds here for Tyus. He’s at 7.7 dimes per 36 without the main 3 guys and it really is a great matchup. I’m not sure if he’s going to see extended run here so don’t want to have too much on but has a stack of upside and is a little hedge if Melton doesn’t get many on ball reps.

• Tyus Jones over 9.5 Assists @ 6.50 with Sportsbet – 0.2 units

Staking Plan – 3.6 units out

• Rui Hachimura over 15.5 Points @ 1.88 with Sportsbet – 1 unit
• Orlando Magic UNDER 99.5 Points @ 1.92 with Topsport – 1 unit
• De’Anthony Melton over 18.5 Points + Assists @ 1.74 with B365 – 1.4 units
• Tyus Jones over 9.5 Assists @ 6.50 with Sportsbet – 0.2 units

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