Our Professional NBA Tips, Analysis & Staking Plan 13/3

Mar 11, 2021; Sacramento, California, USA; Houston Rockets guard Kevin Porter Jr. (3) dunks the ball against the Sacramento Kings during the second quarter at Golden 1 Center. Mandatory Credit: Sergio Estrada-USA TODAY Sports

Season Results:

• 203 Wins / 422 Losses
• 91.07 Units Profit
• +27.09% ROI
• View Results Spreadsheets

Heat vs Bulls 1:10pm

Fumbled a rebound late to get to 30 PRA yesterday but I’m just coming back for the dimes here as it’s hard to think he keeps this efficiency up scoring and the volume isn’t huge. May be a little bit of a cool off spot for him on the b2b, but it is a nice matchup. He is such a capable passer and although the role wasn’t great yesterday, he threw 2 awesome passes resulting in dimes and we might see him back in the role he had against the Pelicans who have a more similar defensive scheme to the Bulls today. He’s playing big minutes and I just think these are the wrong prices as he’s played 30+ minutes 10 times this season and had 4+ dimes in 5 of them. Also has 4+ in 3 of the 4 games Bam hasn’t played.

• Kelly Olynyk over 3.5 Assists @ 4.50 with Sportsbet – 0.3 units
• Kelly Olynyk over 4.5 Assists @ 7.00 with B365 – 0.1 units

Spurs vs Magic 1:10pm

Man it has been a brutal season for Derrick White. Came into the season with a broken toe, played one game, broke his toe again, slowly looked to be finding some rhythm exploding for 25/2/4 in just 26 minutes against the Hornets before being stuck in COVID protocols missing 5 games before the ASB. He is so talented so it’s a shame he’s had such a disjointed season but I really think he’s going to crush the second half (really nice buy low guy for those that play season long). Spurs reporting on the  COVID breakout hasn’t been very good so I’m not actually sure if he had it or not which would just make this nightmare season worse so I’m a little hesitant today, but with Demar out he really should crush and he’s had a game to get his legs back under him now. We’ve only got a 72 minute sample of him this season without Demar and Aldridge on the court and he gets a 4.7% usage bump right up to 28.0 posting a really strong 22.3/6.4 per 36 line. That line comes on just 40% shooting so there is some upside there too. He’s taking 8.4 3 pointers per 36 in that sample making 3.0 and it’s hard to imagine he gets to 20 PA (his 14.5 Points line vs 1.5 3 point line is a bit of a misprice considering he is taking 51.1% of his shots from behind the arc and 45% of his total points coming from behind) without knocking down a couple of trey’s so making that the bet today against a Magic team who give up the 6th most 3 point attempts in the league. Can get hot.

• Derrick White over 1.5 3 Pointers @ 1.88 with Topsport – 1.1 units
• Derrick White over 2.5 3 Pointers @ 3.75 with Sportsbet – 0.3 units
• Derrick White over 3.5 3 Pointers @ 9.50 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units

Rockets vs Jazz 2:10pm

Dude is just crazy talented and you can tell straight away he belongs out there. It is a shame they have to come up against the Jazz and their 2nd ranked defence here but the setup is just way too good to pass up on. Rockets are an absolute mess right now but KPJ is the shining light and he is going to get every chance to prove himself today after a really solid debut yesterday with 13/5/10/3/1 in 29 minutes. They are down to 8 guys here missing their top 4 leaders in usage (Wall 31.8%, Oladipo 30.7%, Wood 26.3%, Gordon 24.6%) so naturally there are going to be plenty of shots available. Kelly Iko wrote an awesome piece for the Athletic (linked below) not too long ago about the Rockets plans to transition KPJ into a PG and the returns from the G league bubble were extremely promising as he averaged a really strong 24.1/6.5/7.2 in 36 minutes across his 15 games. He did get a little lucky yesterday with 10 dimes from just 13 potentials, but the role was awesome with 5.5 minutes of touch time in under 30 minutes. Expect that to skyrocket today as Oladipo had 6.1 and Gordon 2.5 who are both out, with the next highest being Tate at 1.5. This game will blow out but it’s hard to imagine he won’t stay out there for garbage time so I’m not concerned about his minutes and could get some easy stats in the 4th quarter once Utah has taken the foot off the gas. Obviously a tiny tiny sample here but it’s all we’ve got, he had 3 dimes in just 7 minutes while Oladipo and Gordon were both off the court yesterday, and 6 dimes in the 12 minutes while just Oladipo was off. Obviously completely different opposition (goes both ways as he also has more talented shooters around him now), but he covered this line in 10 of his last 14 G League games, with 10+ in 3 of them including 12 and 14 dime games. I do really like his PRA line here too but I’m taking the dimes as the main bet. Lead guards have actually fared fine against the Jazz over the last 2 weeks allowing around league average dimes. Simmons had 6, Lonzo 8, MCW 7, Butler 8 over the last 4.

• Kevin Porter Jr over 5.5 Assists @ 2.20 with B365 – 1.2 units
• Kevin Porter Jr over 6.5 Assists @ 3.25 with B365 – 0.3 units
• Kevin Porter Jr over 9.5 Assists / Jazz win @ 13.25 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units
• Kevin Porter Jr over 24.5 Points @ 5.50 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units

https://theathletic.com/2402574/2021/02/22/the-rockets-plan-for-kevin-porter-jr-patience-progress-and-playmaking/

Staking Plan – 3.6 units out

• Kelly Olynyk over 3.5 Assists @ 4.50 with Sportsbet – 0.3 units
• Kelly Olynyk over 4.5 Assists @ 7.00 with B365 – 0.1 units
• Derrick White over 1.5 3 Pointers @ 1.88 with Topsport – 1.1 units
• Derrick White over 2.5 3 Pointers @ 3.75 with Sportsbet – 0.3 units
• Derrick White over 3.5 3 Pointers @ 9.50 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units
• Kevin Porter Jr over 5.5 Assists @ 2.20 with B365 – 1.2 units
• Kevin Porter Jr over 6.5 Assists @ 3.25 with B365 – 0.3 units
• Kevin Porter Jr over 9.5 Assists / Jazz win @ 13.25 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units
• Kevin Porter Jr over 24.5 Points @ 5.50 with Sportsbet – 0.1 units
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