Our Professional NBA Tips, Analysis & Staking Plan 13/1

Season Results:

• 52 Wins / 87 Losses
• 12.36 Units Profit
• +13.97% ROI
• View Results Spreadsheets

Jazz vs Cavs 11:40am AEST

Easily the biggest beneficiary of Ingles not playing. Sucks about the matchup here, but still a great play. He’s averaging 16.8 on the season which is pretty remarkable in just 23.9 minutes but with Ingles ruled out here, I think we’re going to see a big minute bump here. He’s just a flat out scorer so any extra minutes will lead to extra shots for him and he’s at a pretty crazy 28.1 points per 36 this season. Quin Snyder doesn’t have much trust in his bench and we got a good glimpse of that against the Bucks when Ingles missed and he went with an 8 man rotation. Clarkson actually led the team in minutes there playing a whopping 34:45. He got up 20 shots and finished with 26 points. Matchup kills a bit of the upside.

• Jordan Clarkson over 15.5 Points @ 1.88 with Topsport – 1.4 units
• Jordan Clarkson over 24.5 Points @ 6.50 with TAB – 0.1 units

Nuggets vs Nets 11:40am AEST

Smash spot for Allen here. He’s been awesome since moving into the starting line-up, covering this in all 4 games averaging 15.3 points in 30.9 minutes. Opportunity will certainly be there for him again today and he gets a good matchup against the Nuggets who have allowed the 8th most points to centres this season. Where it gets real interesting is the Nuggets allow by far the most points per possession to the pick and roll man at 1.53 PPP. Next worst is OKC at 1.44. Allen is a very good roll man scoring 1.46 PPP which is 12th in the league, but he has the highest frequency of that 12 at 30.6%. He takes 74% of his shots at the rim, which is 87th percentile and so far this season the Nuggets have the 2nd worst rim defence, allowing 71.4%. Has scored 15 3 of his last 4.

• Jarrett Allen over 11.5 Points @ 1.74 with B365 – 1.2 units
• Jarrett Allen over 14.5 Points @ 2.70 with TAB – 0.3 units

Spurs vs Thunder 12:10pm AEST

Small sample of the one game without Demar but boy was Lonnie impressive. It was a cupcake matchup for him but he was so aggressive and looked awesome en route to 25 points in 30 minutes. He was hot so it’s not a surprise to see him have a team high usage, but 33.3% is absolutely massive considering he should play 30+ minutes (tiny bit concerned about the hamstring but they haven’t said anything about it so I am assuming it is fine) and this line is 12.5. It’s not the perfect matchup for him as OKC defence has been pretty solid, especially at the guard positions with Shai/Dort but I think Dort will go to Dejounte to start. He’s coming off a 25 points game and we’re getting 19.00 for him to do it again. Worth something.

• Lonnie Walker over 12.5 Points @ 1.83 with B365 – 1.1 units
• Lonnie Walker over 14.5 Points @ 2.50 with B365 – 0.3 units
• Lonnie Walker over 19.5 Points @ 6.00 with TAB – 0.1 units
• Lonnie Walker over 24.5 Points @ 19.00 with TAB – 0.1 units

Staking Plan – 4.6 units out

• Jordan Clarkson over 15.5 Points @ 1.88 with Topsport – 1.4 units
• Jordan Clarkson over 24.5 Points @ 6.50 with TAB – 0.1 units
• Jarrett Allen over 11.5 Points @ 1.74 with B365 – 1.2 units
• Jarrett Allen over 14.5 Points @ 2.70 with TAB – 0.3 units
• Lonnie Walker over 12.5 Points @ 1.83 with B365 – 1.1 units
• Lonnie Walker over 14.5 Points @ 2.50 with B365 – 0.3 units
• Lonnie Walker over 19.5 Points @ 6.00 with TAB – 0.1 units
• Lonnie Walker over 24.5 Points @ 19.00 with TAB – 0.1 units
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